Search
About This Blog
Resources
Blog Roll
- Captain's Quarters
- Cliff Schecter
- CNN's Political Ticker
- Conservative Grapevine
- Crooks & Liars
- Daily Kos
- Drudge
- FactCheck.org
- Huffington Post
- Instapundit
- Little Green Footballs
- News Bloggers
- Political-Buzz
- Power Line
- RedState
- Slate - Trailhead
- Swampland
- Talking Points Memo
- The Daily Dish
- The Plank
- The Young Turks
- Wonkette
Predicting WV
My prediction two weeks ago on Indiana and North Carolina proved to be total folly, today's foretelling will likely prove to be superfluous.
Today West Virginia Democrats cast their votes in a primary. They have 28 delegates.
Hillary Clinton will win West Virginia. And with a comfortable margin (8-10 points).
But it won't matter.
It's great that the voting continues and Mountain State Democrats have a chance to be heard, but the debate is essentially over. At this juncture, a rally of support and its demonstration for Clinton is an opportunity for Hillary to exit with some dignity. But that's about it.
Now quitters never win, and Clinton gets kudos for that. But now winning is not within her muster. Obama must fall big - in a way that causes Super Delegates to jump ship en masse - which is not a scenario anywhere rooted in reality.
So...today's win in West Virginia is great for the voted and Hillary Clinton but it's impact is nil.
Recent Comments
(Page 1 of 6)TJ3:19PMMay 13th 2008
WHY ARE PEOPLE STILL VOTING HILLARY EVEN AFTER THE MEDIA DECLARED THE RACE OVER IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
WHY?
WHY?
WHY?
THEY ARE TELLING US THEY WONT RECOGNIZE OBAMA AS WINNER
THEY WONT VOTE HIM IN NOVEMBER
CRYING "RACISM" AINT GONNA DO IT.
OBAMA AND HIS BUNCH OF LOSERSI DNC WILL HAND THIS TO MCCAIN..
dani3:22PMMay 13th 2008
I say Hillary wins by around 80%
tedman183:41PMMay 13th 2008
10% - that is a loss for HRC as its all how you do vis expectations (Like stock prices and earnings news0
The general expectation is HRC gets 25% more votes then BO. (20-30 is tossed around everywhere)
25% (for the poster that said 80%) is a win of 63 to 37 or thereabouts. Approximately 25% between theme
80% would be HRC at 80% and BO at 20% or a spread of 60% points - no one expects that and I will bet BO's Grandmother it will not happen here
I can see three scenarios for the vote and reaction
HRC wins with say 60-40 and its a story but nothing changes anywhere anyhow
HRC wins with any number in her coloumn starting with 7 - say 70 to 30 - it is HEADLINE time and maybe game changing - IMO - that is a 40% spread. I do not expect it - no one really expects it - and it would have heads spinning and the pundits talking and the supers nervous and calling up friends fast and furious
HRC wins with say 65-35 and its a 30% spread - its a great story and it might be a story with legs but I doubt it changes anything
Katherine3:49PMMay 13th 2008
Yay! Go Hillary! I hope you have a wonderful night!
Once again you have been outspent in W. Virginia, and Obama has more big tops supporting him, and Obama also had more offices opened in West Virginia, but I think you can win it, despite all the adversity! We love you!
--Also, Hillary, don't listen to the Obamalamadingdongs, they are more concerned with beating you, than they are with getting a democrat in the White House. They cannot look ahead.
Hillary or McCain
Never Obama.
bonbon3:56PMMay 13th 2008
it is not over until it's over, and I am so proud of Hillary, she is showing what kind of a President she will make, one who is in it for the long run, someone not AFRAID to meet the enemy, and give them hell while she's doing it.
this is the one and only candidate ready, willing and able to produce the change this country needs.
Her dignity, and grace, her strength, and her solutions will make this country, strong, and she can bring it up and into the Great Nation it once was, and can be again.
