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For the Numbers Junkies
May 21st 2008 2:21PM
Filed Under:eHillary Clinton, Democrats, Barack Obama, Featured Stories

We're down to the final 3 contests of the Democratic race for the nomination: Puerto Rico (June 1), Montana, and South Dakota (both on June 3). A total of 86 pledged delegates will be decided pending the outcome.
Hillary Clinton won Kentucky by 35 percentage points to net a total of 23 delegates. She also won by a total of roughly 150,000 votes.
Barack Obama won Oregon by 18 percentage points to net a total of 10 delegates (with 94% of precincts reporting). He won by a total of roughly 102,000 votes.
By nearly every count, with last night's additions, Obama has now earned a majority of all pledged delegates. There are 3,253 total pledged delegates in the contest, and Obama has guaranteed that when the final primary results are tallied on June 3, he will have won a majority of those delegates selected via the vote. That is true whether or not one includes Florida and Michigan delegate totals (however one might allocate them).
There are 795 Democratic Superdelegates. According to Real Clear Politics, Obama now leads Clinton in this category by 27: 306 to 279. The reason the pledged delegate threshold is important, is that many superdelegates are on record as saying that they will not go against the final winner in pledged delegates.
Lastly, for the very contentious popular vote tallies, we must tackle the issue of how to come to an agreed upon number. These numbers vary widely depending on how or whether you tally Florida, Michigan, and all the states that held caucuses. To my mind the whole question is rather beside the point, since, as it stands, the Democratic primary is a hodgepodge of contests whose main purpose is to give us a winner in terms of delegates, not individual votes. Whether we should amend this process for future races is another matter.
Kos makes what I think are the right points about this issue in a post that can be read here.
Recent Comments
(Page 1 of 10)Rae2:56PMMay 21st 2008
Super delegates are voting for Corperate America when voting for Obama..Obama isn't voting for the American citizen, he's voting for more of the same..Obama voted for the rebuilding of Iraq, while blasting Bush and Cheney for spending 9 million a day there..Check out his voting record, and see for yourself!!
http://obama.senate.gov/votes/index.cfm?start=21
sheila3:00PMMay 21st 2008
To Bert:
Please take your panties out of the crack of your butt.
Zack3:06PMMay 21st 2008
Obama won the pledged delegates, it will be unethical for the super-delegates to go against the will of the people, don't forget, most of them will have to run for re-election, so their credibility is on the line.
we are more likely to see more super-delegates to jump to the Obama wagon before it's too late.
no one wants to be called he or she went against the people, the people and the democratic party and only supported Obama when they were sure Hillary had lost.
so this thing will be over way before the convention and mark my words.
clanmcswan3:08PMMay 21st 2008
What a joke the media has become. They're as lame as Obama, the DNC, Nancy Pelosi, Donna Brazile and all the other scammers. The millions of REAL Democrats recognize this. The others are all living in some psychadelic fantasy with "rock stars" in their glazed over eyes. It's not even worth pointing out research, good judgement and common sense anymore. They only know how to chant. How pathetic.
Rae3:09PMMay 21st 2008
I WAS an Obama supporter..I voted for Obama for the Illinois Senate after hearing his speechs..I, like a lot of college educated people (who admits I can't spell without spell check) wanted to believe in
Barack Obama..Being a concerned American I wanted to argue with other's who were against Obama..
So, I watched all the debates from the first to the last..(So far) I watched CNN and FOX networks to see what each station was talking about...I researched and researched and researched on the web...I ignored the Larry Sinclair hype, I gave Rev. Wright the benifit of a daubt, I even ignored Michelles
"Frieudan slip of the tongue." I listened as each super deligate gave their support to Obama, and thier reasons for thier support..
I went to Obama's web site and really thought here's a guy I can believe in..Then I checked Obama's voting record on the Illinois Government web site..EDWARDS was correct in their first debate, to bring up Obama's voting record!! Obama did NOT vote for any of the issues he runs his campaign on, and the issues MOST important to the AMERICAN PEOPLE..Well, I thought; maybe I should check Hillary's Government site to see if and what she voted on...
When it comes to Hillary or Obama, Hillary puts her votes where her mouth is..Obama missed 40 % of the votes, where hillary missed 28%..Obama DID NOT VOTE to bring our troops home from Iraq..(YET HILLARY VOTED YES) (Mccain missed 58% of the vote, BUT WHO CARES?)
