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On the Need to Win Ohio
Jun 16th 2008 10:01PM
Filed Under:eBarack Obama, Featured Stories, 2008 President, Electoral College
Obama's captain says he doesn't need Ohio (tip to Weapons of Mass Discussion) to put together an electoral victory. Is this just hot air or is it for real?
The presumed Democratic nominee's electoral math counts on holding onto the states Kerry won, among them Michigan (17 electoral votes), where Obama campaigns on Monday and Tuesday. Plouffe said most of the Kerry states should be reliable for Obama, but three currently look relatively competitive with Republican rival John McCain - Pennsylvania, Michigan and particularly New Hampshire.
Asked about his remarks, Plouffe said Ohio and Florida start out very competitive - but he stressed that they are not tougher than other swing states and said Obama will play "extremely hard" for both. But he said the strategy is not reliant on one or two states.
It's possible, but not smart strategy to ignore Ohio. The issue is that Ohio is just such a middle of the road tipping point state, that it's hard to imagine McCain losing Virginia, but winning Ohio. It just usually doesn't work that way.
Now that is unless Barack can shift the way things are usually done, and apparently they believe that there were a lot of unregistered minority voters who skipped out on 2000 and 2004 and are available to be picked up for Obama. I sincerely doubt this, having lived through 2004, I know in Ohio that in many minority communities voter participation was the highest it ever was.
Here is some relevant data from a study:
[Table 2] Changes in the black share of the vote between
2000 and 2004 varied considerably in individual
states. Nine states witnessed large increases. In the Carolinas--
the home territory of Democratic vice-presidential
nominee John Edwards-it rose from 19 to 26 percent (in
North Carolina) and from 22 to 30 percent (in South Carolina).
The black share also rose substantially in the three
top battleground states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.
Higher black turnout contributed to John Kerry's narrow
victories in Pennsylvania, where the black share of the
statewide vote rose from 7 percent (in 2000) to 13 percent
(in 2004), and in Michigan, where the black share rose
from 11 to 13 percent. In Ohio, which Kerry lost in a close
contest, the black share increased more modestly, from 9
percent to 10 percent. Black turnout was also up solidly in
Arkansas, Virginia, New York, and Maryland.
So Kerry and his team had already done a lot to get the minority vote to the polls. Is there that much more that could be squeezed for Obama? I sincerely doubt it. No I think Ohio will still come back to be one of the major battlegrounds, it's not only smack in the middle geographically and demographically, it also borders two other states, MI and PA, that are likely to be battleground states as well. So I expect I will still have a front row seat.
Recent Comments
(Page 1 of 3)bonbon11:42PMJun 16th 2008
to June
I have something better to tell Howard the Coward Dean.
dear ex DNC chairperson, just wanted to send my condolesences, now that Obama has taken presumptive control of the party, and your job no longer exist, what with his moving it closer to the presumptive new dictators mansion, and having every intention to close Washington DC, and giving it to Farrakhan as a token of his everlasting esteem. seems you are no longer needed, and when Obama doesn't need anyone anymore, well you know where to go, yep under that bus.
gee how did this all happen, you being white, and kissing Obama's ass as you did. how could he poop on you.
well it is not like you were not warned. but would you listen. nope, you thought it would neve happen to you.
and gee just cannot feel sorry for you.
Crystal11:45PMJun 16th 2008
I'd be willing to bet when it comes to PA, Gov. Rendell will not vote for Obama. When he is on any of the news shows, you can tell his heart really isn't into this Obama thing.
June12:03AMJun 17th 2008
Nope I am me and I am not into moving on until the job is done!
The job is to keep Obambi out of our White House!
I will write ,call ,cry, scream and most of all VOTE to get the job done.
My most helpful co-worker will be the man himself! He will self destruct ! Wait and see!
chas12:33AMJun 17th 2008
The presidential primary season is finally over, and it is now time for gun owners to take a careful look at just where apparent nominee Barack Obama stands on issues related to the Second Amendment. During the primaries, Obama tried to hide behind vague statements of support for “sportsmen” or unfounded claims of general support for the right to keep and bear arms.
