Not only is the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan (remember Afghanistan?) flourishing after almost seven years of U.S.-led fighting there, but insurgents probably will accelerate their attacks and expand into new regions of the country pretty soon.

That's the cheery news from the Defense Department report released late last week.

You can read the report here. The American Forces Press Services puts an unsurprisingly more optimistic spin on it. Here's a quick overview of what the "Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan" for Congress found:

-The Afghanistan National Police (ANP) are improving, although at a slower pace than the Afghan National Army (ANA). It's hampered by lack of reform, corruption, insufficient U.S. military trainers and advisers, "and lack of unity of effort within the international community."

-"The Taliban regrouped after its fall from power and have coalesced into a resilient insurgency. It now poses a challenge to the Afghan Government's authority in some rural areas."

-Asymmetric attacks increased in 2007 as international forces' pressure forced the insurgents to shift their focus to targeting police and civilians; more than 6,500 people died as a result of suicide attacks, roadside bombs, and combat-related violence.

-Despite military campaigns against them, and loss of some leadership and safe-havens, "the Taliban is likely to maintain or even increase the scope and pace of its terrorist attacks and bombings in 2008"

-The Taliban will challenge the control of the Afghan government in rural areas, especially in the south and east. The Taliban will also probably attempt ti increase its presence in the west and north. up to the first quarter of 2008, the most significant threat to stability in the north and west of the country has come from warlords, criminals, and drug traffickers. The power of these entities is increasingly challenged by the growing competence of local and national government.

-Narcotics - opium production, specifically - remain a "significant challenge" for both Afghanistan and the international community; "overall counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan have not been successful." Not only is opium trafficking threatening society and not encouraging Afghans to get legal jobs, the trade provides funding for insurgents and contributes heavily to heroin addiction in Central Asia, Europe and increasingly Africa. "Although counternarcotics efforts have resulted in gains over the past sic years, the battle against drug traffickers is ongoing, and will be for some time."

The 2008 World Drug Report, released Thursday by the U.N., says opium poppy cultivation in the country grew 17% in 2007, which increased its share of global opium production to more than 92%. Afghanistan has emerged as the world's largest supplier of opium and heroin. A U.N. official told The Washington Post that the Taliban earned $200 million-$400 million last year through a 10% tax on poppy growers and drug traffickers in areas under its control, and estimated that poppy farmers and drug traffickers last year earned about $4 billion, half of the country's national income.


-Afghanistan's human rights record is still abysmal; most violations are perpetuated by the Taliban-led insurgency, but security forces are responsible for some, as well. Increased oversight of police monitors has helped some.

-Official revenues only account for 20% of the country's recurrent costs; it's still heavily dependent on foreign aid and fuel and food costs are rising

The reports comes on the heels of less-than-rosy assessments by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and others, about the major problems inhibiting progress in Afghanistan. Gates has been highly critical of Europe for not sending more troops to help train local police and other personnel.

Meanwhile, the U.N. relief chief said yesterday said the humanitarian situation inside Afghanistan is getting worse, with civilian casualties rising and food prices soaring. John Holmes said "a very understandable focus" in recent years on making progress on the political, security, development and reconstruction fronts has led to such needs being neglected. Deteriorating security situation in many parts of the country is largely to blame, with aid workers unable to reach some areas because of the fighting and some direct attacks on aid convoys.

"We need to have more capacity on the ground to deal with these humanitarian needs and we need to mobilize more resources from the international community," he told reporters in Kabul Sunday.

The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan says there have been 698 civilian casualties so far this year, compared to 430 for the same period in 2007. Nearly two-thirds of this year's killings have been the result of insurgents and other anti-government groups, with the rest attributable to either the military or international forces.