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GOP Retirements Dim Chances of House Takeover
Rick Moran is glum about GOP chances to flip the house back.
But then came the scramble for the exits among House Republicans and that vision proved to be nothing but a mirage. Like a bunch of theatergoers leaving at the end of the second act of a really bad show, a parade of GOP Congressmen appeared before the cameras, and one by one over the ensuing months announced their retirement. The list grew to include 22 members - many of them long-serving Congressmen who found themselves facing a well funded, and enthusiastic Democratic challenger for the first time in many years.
...
The math is frightening. With 28 seats up for grabs in 2008 on top of the 18 seat majority currently held by Democrats, there is a very good chance that Democrats, for all practical purposes, could win enough seats this year that the GOP would be a minority party for the next decade - and perhaps beyond. When 98% of incumbents in the House are victorious and redistricting looms in 2012, the chances of Republicans overcoming a 40 or 50-seat Democratic majority in the next couple of election cycles are slim.
This is correct, but it shouldn't have surprised anyway. The only thing that bothers me about this post is the lack of a sense of history even 12 years ago. The same thing happened post 1994 when it was the GOP in the catbird seat. There were many Democrats that retired, and a few that became Republicans (Ben Nighthorse Campbell was one of the higher profile examples). Which of course sank the Democrat chances of retaking the house for what turned out to be 12 years in the wilderness.
Many of the GOP retirees, among them Deb Pryce in Ohio, stuck out longer than they planned to as a favor to the party to keep control. Once control was no longer an issue what was the point. The GOP will not get control back this cycle, but this wave of retirements is overall a good thing for the GOP (and any political party). Fresh blood, new ideas, new faces will ultimately lead to less time in the wilderness.
Recent Comments
(Page 1 of 1)David S.10:58PMJun 27th 2008
Oh, well, so much for Karl Rove's arrogant boasting of building a "permanent Republican majority."
Mary Brown12:10AMJun 28th 2008
Let's see what you are willing to do defeat Obama. Elect John McCain? How many more tours in Iraq would my young relative serve? How many children will go without health care? How many adults? You are asking the most vulnerable people in this country to tolerate 4 more years of abuse. Senator Clinton knows this and is unwilling to participate. How much money will be spent drilling for oil that enriches only George Bush's buddies? Do you really believe that McCain will develop alternate power sources like Solar and wind? He wants to subsidize nuclear and oil but not renewalble non polluting resourses. Are you aware of the Supreme Court? Would you prefer 6 ultra conservative justices? You people would put us all at jeopordy because you are angry. I am an Obama supporter but had the outcome been different I would be putting on my Hillary button right now. Shame on you.
suprem100612:14AMJun 28th 2008
Guess what no obama you fell for the bs being shoveled down your throat by George W Bush and now you hate a man because his mom gave him his fathers name. So now you dont know amybody in the kkk. Yep that is a terriost group. Do you speak out when they march and spread hate. Or how bout the rebel flag. Can you imagine a young white, Black Asian, Indian having to work with an indivdual that puts the rebel flag on their car but no U.S. flag? I will vote for Obama and take as many people as possible to the polls because we cannot afford ANOTHER 4 YEARS OF COPASSIONATE CONSERVATISM. And yes he has son serving. But are they on the front lines? Have they been getting shot at. Have they fired a bullet.
Ethier way I respct them but they give out combat pathes just being over their in SW Asia. Trust me it is a difference. And the fact that Mccain walked down the street dont mean we will be vacationing their anytime soon. How many soldiers lives did he put in jeaperdy so he could sell this bs war.? To many. No more conservatives. The world cant afford them. And if you watch fasle news; You are brainwashed.LOL
Eakarach5:39AMJun 28th 2008
I THINK ALL 18 MILLION OF HILLARY SUPPORTER SHOULD VOTE FOR ALL REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE IN THE FALL. WE MUST MAKE THEM PAY FOR WHAT THEY DID TO HILLARY IN PRIMARY.
MCCAIN 08!
HILLARY 12!