But his real record, based on votes taken, political associations, and long standing positions, shows that Barack Obama is a serious threat to Second Amendment liberties. Don’t listen to his campaign rhetoric! Look instead to what he has said and done during his entire political career.
FACT: Barack Obama voted to ban almost all rifle ammunition commonly used for hunting and sport shooting.3
FACT: Barack Obama has endorsed a complete ban on handgun ownership.2
FACT: Barack Obama supports local gun bans in Chicago, Washington, D.C., and other cities.4
FACT: Barack Obama voted to uphold local gun bans and the criminal prosecution of people who use firearms in self-defense.5
FACT: Barack Obama opposes Right to Carry laws.7
FACT: Barack Obama voted not to notify gun owners when the state of Illinois did records searches on them.10
chas12:37AMJun 17th 2008
Do you really know what Barack Hussein Obama stands for? Watch this video to find out the truth about Obama!!!
http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/video.aspx?RsrcID=2036
If this don't scare the heck out of you and open your eyes I don't know what will!!!
OhReally1:39AMJun 17th 2008
Ohio? Tell Obama to get back on his bus and go home, you don't need him and he doesn't need you. He can win one state all by himself.
Never forget who didn't want your vote to count. Obama and Howard Dean...too bad he isn't running for office so we could kick his behind out of the way as well.
Salvador2:17AMJun 17th 2008
Obama best watch out for tejas,califas,New Mexico PA.FL.,AZ.,and in the end even the name that Gortez name CO.thers more hispanic's in this country than ther is blacks. Remember we are the natives'
June2:44AMJun 17th 2008
Yep I saw on a news program two interesting facts
1. He does not need Ohio or Florida but he does need Michigan---thats where Gore endorsed to make a big whoopie doo!
2. Scientist have now said they find evidence of global warming on many uninhabited planets, so what we are doing is not the cause after all mr nobel peace prize!
bird dog2:48AMJun 17th 2008
TeamObama's plan is to form a NEW coalition made up of the yuppie academia crowd, blacks, and the youth vote. The rest of the Democratic party i.e. the OLD traditional base is expected to either shut up & go along or be thrown under the bus with all the others already stamped "DISCARDED"...
Will America finally start a VIABLE 3RD PARTY now -- made up of moderates on both sides of the aisle and independents who definitely don't want our country being run by either the hard right fanatical neo-cons nor the extreme left radical loonies?? It appears that with Senator Obama, we would be perilously careening from one extreme to the other. Wasn't the past 8yrs of one clueless wonder (promising unity) enough. Talk is cheap, we want results and not more empty promises... A NEW POPULAR PARTY 2012
Bettybb2:54AMJun 17th 2008
Salvador2:17AMJun 17th 2008
Obama best watch out for tejas,califas,New Mexico PA.FL.,AZ.,and in the end even the name that Gortez name CO.thers more hispanic's in this country than ther is blacks. Remember we are the natives'
.........
No you are not the natives. You are Hispanic, a mix of european and native mexicans and blacks. The only natives left are American Indians, Inuit and the native people in Mexico that the Mexicans are trying to kill off.
But you are right about Obama. If he supports Black interests that means he has to go against Hispanic interests, and visa versa. I would bet he will promise the moon to the Hispanics then stab them in the back and go with the Blacks.
Bettybb3:02AMJun 17th 2008
Yes we need a third party. Ex Sen Hagel has been talking about one. Hilliary should team up with him. There will be quite a few gop ex congressman and ex senators who could sign up and run. The Neo Cons clean house about 6 months ago. All those gop congressmen and senators who voted against Bush on any issue got to "resign".. ie the party would not support them in the election.
It looks like Obama, Dean, the DNC, and Dem Party are starting to use the same thug tacits on the elected superdelegates. The conservative Dems who were elected for the first time in 2006 should be ripe for switiching to a new party.
