Search
About This Blog
Resources
Blog Roll
- Captain's Quarters
- Cliff Schecter
- CNN's Political Ticker
- Conservative Grapevine
- Crooks & Liars
- Daily Kos
- Drudge
- FactCheck.org
- Huffington Post
- Instapundit
- Little Green Footballs
- News Bloggers
- Political-Buzz
- Power Line
- RedState
- Slate - Trailhead
- Swampland
- Talking Points Memo
- The Daily Dish
- The Plank
- The Young Turks
- Wonkette
McCain Must Target Michigan and Ohio
I love me a little election strategery, and Patrick Ruffini has a lot of it here. In particular what he finds is a very compelling argument that McCain could push Ohio and Michigan together as one superstate and winning both of them makes it very, very difficult for Obama to make up elsewhere.
This suggests a McCain firewall in Virginia and Colorado, and to a lesser extent Florida, but that won't win it. Rather, the key to victory may lie in targeting Ohio-Michigan as a megastate and trying to shift both states 1-2 points in his direction by brute force. If he does this to tune of just 1%, and nothing else changes, the electoral vote is McCain 291, Obama 247 under a tied popular vote.
The intense targeting behind Florida (2000) and Ohio (2004) shows that it's possible to generate one-state swings that pull "ground zero" states towards the national median. The trick this time will be to spin the Buckeye-Wolverine axis as the new Florida/Ohio, because McCain needs both. This also means we can expect to see lots of Dearborn-to-Toledo bus tours for the Straight Talk Express.
And McCain is already acting like he believes it, visiting the heavily blue and unionized parts of the Buckeye state. Ohio and Michigan together count for 37 electoral votes, or bigger than Texas, Florida, and more than half of California. McCain has always done well in Michigan, in primaries at least, and of all the blue states, Michigan is polling the best for a flip. And of course, I personally like the idea of offense, not defense, Obama really cannot afford to ignore a significant push here.
Both states have battered economies and high unemployment relative to the rest of the nation, and a good campaign plan for economic issues will be crucial. But if gas prices and heating oil continue to rise over the next few months, I'm going to give the edge to John McCain on this front, as he definitely has the more credible policy for reducing energy costs.
Either way, as an Ohio resident, I think I will again have a front row seat this cycle.
Recent Comments
(Page 1 of 1)USAPROUD3:48AMJul 1st 2008
As a Hillary Supporter for John McCain I hope that the people of Ohio will back JOHN MCCAIN. Millions of us Democrats are now backing John McCain because we feel he is the best qualified candidate to be President. Barack Obama is for raising taxes, down sizing our military, giving health care to millions of illegal immigrants, and has fliped-floped on so many issues you don't know what he really stands for. I hope you all will read up on his economic policies, as his give..give..give..will bankrupt America. John McCain is not a 3rd term Bush. He is his own man. He has the experience needed for the job. Obama says he did so much good in Chicago, that is not what I have been reading. Search on the internet and you will see.
Visit our website and learn why so many Democrats have left the Democratic Party and now are voting for John McCaon, and many of us will be voting a straight Republican ticket. The DNC and the Democratic party are not the party they use to be. Check us out and see what we mean..you will see FACTS, not smears. Our websites are...www.nobamanetwork.com..www.noquarterusa.net...www.hcsfjm.com....BE INFORMED BEFORE YOU VOTE......WE ARE PUTTING.....COUNTRY FIRST NOT PARTY
Pete4:39AMJul 1st 2008
You're certainly right about McCain's having the only _credible_ energy policy! In fact, it's impossible to know what Obama's true energy policy involves because of the inconsistencies in what he says and does and in differing statements made on different occasions. For example, after stating that he is opposed to giving tax breaks to corporations like the oil companies, he then voted for the Bush/Cheney energy bill which gave $27 billion in subsidies to the oil companies. This is just one example of Obama's inconsistency in regard to energy policy. McCain, on the other hand, voted against the Bush/Cheney energy bill and has demonstrated consistency in his statements regarding energy. McCain's consistency and Obama's inconsistency reasons that this lifelong Democrat will be voting Republican in November.
