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More Fun With Delegate Math!
May 13th 2008 10:58AM
Filed Under:eHillary Clinton, Democrats, Breaking News, Primaries
First Read's Domenico Montanaro makes a good point about why things aren't looking good for Hillary Clinton even though she'll win big in West Virginia today. The problem? Numbers:
Obama has now picked up 25 (with Romer would be 26) [superdelegates] this past week. That's more delegates than Clinton will net out of the West Virginia's 28 delegates at stake. And if Obama rolls out four more, he'd have gained more superdelegates in the past week than there are delegates at stake in West Virginia.
First Read is apparently sorely in need of a copy-editor, but the inference is a valid one. With the superdelegates now going over to Obama in droves, the remaining delegates that Clinton will net from West Virginia and Kentucky will be all but negated. Even James Carville seems to know the end is nigh.
Recent Comments
(Page 1 of 8)Monicagate = Bushfor811:18AMMay 13th 2008
I wish Clinton would stop stirring up racial strife. We don't need that in this country.
The Clintons really depress me.
Old Lady USA11:27AMMay 13th 2008
Hey David - Numbers... numbers... numbers...
Seems like they can be manipulated from all sides.
I just tossed a tip to Brandon. Seems that there is a CSI series in the making over at C-Span.
Seems there was murder committed the evening of August 2, 2007.
Without supporting either party in the voting maze that is our current Old-style political environment, seems like (1) the public will need to gear up on watching paint dry... and (2) that Election 2.0 will find a way to make sausage making interesting.
mafresources11:32AMMay 13th 2008
It is time that America learns who Barack Obama really is and how he has risen to power.
He is nothing more than a puppet of the wealthy, elitist far-left that has hijacked the Democratic Party. Read The New American Disenfranchisement and Support The Obama Truth Week at
http://politicallydrunk.blogspot.com
MichelleG11:38AMMay 13th 2008
It's so sad that the Democratic Party is screwing themselves for the general election again. If McCain wins, they'll only have themselves to blame.
tedman1811:42AMMay 13th 2008
Keep in mind that superdelegates are politicians
bright ones
dumb ones
brave ones
followers - followers - herd mentality -
etc
A whole bunch seemed to move for no reason other then the direction of the wind - rules on how they should act will be fun with Kerry and Richardson and Kennedy apparently going against the will of their people -
So these politicians - not moralists - not clergy - not judges - but politicians - can move easily --with cover -- to HRC
The math is not static it is dynamic
Cover - oh there may be tons of it
E.G. --If the turnout in WV is large enough (300, 400, or 500 thousand (it could be 200K and a joke) that might give HRC 100 150 200 thousand (yes that much if its a large turn out and a rump) more popular votes. Add in say another 150-350K from PR and KY - the only two primaries that are not more cows then people ..... and HRC takes the popular vote lead from BO - maybe not even counting FL I imagine - but for sure if it works out - i.e. IF - with FL included but not MI (and that maye be settled in a way that gives her 10 delegate advantage and say a NET 50,000 MORE legitimate popular votes)
Could still get interesting
Note that no party chieftain has said its over
Note that BO has not said its over
Note that HRC has not said its over
Only the media has said its over - and they have been wrong 3x more often on this campaign then they have been right -- and their ratings would fly if they could switch the story on Wed to a close race - keep watching us and we will keep you informed
BO will win delegate count - but if MI and FL are seated in any way close to the votes - it will be a BO win by say 70 delegates - and yes - one is a majority per Jefferson
But 70 delegates - to include the not understood caucues for more then 70 delegates for BO - that is not a strong argument against
Big States all but IL won by HRC (NC is not big an is REP any way in GE)
Popular Vote (sensitive subject to those like me who voted for Al Gore - vs letting lawyers and rules give the win to Bushy - we DEMS tend to like one person one vote)
Go the REAL other way - the GE Electoral College
Electoral college mock (set each state's winner - give them all the electors - and count and compare)
I bet HRC with CA and TX and OH and PA and MI and FL and NJ and NY and MA will win -- that shows strength -(((I am not saying it means only she would win those staes vs Mccain - but it is what it is - an indicator of relative strength day one)
So when you lay all that out - what do the politicains - called super delegates do?
Do they nominate a man with for sure the clearest cleanest legitimate path to the nomination (very strong ethical argument) -
OR
Do they nominate a woman with a clearer cleaner more doable path to the WH for DEMS
That is a real question.