Obama has Blacks, the yuppies, and youth. But don't forget 1/2 of youth is female, and word will get out that Obama and crew are sexist pigs, so their vote is not guaranteed. I know my daughter was surprised to hear about Obama's sexist antics, and you can be sure she will pass it on in the sisterhood. Obama will try and get the Hispanic vote...by lying to them. But it will not be enough to win.
Just wait until all the soccer moms hear about Obama being for amnesty, illegal immigration, and using our taxes to pay for people here illegally to go to college. They know the schools are screwed up because of the illegal alien problem.. and are very ticked off.
notdumb3:16AMJun 17th 2008
Obama is going to need all the votes that he can get after word of this gets out. If it ever does. He is going to need Ohio, PA, California, Fl, Michigan...all fo them for that fact.
George Soros is behind all of this. He wants to take over the DNC .He owns Howard Dean and Obama's latest addition to his staff is just one of his many puppets.As are the Obama advisors. Get the Latino vote! Get Obama in and George Soros will control America. And, George Soros is right behind the failing of the Clinton campaign. Howard Dean has access to George Soros's millions. Soros is Obama's biggest campaign contributor. There is not one honest person on the Obama staff. We have not seen Hillary, Bill or Chelsea because they have received death threats. And she may not be invited to speak at the convention.
I happened across this article. I think EVERYONE should read it. To vote for Obama would spell DISASTER for America.
http://www.propeller.com/viewstory/2008/06/16/soross-new-hostile-takeover-the-democratic-party/...
laura m4:10AMJun 17th 2008
each party plays this electoral math game. and it was a spokeman for obama who actually said that. democrats should not give up on ohio, as it has suffered from so much loss of manufacturing jobs. outsourcing may be cheap for corporations, but bad for workers.
JOHN6:48AMJun 17th 2008
>>>THIS #3 ARTICLE OF THE 14TH AMENDMENT COULD BE USED AGAINST OBAMA FOR HIS LINKS TO WRIGHT, REZKO, AYRES, FARAKAN ETC WHICH WOULD DISQUALIFY HIM FROM THIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE!!!!
Amendment 14 - Citizenship Rights
3. No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
Robert Alexander7:48AMJun 17th 2008
Barack has never said he does not need any voter. Barack has opened up the process to contest votes in all of the states, not just so called Blue States. It is high time we got rid of the Electoral College so all votes counted the same. If they had, Al Gore would have been President and this nation would not be in the Bush mess. Barack Obama, the candidate supported by millions of small contributors!
suzanne8:49AMJun 17th 2008
WOW Obama doesn't need Ohio????
REALLY???
Well after I saw the ads that are running in Michigan I don't think Obama should count Michigan as "HIS" voters just yet!! Another cheesy ploy with Al Gore was just that a ploy... another promise in the sand. After the election I am sure Al Gore will give him some much needed pointers on Obamas "NEW" book about how he lost the election.
The Michigan & Ohio people are too smart they will see right thru this man who built his campaign on insults to small town people.
The NRA has been campaigning on line against his policy on gun ownership and how Obama has "really" voted not what his spin doctors say he voted.
It's hard to find a household in Michigan where there are not hunters or they do not personally own a gun, I don't think the people of Michigan & Ohio are ready to give up their 2nd amendment rights, and "especially" after he made fun of these "small town folk" for using and "clinging" to their amendment rights!
Check out his voting record on gun control for yourself don't listen to the spin doctors check it out for yourself!
The Obama campaign of sand......
REPLACE-DEMS-IN-CONGRESS9:14AMJun 17th 2008
Here is some relevant data from a study:
[Table 2] Changes in the black share of the vote between 2000 and 2004 varied considerably in individual states. Nine states witnessed large increases. In the Carolinas--the home territory of Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards-it rose from 19 to 26 percent (in North Carolina) and from 22 to 30 percent (in South Carolina). The black share also rose substantially in the three top battleground states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.
Higher black turnout contributed to John Kerry's narrow victories in Pennsylvania, where the black share of the statewide vote rose from 7 percent (in 2000) to 13 percent (in 2004), and in Michigan, where the black share rose from 11 to 13 percent. In Ohio, which Kerry lost in a close contest, the black share increased more modestly, from 9 percent to 10 percent. Black turnout was also up solidly in
Arkansas, Virginia, New York, and Maryland.