Pete4:57AMJul 1st 2008
Ross, I'm here to tell you that there are indeed millions of Hillary Clinton supporters, like me, who definitely will be voting Republican for the first time in November. We're real and we're out here, wishing we could vote for Hillary but finding Obama and impossible replacement. How do I know this? I spent every spare moment campaigning for Clinton and have talked to thousands of people from every part of the country. A constantly recurring theme in those conversations was fear of what Obama really is and the decision to vote Republican for McCain if Obama was the choice of the DNC, as he inevitably was. From Obama's books and recent activities or statements, we know that he has belonged for 22 years to an anti-American church; that he has long held racist attitudes toward whites; and that by his own admission in his books, he dealt with the frustration and hostility of racial prejudice by abusing marijuana, cocaine, and alcohol. Therefore, Obama can be described as a racist anti-American with a history of drug and alcohol abuse. Considering his recent inconsistencies, I would add to his description that he "flip-flops" in changing his beliefs to expediently suit the situation. For these reasons the public does not know the "real" Obama, and many are very frightened of the possible essence of the real Obama. For more information on this, go to the Web site
exposeobama.com
Patricia5:04AMJul 1st 2008
July 1, 2008
Go! McCain for President!! he is the right fit for "Commander in Chief" for the military among everything else. Wake Up America! McCain is the right choice to be President of the United States. NOT OBAMA! that's for sure, please don't make this mistake when voting, he is the wrong choice!! Everyone needs to think about the WAR IN IRAQ that's going on right now along with all of the soldiers that had died for our country not just the economy issues like Obama...etc. McCain is the right man to be chosen as the President for our country so think about it twice before voting and support McCain! on his campaign for Presidency...
michael white5:58AMJul 1st 2008
Polls show Obama up in both of these states, and the gap is widening. The war and the resulting deficit is a big reason why our economy is in the tank, and why the dollar is no longer worth the paper it's printed on. The GOP brought us to this sorry state, where basically if you're not a war profiteer or an oil baron you're worse off than you used to be, and the electorate is now turning its back on the GOP. This only makes sense. This election isn't going to hinge on one or two battleground states . . . it ain't gonna be close.
JOHN6:46AMJul 1st 2008
Someone ask the president wannabe if he will take his presidential oath on the bible. I think we all know the answer to that - there will be no answer.
Someone ask the junior senator what 57 states he is referring to in his campaign. The only 57 state group is the 57 Islamic states - you know - the "peaceful religion"
Someone ask the inexperienced new boy what he thinks of an institution that would overlook the more experienced female candidate for the new fellow with the charisma, the new suit, the new jokes and the good ole boy democrat mentality of screwing the more qualified female candidate for the job so the new guy can take his step up the ladder.
Now for the enlightened liberals to take their turn to call me racist for pointing out the " inconvenient truth" The junior senator has lost his bearings
Dee7:04AMJul 1st 2008
Oops. Move over Rev. Wright (under that bus in Chicago) and make room for another "discard." You've got a General joining you now...with the same ailment. It's called the "Foot In Mouth" disease.
Parody & Son7:32AMJul 1st 2008
Check out the new John McCain parody “Hot Headed” on Parody & Son at:
http://parodyandson.blogspot.com
or on YouTube at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_Dhxu-6l98
Vinny8:31AMJul 1st 2008
Dave good article, McCain does have an edge in a blue collar state and that is because John is a moderate that will not change a working machine,but he will maintain and add another and keep them running.
Obama is a socialist that is a Marxist fan who wants world Government. Obama doesn't care for the Unions or the white collar worker.He wants change at the expense of our Capitalist system.
Obama would rather raise taxes for socialist programs and anyone from the Carter years knows the working man,the Union man suffered with Carters tax increases.Our pay checks were gutted like a small bony fish.
tfitz10179:00AMJul 1st 2008
What energy policy? What he has proposed, $300 mil for a battery and off-shore drilling is not an energy policy.
The fact is that neither candidate is going to be able to effect the price of gas much. Anything they say to the contrary should be eyed suspiciously.
MichiganGuy00510:21AMJul 1st 2008
I live in Michigan, and I voted for Hillary in the primary. Yeah, I know, what primary, lol. I wish the DNC had told me that they were rigging the primary so that half the votes were actually going to Obama. Say what they want, Hillary showed up twice here to campaign, Obama didn't show up once, didn't even say hi to us via tv, the internet, anything, nothing. And yet he gets my vote, whom I didn't even vote for. And the DNC led by Howard "The Loon" Dean just figured screw you Jeff, get out of my way you little nothing. Now John McCain gets my vote in November, for two reasons. One, and the most important reason, pure revenge. And the second, but on equal footing as the first, I can't stand Obama! The guy is nothing more than a snake-oil salesman, with nothing but water in the bottles he's selling. And, since I live in Michigan, I might as well say this. All you liberals out there who think "change" is good, let's trash the government and start over, everyone's a winner, let's rob the rich and give to the crackheads, come to Detroit, live there for four months (a city I evacuated almost five years ago), see what a government that changed everything in the early 70's, looks like thirty years later. Wear a flack jacket and a helmet, you're gonna need'em.