That may not be important to you, but it is important to the AMERICANS who have family and friends in Iraq who he lied to..Obama didn't vote for green fuel funding (green jobs) even though its come up several times..That is important to many of us without good paying jobs, and paying $4.00 for gas at the pump..OBama didn't vote for ANYTHING he runs his campign on...To ME, that is a lie to the AMERICAN people who want to believe in him..
RACE is not a factor to anyone but Obama when he is called on the carpet to answer the "hard" questions..Leave Machelle alone!! What are WE allowed to talk about??
Although RACE is a factor when 80 to 90 % of the black population is voting for Obama BECAUSE he is BLACK instead of looking at the issues..(EVEN though the "white" people know by now he is both..)
AS I watched the news last week, OBAMA was in South Carolina saying he voted to protect the farmer from floods and windstorms..So, I checked his vote..Guess what?? He lied to them also!!
5/07/08 On the Amendment S.Amdt. 4719 to S.Amdt. 4707 to S. 2284 (Flood Insurance Reform and Modernization Act of 2007) To provide for the optional purchase of insurance against loss resulting from physical damage to or loss of real property or personal property
related thereto located in the United States
arising from any flood or windstorm. Amendment Rejected (19-74) Obama Not Voting. Although I do agree it is a personal responsability to protect ones property by having insurance, but why lie about it??
Although, I must agree that OBAMA does vote on some issues..THEY are not the ones he runs his campign on..DID YOU know he voted against a bill which would lower the gas prices? He also voted FOR raising
taxes on the middle class and college students!!
3/13/08 On the Motion (Motion to Waive C.B.A. Cornyn Amdt. No. 4242) To protect the family budget by providing for a budget point of order AGAINST legislation that INCREASES income taxes on taxpayers,
including hard-working MIDDLE-INCOME FAMILIES, entrepreneurs, and COLLAGE STUDENTS. Motion
Rejected (58-40, 3/5 majority required) Nay (voted NO!!) I THOUGHT THIS WAS HIS "BASE".
4/22/08 On the Cloture Motion S. 1315
A bill to amend title 38, United States Code, to enhance life insurance benefits for disabled veterans, and for other purposes. Cloture Motion Agreed to (94-0, 3/5 majority required) OBAMA Not
Voting (REMEBER HIS PROMISE TO OUR SERVICE PEOPLE?)
2/26/08 On the Cloture Motion S. 2633
A bill to provide for the SAFE REDEPLOYMENT of UNITED STATES TROOPS from IRAQ. Cloture Motion Agreed to (70-24, 3/5 majority required) OBAMBA NOT VOTING (Hillary voted YES!) HOW COULD OBAMA BE AGAINST THE WAR IN IRAQ BUT NOT VOTE TO BRING THEM HOME?? NOT ONCE, BUT TWICE..
4/03/08 On the Resolution S.Res. 501
A resolution HONERING the SACRIFICE of the members of the UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES who have been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan..Resolution Agreed to (95-0) OBAMA NOT VOTING (NO words needed...)
2/27/08 On the Cloture Motion S. 2634
A bill to require a report setting forth the global strategy of the UNTITED STATES to combat and defeat AL QAEDA and its affiliates. Cloture Motion Agreed to (89-3, 3/5 majority required) OBAMA NOT VOTING (LETS SIT DOWN AND TALK TO THEM)
http://obama.senate.gov/votes/index.cfm?start=21
4/10/08 On Passage of the Bill H.R. 3221
A bill to provide needed housing reform and for other purposes. Bill Passed (84-12) OBAMA Not Voting ANOTHER BROKEN PROMISE TO THOSE LOOSING THEIR HOMES (NOT ME) ARE YOU ONE OF THESE PEOPLE??
BUT HE VOTED FOR THE REBUILDING OF IRAQ??
3/14/08 On the Amendment S.Amdt. 4245 to S.Con.Res. 70 (No short title on file) To restore full funding for the international affairs budget, in SUPPORT of the reconstruction of IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN, nuclear
nonproliferation, foreign assistance, fighting global AIDS, promoting sustainable development, and other efforts, with an offset. Amendment Agreed to (73-23) Yea (OBAMA VOTED YES!) THE NEWS SHOWED IRAQ HAS
ENOUGH RESOURCES TO REBUILD IRAQ THEMSELVES..JUST YESTERDAY OBAMA BLASTED BUSH AND CHENY FOR THE 9 MILLION A DAY THEY ARE SPENDING THERE, BUT NEVER ONCE TOLD AMERICANS HE VOTED FOR THE BILL ALSO!!!