And I know if BO does not get it - lots of Blacks are RIGHTFULLY angry. But if HRC if all plays as above does not get it - a lot of 60% of the electorate called Women are mad too
Where is Solomon when you need him
BO can end all of the above by losing by less then 20% tonight - maybe even by losing by less then 25%
No matter what vote DEM DEMS - no MCBush
(Also keep in mind what kind of rules are at issue here - these rules are not constitution based - they are not the 10 commandements - they are not even law -they have been changed more times then my three kids diapers in the last 50 years - they are changeable rules of a POLITICIANS' organisation - with someof the key rules only set by by one chairmen and a hand selected group of 25 cronies 0 and otherrules not yet able to drink by law - indeed quite new proportional non winner take all allocation system -- that now has shown to be a dumb system in a close race and will be changed in the future no doubt)
Vote DEM and DEM and DEM 0 but the fat pant suit lady has not sung -
Or
Do we go with a popular and electoral college vote winner -------- If it looks like or is "known to be" that this other candidate truly has a better chance to win and help our constitutency of 99% of the Americans - get us out of IRAQ (no matter how they voted eons ago) and keep the Supreme Court from butchering women'r rights and all of our constitutional protections)
jmore1903111:53AMMay 13th 2008
Obama is the one with racism and hate for America on his mind. Look at the history of belonging to a church for over twenty years that spreads racism and hate and then ask yourself who is racist??
boop195711:56AMMay 13th 2008
Get off the math kick!! Obama is a flawed candidate and if the democratic party gives him nomination out having the left wing of the party to gain power and greed of money (raising funds) and not what is good for American and its people. then so be it.
Hillary supporters will not be a part of this fiasco.
We will never support Obama now or in the fall.
Plain and simple-Obama cannot not get the blue collar vote of middle america.
Shame on all the superdelegates for losing the election to John MCCain because the left of the party wants power, control and money.
Why isn't the news media reporting that fact!!!
NO Obama never!!! Welcome President John McCAin
mubaca12:03PMMay 13th 2008
I just want to touch on one statement made by certain analyst about polls showing educated voters favoring Obama in the poll results. I remember clearly when I register to vote the application did not ask your level of completed education or Job status. Is our Goverment using our SS# to track each of us in the Data Base to find out whether or not we are Educated, I find this very questionable,and if this is true where is the money coming from for these Studies.
I believe Clinton is being knocked down by Analyst
because they just do not like here because she is a Strong Woman with an Education and the history of experience that put each of them to shame lets see who's the last one that will be standing in the end.
Certainly it will not be Obama!
SummitBay12:20PMMay 13th 2008
My fellow Americans we can have the LAST HURRRAAA !
A LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR HILLARY in WV, KY, PR, etc. We the people will show the left-wing biased sexist DNC that we the people chose our president. We can send the "pimped-out super-delegates" home in shame. Even if Hillary runs out of money, HILLARYS NAME WILL BE ON THE BALLOT IN NOVEMBER, and we will make sure we VOTE HILLARYor write in Hillary. . Can you imagine the left-wing bigoted woman-hating DNC "Kennedy boys-club" with their JUNIOR ROOKIE Obama LOOSING to Hillary? There will be a definite power shift to MODERATE with a Hillary win. WE VOTE HILLARY ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE.
GOD BLESS HILLARY AND GOD BLESS AMERICA.
QUARTERHORSE12:25PMMay 13th 2008
there goes knowlesssss again with his wet sticky pants and math problems. we live in a democracy, last time i checked. hillary is going to win the popular vote, that's the only true test of a democracy. and what does it mean in a democracy to leave out the votes of millions of people in those two states that were disenfranchised ? it means that howard dean, brazille and the dnc have rigged this election. hey, knowless, what's up with the aol straw poll showing hillary with such a bib lead over ohummer ? cant you rig it ?
JOHN MANN12:28PMMay 13th 2008
"Truth is more powerfull than a two-edged sword." The MATH is what killed Clinton.
moviecash12:29PMMay 13th 2008
I am 58 years old and a life long Dem.
I can't support Obama. I just don't trust him. Do You? If your not black can you support this man. He belonged to a racist church run by a racist minister. I know, he didn't remember. Bill Clinton didn't inhale.
If you are truly afraid then help me form Democrats for McCain, if someone already hasn't. Any interest?