Tommy Christopher10:43AMJul 1st 2008
Dave,
I think this is a little bit like the 1962 Mets practicing a new double-steal drill.
REPLACE-DEMS-IN-CONGRESS11:04AMJul 1st 2008
Had the DNC and biased media told the truth about Obama BEFORE half of America had voted — he would not be a candidate — Hillary would be.
When Clark was running for President he was using his military experience as a reason that he would make a good president — ‘typical’ political hypocrite.
At one point I had some respect for former Gen. Clark. I no longer have any respect for him. His comment is disgusting. John McCain has more character in his little finger than former Gen. Clark or Obama have combined.
This latest stupid comment by an Obama surrogate highlights another reason why the media poster boy, Obama, is not the one to lead our country.
Clark says we should not vote for McCain, JUST BECAUSE he was a prisoner of war — I say we should not vote for Barack Hussein Obama JUST BECAUSE he is black. Obama has no experience in ‘anything’. His entire campaign has been based on lies.
It’s getting very crowded under the Obama bus. If he keeps going this way, he’ll have to get some more buses.
Let’s see the Obama list of un-Americans that support him is growing….We can now add Clark to the List of Ayers, Wright, Pfleger, Farrakhan, Hamas, Soros, Hezbollah on and on . . .
Vote for John McCain in 2008!
R. Ross12:03PMJul 1st 2008
USAproud, or similar: you are obviously a Republican, and not a Hillary supporter [for McCain]. You are either rather old or young, as your writing betrays a certain simplistic robotic view.
You say you were for Hillary, for ending the war fairly soon, for reforming health care, etc., and then you say not just vote for McBush but the entire GOP ticket? What a joke, you are so comical, like a rabid foaming-at-the-mouth Young Republican or old timer who still believes in Hoover [for 1932].
See the Real McCain on youtube.com, you'll see just a part of why he's a phoney and not a Saint like some of the media, like Fox, want you to think. He was a key player in starting this unnecessary war which has nearly destroyed the economy [and remember, he says he "knows little about money." yet he is running not just for small town mayor but President???]
Help defeat the Neo-Con's Before they start yet another war, go to moveon.org
R. Ross3:08AMJul 2nd 2008
michiganguy005:
little boy, didn't you notice that 48 states played by the rules, and those that didn't, for good or bad reasons, were naturally punished [very little really]. Sen. Obama, Edwards, etc. didn't campaign in Mich., because as Hillary is quoted, "it will not count."
SO go back to your Republican security blanket and pretend McCain-Bush didn't start a completely unnecessary war that will virtually bankrupt the US.
If a Democrat had done that I know you and FOX would be screaming for impeachment or trial for treason.
Latest Elections News Headlines
Latest Politics Headlines
Most Commented On Posts
Most Recent Comments
Politics Video
Will.I.Am on Obama's Internet EmpireWill.I.Am ponders on how Obama and the internet have changed politics forever. (Oct. 3) | |
Mo Rocca 180: Dolly vs. AbeDolly Parton or Abe Lincoln? You must choose! | |
Reid: Presidential Politics Harming Bailout PlanSenate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Friday that the time has come for presidential politics to leave the negotiating table as lawmakers work to reach an agreement on a financial bailout plan. (Sept. 26) | |
Dems Blame McCain for Bailout Deal BreakdownSen. John McCain's self-portrait as a bold leader willing to set politics aside to save an endangered financial bailout plan took a pounding Thursday from top Democrats and even some fellow Republicans. (Sept. 25) | |
Street Team '08: Pigskin PoliticsA football game is the last place you'd expect to find political proselytizing, but this year Democrats are ready to make a hail mary pass in Idaho. Produced by Brian Rich of Idaho for MTV's Choose or Lose Streat Team '08 at chooseorlose.com. (Sept. 25) | |
| « See More Politics Video | |
Declare Yourself is a campaign that encourages young Americans to register and vote.
REGISTER TO VOTE NOW AT:www.declareyourself.org
Sally1:51AMJul 1st 2008
Dave, please tell me that you're not letting down this former Ohio resident & all-time Buckeye fanatic by being a McCain supporter?! Please, please say it ain't so!!! Signed, Ohio Dem's 4 Life that now call Fla. Home