HAS ANYONE CHECKED TO SEE HOW MAN "DEAD" PEOPLE VOTED? THIS IS A REAL PROBLEM. CERTIFIED PHOTO ID'S MUST BE USED BY VOTERS IN THE FUTURE.
RURAL-HARDWORKING-BLUE COLLAR9:24AMJun 17th 2008
Here is some relevant data from a study:
[Table 2] Changes in the black share of the vote between 2000 and 2004 varied considerably in individual states. Nine states witnessed large increases. In the Carolinas--the home territory of Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards-it rose from 19 to 26 percent (in North Carolina) and from 22 to 30 percent (in South Carolina). The black share also rose substantially in the three top battleground states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.
Higher black turnout contributed to John Kerry's narrow victories in Pennsylvania, where the black share of the statewide vote rose from 7 percent (in 2000) to 13 percent (in 2004), and in Michigan, where the black share rose from 11 to 13 percent. In Ohio, which Kerry lost in a close contest, the black share increased more modestly, from 9 percent to 10 percent. Black turnout was also up solidly in
Arkansas, Virginia, New York, and Maryland.
HAS ANYONE CHECKED TO SEE HOW MAN "DEAD" PEOPLE VOTED? THIS IS A REAL PROBLEM. CERTIFIED PHOTO ID'S MUST BE USED BY VOTERS IN THE FUTURE.
VOTE JOHN McCAIN IN 2008.
Dee9:57AMJun 17th 2008
Think about it...
The OPEC minister may look you in the eye and say,
"We are at war with you infidels and have been since
the embargo in the 1970s. You are so arrogant you
haven't even recognized it. You have more missiles,
bombs, and technology; so we are fighting with the
best weapon we have and extracting on a net basis
about $700 billion/year out of your economy. We will
destroy you! Death to the infidels!
While I am here I would like to thank you for the
following: Not developing your 250-300 year supply of oil
shale and tar sands. we know if you did this, it
would create thousands of jobs for U.S. citizens,
expand your engineering capabilities, and keep the
wealth in the U.S. instead of sending it to us to
finance our war against you infidels.
Thanks for limiting defense dept. purchases of
oil sands from your neighbors to the north. We love
it when you confuse your allies.
Thanks for over regulating every segment of your
economy and thus delaying, by decades, the
development of alternate fuel technologies.
Thanks for limiting drilling off your coasts, in
Alaska, and anywhere there is an insect, bird, fish, or
plant that might be inconvenienced. Better that your
people suffer. Glad to see our lobbying efforts have
been so effective.
Corn based Ethanol. Praise Allah for this sham
program! Perhaps you will destroy yourself from the
inside with theses types of policies. This is a gift
from Allah, praise his name! We never would have
thought of this one! This is better than when you
pay your farmers NOT TO GROW FOOD. Have them use
more energy to create less energy, and
simultaneously drive up food prices.
Thank you U.S. Congress!
And finally, we appreciate you letting us fleece
you without end. You will be glad to know we have
been accumulating shares in your banks, real estate,
and publicly held companies. We also finance a good
portion of your debt and now manipulate your
markets, currency, and economies for our benefit.
THANK YOU AMERICA !"
You stupid fools!
Praise Allah
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bonbon11:32PMJun 16th 2008
hear that Ohio, Obama says he does not need you.
imagine that. but then he thinks he is so entitled to be dictator, without the ususal priorities. so should this come as any real surprise.
hmm, where have I heard this all before.
oh yeah, when he thought it was ok, to insult the small town mentality, aimed at Pennsylvania, but meant to reflect this entire nation.
when will people begin to realize, Obama thinks we are all redundant, and are only means to an end.
and unless he needs you, he could care less about you.
so Ohio, may I introduce you to the present inhabitants living under the Obama bus, seems you now have joined them, sorry it is a little crowded, and please take your places at the back of the bus.
Obama will call when and only when you become necessary.