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For the Numbers Junkies


We're down to the final 3 contests of the Democratic race for the nomination: Puerto Rico (June 1), Montana, and South Dakota (both on June 3). A total of 86 pledged delegates will be decided pending the outcome.

Hillary Clinton won Kentucky by 35 percentage points to net a total of 23 delegates. She also won by a total of roughly 150,000 votes.

Barack Obama won Oregon by 18 percentage points to net a total of 10 delegates (with 94% of precincts reporting). He won by a total of roughly 102,000 votes.

By nearly every count, with last night's additions, Obama has now earned a majority of all pledged delegates. There are 3,253 total pledged delegates in the contest, and Obama has guaranteed that when the final primary results are tallied on June 3, he will have won a majority of those delegates selected via the vote. That is true whether or not one includes Florida and Michigan delegate totals (however one might allocate them).

There are 795 Democratic Superdelegates. According to Real Clear Politics, Obama now leads Clinton in this category by 27: 306 to 279. The reason the pledged delegate threshold is important, is that many superdelegates are on record as saying that they will not go against the final winner in pledged delegates.

Lastly, for the very contentious popular vote tallies, we must tackle the issue of how to come to an agreed upon number. These numbers vary widely depending on how or whether you tally Florida, Michigan, and all the states that held caucuses. To my mind the whole question is rather beside the point, since, as it stands, the Democratic primary is a hodgepodge of contests whose main purpose is to give us a winner in terms of delegates, not individual votes. Whether we should amend this process for future races is another matter.

Kos makes what I think are the right points about this issue in a post that can be read here.

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