THIS IS YOUR TAX MONEY AND MINE!!
3/14/08 On the Amendment S.Amdt. 4339 to S.Con.Res. 70 (No short title on file)
To provide for a deficit-neutral reserve fund for providing an above the line Federal income tax deduction for individuals purchasing health insurance outside the workplace. Amendment Rejected (45-51)
Nay, OBAMA VOTED no!) SO CORPORATIONS CAN GET A TAX DEDUCTION FOR INSURANCE, BUT INDIVIDUALS CAN'T??
3/13/08 On the Motion (Motion to Waive C.B.A. DeMint Amdt. No. 4340)
To create a point of order AGAINST bills that would RAISE gasoline prices. Motion Rejected (39-59, 3/5 majority required) Nay, HE VOTED AGAINST A BILL WHICH WOULD LOWER GAS PRICES AT THE PUMP!! OBAMA said
we tried it in Illinois and it didn't work..Oh, really?? The price of gas was reduced and the roads were still repaired, SO why didn't it work??
3/13/08 On the Amendment S.Amdt. 4378 to S.Con.Res. 70 (No short title on file)
To protect family businesses and farmers without increasing our nation's debt by providing for an estate tax that sets the exemption at $5 million and the rate at 35 percent, with the benefits of the
exemption recaptured for estates over $100 million, paid for by CLOSING TAX LOOPHOLES that allow offshore deferral of compensation and transactions entered into solely for the purpose of AVOIDING TAXATION. Amendment Rejected (23-77) Nay. A vote against corperate greed AND for the small farmer, BUT HE'S GOING TO CHANGE OUR GOVERNMENT??
GO FIGURE!! Is this the guy YOU want to vote for?? WHAT "CHANGE" IS OBAMA TALKING ABOUT WHEN HE DOESN'T EVEN VOTE ON THE ISSUES HE RUNS HIS CAMPAIGN ON?? WHO ARE OUR SUPER DELAGATS VOTING FOR?? CORPORATE
AMERICA OR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE?? I sure don't know..We can't wait another four years to find out Obama is wrong for AMERICA!!!
Charlie's Angel3:14PMMay 21st 2008
bert
I'm with you Bert, but I have not given up on Hillary yet. I am still hoping fot the popular vote to be counted! How can they ignore the peoples vote? If and when they announce Obama as the nominee for the Democratic Party, I will send Howard Dean my ripped up voter registration card and re-register as a Republican. Hell, I might even donate to John McCain.
I will not vote for Obama. If Hillary called me herself,I will not vote for Obama. If they try to put Hillary as VP they still will not get my vote.
Hillary supporter stay united. NO OBAMA
Vote Hillary or Vote McCain
Agnes3:15PMMay 21st 2008
How will you truly know the "will of the people" until all the votes are cast and counted?
summitbay3:29PMMay 21st 2008
ADULTS, PARENTS
Here is the problem - Kids with NO life experience are telling their parents to vote for Obama. We have seen, the youth vote for Obama is a dreamy, whimsical vote just as the American Idol. Most of the kids dont know much more than playstation and texting. Kids are naiive by nature, with innocent minds, often dwelling in alternate reality, they dont have the savvy to gauge the consequences of having an anti-American racist like Obama in office, who surrounded himself by subverseive elements, ties to radical islam, and terrorist sympathisers. You are the adult, you should be telling your kids why not Obama. Dont be a retard like McGovern, who endoresed Obama because his grandkids are gaga about Obama. How totally idiotic.
HILLARY SUPPORTERS... VOTE HILLARY OR MCCAIN.
anag3:39PMMay 21st 2008
Zack3:06PMMay 21st 2008 -it will be unethical for the super-delegates to go against the will of the people,
************
The rules are the superdelegates vote for the best person who can "win"the GE.
Since you are changing the rules - following your logic - Kennedy, Kerry, Richardson, Byrd and other superdelegates will have to switch from Obama and vote for Hillary since she won in their states.
Using your logic - Hillary wins again
John3:42PMMay 21st 2008
Rae, I'm tired of rereading your silly post. You were never an Obama supporter and my best guess is that you never finished high school.