Hillary has always been about change, but she wants change that will be effective, and will make POSITIVE differences in the lives of all the American public, not just a certain handfull.
Hillary's loyalty, and patriotism has never been brought into question, we have known she loves this Great Nation. and the people in it.
No one had to back her into a corner, until she had no other choice, to force her to wear a flag pin, and she certainly has always saluted our FLAG, No one has ever heard her say, she can't salute our FLAG, or sing our National Anthem, because she does not want to take side's. Or because she does not want people in other country's to think she has taken sides, against them, by honoring our FLAG, and our heritage.
imagine not wanting people in Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, or the Mid East etc, etc, etc, to see a loyal citizen of the United States of America saluting their own Flag, or taking pride in the country they call home. Hillary does because she loves this country, and the people in it, and because she is proud of us all. not because she is forced to, to make a show, an act of it if you wiil...but because it is a natural part of who she is.
what we need is a president who wants to work, and make things better, for all of us.
HILLARY CLINTON IS THAT PERSON,
VOTE FOR HILLARY ALL THE WAY YES WE WILL...
Leslie4:02PMMay 13th 2008
Katherine,
I'm outspending Hillary's campaign right about now. It is broke!! What I can't believe is that 17% of West Virginian adults have college degrees. Those people need to come out of those hills or mountains or wherever they are congregating and go to school. Now I understand why they are voting for Hillary. That's the only name they can recognize. They probably can't read anything else!!
Katherine4:27PMMay 13th 2008
Leslie,
I always pictured you as black, I could be wrong, but that's ok. For an instant I felt like slapping an entire page with some black statistics running the full gamut of social, educational, health, and crime topics, but then I decided not to, it's just too depressing.
See, what it gets down to, is that we both know that you are making fun of white people, and a lot of poor white people in Appalachia, and I don't even care if YOU are white--what you are forgetting is this: You do not need a college degree to vote!
**Maybe you need to consider this: There are a lot of white people who do not have a college degree. MULL OVER THAT for a minute, and then think about what would happen in Nov.
CarolJ4:27PMMay 13th 2008
who cares..she's done..she is the Gimmick candidate..with the Gimmick platform and the Clintons are the Gimmick Family. Hear Chelsea is heading down to Puerto Rico to campaign for dear old mom..who is paying for that with the campaign 20 million in debt? Doesn't she have a job..oh that's right the hedge fund..with the six figure salary run by a Clinton donor. The Clintons are all the same...corrupt.
HilllaryMcCain4:31PMMay 13th 2008
The Next McGovern?
by John B. Judd
Obama may still get the nomination, but his loss tonight deals a harsh blow to his electibility arguments.
Hillary Clinton won a decisive ten-round decision over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary, but she didn't score a knockout. The struggle continues. Clinton still has virtually no chance of overtaking Obama's delegate lead or his edge in the popular vote. And the superdelegates will be loath to ignore this advantage.
######Meanwhile, Obama's weaknesses as a general election candidate grow more apparent with each successive primary.
Clinton clearly carrys the Flag in the electoral vote and If Obama is nominated Hillary supporters will flock to McCain, a moderate Republican
Will Obama then go the way of McGovern? Will he win one state?
mik4:53PMMay 13th 2008
Hillary last I L L U S I O N !!!!!!!!!
Leslie4:56PMMay 13th 2008
Kastherine,
I've always pictured you as a racist, and that has not changed. I said 17% of West Virginians have college degrees. I did not say WHITE West Virginians. Because you can't see anything other than your intense hatred for one race, you think everyone else is as polarized as you. It doesn't matter whether I am Black or White, it doesn't matter whether the 83% of West Virginians that lack college degrees are Black or White. What is terrible is that they rank at the bottom of the country in terms of a college education. Your irrational anger towards Barack Obama due to the color of his skin is scary. Something obviously happened in your life to lead you to this much hate and anger. Whatever it is, you need therapy, and quick. You will soon not only be a danger to yourself, but a danger to others....
vlg4:57PMMay 13th 2008
"Political courage is essential in the President. Clinton has demonstrated it. Obama has not."