Marty9:36AMJun 28th 2008
The "R's" have allowed and enabled "W" to demolish our economy by dumping billions into Haliburton's and Cheney's coffers as well as destroying our country's credibility throughout the world.
Thank God they are leaving
robert Johnston10:16AMJun 28th 2008
People are so quick to name call and think the worst of people. If you voted for Hillary, and now are voting for McCain, then your vote was not for issues but rather for a person. If it were for issues that you actually cared about, then you would have to vote for Obama. The justices in the Supreme Court would be much different if McCain were elected instead of Obama. Think about that before you vote.
Dennis11:00AMJun 28th 2008
Where has all of John McCains money come from? Off of alcohol sales? Blood money? How many people were killed by drunk drivers to get him elected?
Two can play at that game nobama. baseless accusations.
Beevo1:53PMJun 28th 2008
Now hear this: HILLARY LOST You are not a good supporter of this woman, if you dump her and fail to follow her in supporting Obama!! I wanted Richardson, but he lost. So I moved to Edwards, but he also lost...would I vote for McCain? Of course not!! I will support Obama because he stands for the policies I believe in. He clearly is a leader,or he'd not have won this nomination. I think Hillary tried to ride in on Bill's coat tails. Most of us did not want to see Bill back in the White House; but I'd have probably voted for her if she had won the nomination. I'll admit I considered not voting at all. Thankfully it did not come down to that! So I hope by November you people will get over your snit!!
I'm hoping I will yet have the chance to vote for Richardson for veep.
laura m10:18PMJun 28th 2008
there may not be a republican majority, but democrats are more ideologically diverse than the current crop of republicans. McCain may become president, and had more or less promised the religious right their choice of judicial picks. or did someone miss that "strict constructionist" reference when he met with social conservatives? it would be better to have
a supreme court that reflects some of the centrist values of Sandra Day O'Connor. we are more or less a 50/50 nation. it is dismaying to think of having more
scalias, allitos, thomas's. we need at least one centrist judge when the liberals retire.
JulieE2:04AMJun 29th 2008
A Democratic House or Representatives will be a good balance for a McCain presidency. If we were stuck with Obama and had a Democratic House, he wouldn't be held in check.
Splash3:02PMJun 29th 2008
Does it really matter?
Send a Thank you to Hillary3:07PMJun 29th 2008
Got an email from Terry L., one of Clinton's supporters, about this campaign. I hope everyone gets involved. Let's blanket her Senate office with 18 million cards! No one deserves it more.
Terry has a specific message:
We are trying to get a "Thank you card campaign" started. We want to flood Senator Clinton's DC office with thank you cards. On the front of the envelope we are writing "WE ARE ONE OF 18 MILLION" and we are asking her to take it to Denver. We want to reach as many supporters as possible so it can be effective. THE ADDRESS:
THE HONORABLE HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON
UNITED STATES SENATE
476 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING
WASHINGTON DC 20510-3202
But a thank you card for all she's done works too.
Hillary fought for us. So let's send a card to Senator Clinton. Then tell your friends to send one. Then get them to get their friends to send one.
Pass it on.
Make your vote count11:48PMJun 29th 2008
Make your vote count9:59PMJun 29th 2008
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/pledge-to-vote-against-obama-in-the-general-election
Pledge to vote against Obama in the General Election
RLaitres5:21PMJul 1st 2008
Eakarach5:39AMJun 28th 2008
I THINK ALL 18 MILLION OF HILLARY SUPPORTER SHOULD VOTE FOR ALL REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE IN THE FALL. WE MUST MAKE THEM PAY FOR WHAT THEY DID TO HILLARY IN PRIMARY.
MCCAIN 08!
HILLARY 12!
====================================================
Kindly "Get a grip." It is obvious that the psoter is a Republican "apparatchik." At least it appears that way. No responsible Democrat, one who cares more for the country and its future than a persoality, would eve make a post.
The post reads like it came from a member of the "Operation Chaos" squad, who has consumed far too much "Limbaugh lard" to have any credibility.
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David S.10:54PMJun 27th 2008
Well, so much for Karl Rove's "permanent Republican majority."