Barb12:38PMMay 13th 2008
Barack Obama to me is a man of good changes for this country. I would never vote for Clinton. She is a cool calculating phony who is driven by power and constantly bashing Barack Obama. I am tired of her fake smiles, her phony attitude. She doesn't care at all about the blue collar workers and how can people think she really is one of them with her millions of dollars. I am a white woman in my 30s and my vote goes to Barack Obama. He will work to try to get things done instead of fighting with people like the Clintons are noted for. I am so sick of the Clinton years with their controversies that always got hushed up. Please people we need to change things in this country. I finally see a candidate who only comes along once in a lifetime that is really concerned for us. He is not a phony person bent on his own personal gains like Hillary is. I wish she would withdraw so we don't have to listen to her anymore and her phony speeches. He wants to get things done so I think she should just bow out graciously. No one wants her in the race. I also think John Edwards would be a great vice president candidate too. They both would help each other in the need states. I don't want Hillary to be the VP because she could stick a knife in Barack's back. I don't trust her. You can't trust a power hungry person. Please let's concentrate on Barack Obama as our democratic presidential candidate and John Edwards as our vice president candidate. That is by far a winning team.
Joyce12:48PMMay 13th 2008
Obama's VP will be the honest well thought of woman from Kansas, Kathleen Sebelius, honorable lady Governor of Kansas. She is in top spot!
victoryzone12:50PMMay 13th 2008
My fellow Americans we can have the LAST HURRRAAAHHH !
A LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR HILLARY in WV, KY, PR, etc.
We the VOTERS can show the left-wing biased sexist DNC that we the people chose our president. We can send the "pimped-out super-delegates" home in shame.
Even if Hillary runs out of money, her name will be on the ballot in November. we VOTE HILLARY or write in Hillary.
Can you imagine the left-wing bigoted "Kennedy boys-club" with their JUNIOR ROOKIE Obama LOOSING to Hillary?
There will be a definite power shift to MODERATE in the DNC with a Hillary win. WE VOTE HILLARY ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE.
GOD BLESS HILLARY AND GOD BLESS AMERICA.
Victor12:50PMMay 13th 2008
My fellow Americans we can have the LAST HURRRAAAHHH !
A LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR HILLARY in WV, KY, PR, etc.
We the VOTERS can show the left-wing biased sexist DNC that we the people chose our president. We can send the "pimped-out super-delegates" home in shame.
Even if Hillary runs out of money, her name will be on the ballot in November. we VOTE HILLARY or write in Hillary.
Can you imagine the left-wing bigoted "Kennedy boys-club" with their JUNIOR ROOKIE Obama LOOSING to Hillary?
There will be a definite power shift to MODERATE in the DNC with a Hillary win. WE VOTE HILLARY ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE.
GOD BLESS HILLARY AND GOD BLESS AMERICA.
neil12:57PMMay 13th 2008
believe or not.alot of these super delegates do not like the clintons..and can't wait to get them out of washington..these are people that know the clintons better than all of us..these goverment people have worked with the clintons for years closely and now can't stand them..the clintons are thugs,they have tried to bully people for years and people are tired of them..they think its gods destiny for them to rule..and everything they say or do is right..i say send them back to hope..i pray she loses her ny senator seat /...
tedman1812:58PMMay 13th 2008
moviecash
With now three posts pro HRC
I encourage you and all DEMS - true DEMS
Not matter what - no matter why - no matter if ugly or clean - or WHO
Vote DEM --- McBush will kill our kids and bankrupt the nation - while stealing the Supreme Court and our civil and constitutional rights -
BO supporters if HRC gets it - vote DEM
HRC supporters if BO gets it - vote DEM
See their policy positions they are correct needed and near identical
Compare with McBush - you will find Bush is no moderate but a very conservative hawk
ezrider1:01PMMay 13th 2008
Hillary should not even win a dog contest. I agree with barb. She is a phony power driven woman. She can't even handle her husband nevermind a country. Vote for Barack. He will change the country and get us out of this difficult time. I think he is willing to work alongside republicans for a solution. We need a candidate like him who will strive to work together instead of the fighting and name calling Clinton does.
Clinton brings us down. Obama brings us the positive way of thinking. I get depressed listening to Hillary and her unethical politics that no one takes her to task for. GO BARACK!!!!!! YOU WILL WIN IN 2008!!!!!
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