Truth Detector4:58PMMay 13th 2008
If Hillary was always expected to win by 70/30 in West Virginia how can she claim a major victory if that happens? Another example of what the word "is" is.
WASHINGTON — Barack Obama's wave of superdelegate endorsements puts him within reach of the Democratic presidential nomination by the end of the primary season on June 3 – even if he loses half of the remaining six contests.
The Illinois senator has picked up 26 superdelegates in the past week. At that pace, he will reach the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination – 2,025 – in the next three weeks, when delegates from the remaining primaries are included.
Hillary Clinton's best chance to slow Obama is to move the goal posts. She will get that chance May 31 when the Democratic National Committee's rules panel considers proposals to seat the delegates that had been stripped from Florida and Michigan. Those two states violated national party rules by holding their primaries in January and lost their delegates.
mik5:09PMMay 13th 2008
L E S L I E W A Y T O G O O O !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Peggy5:25PMMay 13th 2008
It's interesting to hear the Obama camp say he didn't campaign in West Virginia. On then news today, a number of talking heads have mentioned that, while he didn't visit the state this week, he still outspend Clinton 2 to 1 on media buys. I'm not sure which is worse, lying about campaigning there like he did in Florida where he also ran campaign ads, or dismissing the people of this state like he has done to the voters in Florida and Michigan. And this is the man who claims he can unify the party.
Truth Detector5:29PMMay 13th 2008
James Carville has been one of Hillary Clinton's most energetic defenders, but on Monday he all but declared Barack Obama will become the Democratic nominee for president.
Speaking to students at Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina, Carville argued Clinton should stay in through the final nominating contest in early June, but said the Democratic tide appears to be moving in Obama's direction.
WV VOTER5:30PMMay 13th 2008
James Carville has been one of Hillary Clinton's most energetic defenders, but on Monday he all but declared Barack Obama will become the Democratic nominee for president.
Speaking to students at Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina, Carville argued Clinton should stay in through the final nominating contest in early June, but said the Democratic tide appears to be moving in Obama's direction.
Leslie5:31PMMay 13th 2008
Peggy,
There are a lot of Floridians who don't think Obama dismissed them at all. Myself included. As a matter of fact, we are having a big bash for him May 22nd. I'll be there in my Cavalli and Louboutins...you should join us!
WV VOTER5:32PMMay 13th 2008
James Carville has been one of Hillary Clinton's most energetic defenders, but on Monday he all but declared Barack Obama will become the Democratic nominee for president.
Speaking to students at Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina, Carville argued Clinton should stay in through the final nominating contest in early June, but said the Democratic tide appears to be moving in Obama's direction.
Latest Politics Headlines
Most Commented On Posts
Most Recent Comments
Politics Video
'Team Obama' watching you?Barack Obama's presidential campaign is turning into a machine. CNN's Tom Foreman reports. (July 18) | |
Obama's overseas tripMcCain criticizes Obama as the presumptive Democratic nominee heads overseas. CNN's Candy Crowley reports. (July 18) | |
Shinedown 'Devours' Politics on New SongBrent Smith, lead singer of Shinedown, tells AP Entertainment about their controversial new single, 'Devour.' According to Smith, the song was written for the troops in Iraq. (July 17) | |
Bill Clinton ready to campaignThe former president says he is ready to campaign for Barack Obama and responds to Jackson's comments. (July 17) | |
Diplomats in IranPresident Bush is reportedly now ready to station diplomats in Iran for the first time in almost 30 years. (July 17) | |
| « See More Politics Video | |
Declare Yourself is a campaign that encourages young Americans to register and vote.
REGISTER TO VOTE NOW AT:www.declareyourself.org
Leslie3:12PMMay 13th 2008
Clinton will win West Virginia by a huge margin, at least 40 points. It won't mean a darn thing....