Barack Obama has been a called a communist (see Katherine's numerous diatribes) and now you're calling him a tool of corporate America. Hmmm. Now, how does that work? Will he amalgamate all the corporations into one giant business and require them all to share the wealth? What an interesting take on Das Kapital! Marx and Engels are spinning in their respective tombs.
And, to Charlie's Spawn of Satan: you so respect Mrs. Clinton that you would ignore her advice? I have more respect for her than you do.
John in Philadelphia
OBAMA '08
David S.3:44PMMay 21st 2008
Summitbay - get real. You blast the youth of today, but here is a news flash: older people don't necessarily educate themselves on the candidates either. Wisdom does not always come with age. By the way, how old are you? Based on your comment and the childish lies it contains, I am guessing about 12.
roger in the valley3:44PMMay 21st 2008
Charlie's Angel3:14PMMay 21st 2008
I'm with you Bert, but I have not given up on Hillary yet. I am still hoping fot the popular vote to be counted! How can they ignore the peoples vote? If and when they announce Obama as the nominee for the Democratic Party, I will send Howard Dean my ripped up voter registration card and re-register as a Republican. Hell, I might even donate to John McCain.
I will not vote for Obama. If Hillary called me herself,I will not vote for Obama. If they try to put Hillary as VP they still will not get my vote.
Hillary supporter stay united. NO OBAMA
Vote Hillary or Vote McCain
ANGEL, I SURE HOPE YOU WILL CHANGE YOUR MIND. I HAVE TWO SONS IN THEIR 20'S. I REALLY DONT WANT TO SEE MCCAIN IN THE WHITE HOUSE AND THIS IRAQ DISASTER GO ON FOR ANOTHER 4-8 YEARS. MY SONS ARE ALL I HAVE LEFT.
anag3:49PMMay 21st 2008
Hillary supporters "HOPE" that things will "CHANGE".
These words are the base of Obama's campaign. It's okay for Obama to say it but when Hillary supporters say it - they are meaningless and empty words.
DOUBLE STANDARDS
Obama's HOPE and CHANGE means the same as Hillary's HOPE and CHANGE.
Jason3:52PMMay 21st 2008
I have voted Democrat for the last 20 years but I sure as hell will vote republican and vote for McCain if Nobama is the nominee. If 80 to 90% if the black population is voting for Nobama because he is black, then I have the same right to vote WHITE. Fair is fair. But more importantly, Nobama does not have enough experience to run a country and his is a racist liar. He is the anti-christ.
The Democratic Party knows that if they don't nominate Hillary as the Presidential candidiate then 30 to 40% of the Hillary voters will vote for McCain and the Repulicans will have the white house. The DNC needs to give the Michigan and Florida delegates to Hillary. But popular vote, not delegate or caucus, Hillary is the winner.
God help the DNC if they make a mistake and nominate Nobama!
JOHN MANN3:52PMMay 21st 2008
All you Clinton joy-sticks need to get the Math straight. CLINTON ONLY GAINED ONE DELEGATE IN TUESDAY NIGHT'S 2 RACES.
In Oregon, Obama won and recieved 30 delegates. In Kentucky Clinton won and Obama got 14 delegates. That brings his 44.
In Oregon, Clinton lost and got 18 delegates. In Kentucky, Clinton won and got 37 delegates. That brings her total delegates won in Tuesday night's contest to 45.
As a result, Clinton rounds out with ONE more delegates than Obama on Tuesday night's races.
The mirror-image results did little to change the direction of the all-important election math that favors Obama.
That, combined with Oregon's results, gave Obama 1,961 out of the 2,026 needed. Clinton has 1,777.
Tuesday night's contests give Obama a majority of the delegates elected in all 56 primaries and caucuses combined; as distinct from nearly 800 superdelegates who hold the balance of power at the convention.
Peggy4:02PMMay 21st 2008
David, I couldn't stay up late enough to get the final total on the votes in Oregon. When I went to bed, approximately 76% of the precincts had reported and Obama held a lead of roughly 86,000 votes. However, the entire Kentucky vote was in and Hillary won by around 249,000 votes, not 150,000. If you're going to play the numbers game, try and get it right.
David C4:05PMMay 21st 2008
Rae,
Are you really Howard Wolfson or Terry mcCauliffe or Harold Ickes in disguise?
JOHN MANN4:07PMMay 21st 2008
All you Clinton joy-sticks need to get the Math straight. CLINTON ONLY GAINED ONE DELEGATE IN TUESDAY NIGHT'S 2 RACES.
In Oregon, Obama won and recieved 30 delegates. In Kentucky Clinton won and Obama got 14 delegates. That brings his 44.
In Oregon, Clinton lost and got 18 delegates. In Kentucky, Clinton won and got 37 delegates. That brings her total delegates won in Tuesday night's contest to 45.
As a result, Clinton rounds out with ONE more delegates than Obama on Tuesday night's races.
The mirror-image results did little to change the direction of the all-important election math that favors Obama.
That, combined with Oregon's results, gave Obama 1,961 out of the 2,026 needed. Clinton has 1,777.
Tuesday night's contests give Obama a majority of the delegates elected in all 56 primaries and caucuses combined; as distinct from nearly 800 superdelegates who hold the balance of power at the convention
dr jay4:08PMMay 21st 2008
David Knowles wrote:
>To my mind the whole question [of popular votes and
>how/whether to count them] is rather beside the
>point, since, as it stands, the Democratic primary is
>a hodgepodge of contests whose main purpose is to
>give us a winner in terms of delegates, not
>individual votes.
OK, fine. So how about the *delegates* from Florida and Michigan? I suspect that voters in those states believed (correctly) that the Democratic Party did away with non-binding "beauty contest" primaries decades ago, and that they were voting for delegates. So does Barack really have "a majority of those delegates selected by the vote"?
Anyway, the numbers that this "numbers junkie" really wants to see at this point are electoral votes. Unfortunately, the only person I've read lately who even seems to know they exist (or will exist) is Karl Rove. But there's no particular reason to believe he's lying, at least not for personal or partisan gain, and his numbers look a lot better for Hillary than for Obama. Enough better to make the ridiculous "Hillary or McCain in '08" comments that we sometimes see here into a prophecy rather than a slogan.
Similarly, I spoke last night with a college classmate who happens to be a Democratic candidate for Congress from a big swing state. (And who BTW is an "older" (over 50) white woman who supports Obama.) I asked about Obama's chances of carrying her state in November, and she said "No way, unless he picks [that state's governor] for VP." In the rural parts of her district, and probably her part of the state as a whole, "They call him Hussein." The trouble is, there are probably half a dozen or more such states (certainly if you count all of those that I've seen some Obamaniacs claim will be "in play"), and only one VP nomination to hand out.
It's possible that with the war, the economy, and just maybe some puncturing of the McCain aura (or some actual, accurate, non-code-worded discussion of issues, but I'm not holding my breath), this will be such a bad year for the GOP that even I (a zero- experience, left-wing Jewish atheist scientist from New York City by way of Harvard) could get elected President just by having a (D) next to my name. But it's also possible that Barack will leave us in Dukakis territory. And if I were a superdelegate, or a member of the Rules Committee or whoever will decide about seating FL and MI, I might just want to think a little about that rather than blindly fall in line with what I'll call "a majority of those delegates selected by the vote, if you leave out those whom we so far haven't decided to count." Haven't we already learned about not counting all the votes in Florida?
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bert2:30PMMay 21st 2008
david,
I know you obama supporters truely beleive we are gullible and beleive all his (obama)nicey-nice talk now, but you can't be serious right?, I know you people think if we don't follow the "messiah" we are racist, you know what, we don't care what you think anymore, beleive what you want, millions will not be sheep, following your "messiah", no matter who ask (sorry Hillary). I can not and will not vote for someone just because they are the nominee of a certain party, and if anyone does then shame on them!!I have been a demacrat for 30 years, I find they generally go along with my own ideas and usally have a decent nominee, (they could have, but they chose to ignore her),to vote for someone just because of which party they belong too is insane, I for one, want to beleive in the person I help put in office, I want someone with good judgement, good character, (yes, these things matter), I want to feel like I can trust that person, I feel NONE of these things with obama!, so according to you folks I'm not a true demacrat, whatever, well maybe I'm not then,(I didn't relize you had to be a sheep to be a true demacrat),what I am, is an american, first and formost!,with the right to vote for who I beleive in(it isn't obama!) so I'll be changing to an independent this week, to help millions of others keep your "messiah" out of the WH.