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1972 or 1976
I'm struggling to find within myself a gut feeling for how this election is going to shake out. This is odd for me. I usually have a definite opinion and people who know that I am into politics are used to receiving a definite answer. My problem is that I like reading about history, especially political history, and this election is really close to either 1972 or 1976, and it could shakeout either way depending on which context matches best.
In 1972 we had a ton of energy on the Democratic side, rallying around an antiwar candidate and having a lot of fun pointing out the inadequacies and lack of charisma of one Richard Nixon. Richard Nixon may have been unlikeable, but he was very much in tune with the mood of the country. By 1972 he had removed almost all American combat troops from Vietnam, ended the draft. and it wasn't nearly the issue McGovern had hoped it would be.
The silent majority spoke loudly and said they were perfectly fine with Richard Nixon.
But in 1976 there was also a moderate Republican and a lot of energy on the Democratic side, huge economic unrest and it helped push Jimmy Carter into office over Gerald Ford.
My problem in trying to make a prediction, is that I can see either of these scenarios playing out. Is Obama a 2nd Jimmy Carter? Able to tap into a huge mainstream of America that is ready for something new? Or is Obama a George McGovern? Lots of flash and sizzle, but no meat. Many high energy supporters, but many, many more who say, meh, I'll take the old Republican guy, he seems more stable.
If the Republicans had nominated anyone else but McCain, I'd say 1972 in a heartbeat and the Democrats are in for a heartbreak (again), but McCain is uncomfortably close to Gerald Ford, and it might be 1976 again. What's your gut feeling?
Recent Comments
(Page 1 of 3)OhReally10:16PMJul 1st 2008
Obama Channels McGovern In More Ways Than One »
Recently, I wrote about how similar Obama’s supporters are to those of George McGovern–channeling the nastiest of their offensive characteristics and philosophies. In McGovern’s case, it led to one of the biggest bashings in a General Election in history, save for Mike Dukakis. But I will save Dukakis for another day.
There have been many discussions of the astounding similarities between McGovern and Obama as fringe candidates who offended the senses of the majority of America, who by and large are not as loud as The Fringe — but who instead tend to register their disdain at the polls.
OhReally10:21PMJul 1st 2008
One might have disdain for...
Obama Sets Out to Become the “Bad, Bad, Leroy Brown” of Chicago Politics
Does anyone remember the popular Jim Croche song of the 70’s titled “Bad, Bad, Leroy Brown?” It goes
something like this: “On the South Side of Chicago, it’s the meanest part of town, but if you go down there, you’d best beware of a man named Leroy Brown.”
Leroy was a man who had what’s called “street credit.” In his case, he did it by being “meaner than a junkyard dog.” Barack’s problem was that while he harbored deep psychological issues and an unhealthy race consciousness, his education, social status and mannerisms marked him as an Oreo Preppie.
This had to change if he was to fast track votes from a black population raised on blaming “the white world,” for every personal shortcoming. Through your associations, prove that you were one of them.
He is one of them thats for sure
OhReally10:31PMJul 1st 2008
I can't think of any Republican who would be better suited to get the vote of moderate and convervative Democrats who do not want..........
A Corrupt, black radical, ultra-liberal, muslim, white-hating, terrorist-loving, liar with no experience...
ANYBODY-BUT-OBAMA10:42PMJul 1st 2008
Does anyone doubt Obama’s ability to stage events after this?
I mean a speech in Independence, Missouri about “patriotism”, while a surrogate talks trash about McCain’s military service. There's something wrong when a “presidential” candidate feels they need to give a speech and EXPLAIN “PATRIOTISM”.
Obama is taking a very low road after pledging to have a campaign that doesn't sling mud. I quess this is just another flip-flop by Obama.
His "words" and speeches mean nothing to this Independent anymore.
VOTE JOHN McCAIN IN 2008.
Mrbline11:04PMJul 1st 2008
Dave,
I would have to say neither. As the primaries were winding down, I was reminded of the young Bill Clinton beating the status quo in 1992, then going on to beat Bush Sr. (with the help of Ross Perot). McCain has the similar fractures Sr. did (Barr, Paul, and the Evangelical right to name three), and Obama is bringing young, hungry, fresh blood into the Democratic party, replacing the ones Clinton built a dynasty on 16 years ago. He is also, like Clinton, angling for the Evangelicals.
72 and 76 carries an assumption that the Dems are doomed. Similar predictions were made in 92. I wouldn't write Obama off so quickly as a poor choice.
jpgoodrow11:05PMJul 1st 2008
OBAMA IS VERY CLEARLY A WOLF IN SHEEP'S CLOTHING
While he is preaching unity and change he has his surrogates running around falsely accusing the Clinton's of being racists and trashing McCain's honorbale military service to this nation.
Well Mr. Obama there is unity and change in the air all right. He has "unified" MILLION OF DEMS to "change" their votes to the GOP.
20-MILLION DEMS -4- MCCAIN '08
America Needs A President, Not A Hateful Phony Like Obama
ANYBODY-BUT-OBAMA11:06PMJul 1st 2008
Does anyone doubt Obama’s ability to stage events after this?
I mean a speech in Independence, Missouri about “patriotism”, while a surrogate talks trash about McCain’s military service. There's something wrong when a “presidential” candidate feels they need to give a speech and EXPLAIN “PATRIOTISM”.
Obama is taking a very low road after pledging to have a campaign that doesn't sling mud. I quess this is just another flip-flop by Obama.
His "words" and speeches mean nothing to this Independent anymore.
I get it, he “HOPES” you won’t notice how many times he “CHANGES” his position to suit the audience, the polls, the prevailing winds — or whatever!
This guy is the biggest fraud to come down the pike in the history of this country.
Wake up America!
VOTE FOR JOHN McCAIN IN 2008.
REPLACE-DEMS-IN-CONGRESS11:13PMJul 1st 2008
BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA WAS "SELECTED" --- NOT "ELECTED".
Does anyone doubt Obama’s ability to "stage" events after this?
I mean a speech in Independence, Missouri about “patriotism”, while a surrogate talks trash about McCain’s military service. There's something wrong when a “presidential” candidate feels they need to give a speech and EXPLAIN “PATRIOTISM”.
Obama is taking a very low road after pledging to have a campaign that doesn't sling mud. I quess this is just another flip-flop by Obama.
His "words" and speeches mean nothing to this Independent anymore.
I get it, he “HOPES” you won’t notice how many times he “CHANGES” his position to suit the audience, the polls, the prevailing winds — or whatever!
This guy is the biggest fraud to come down the pike in the history of this country.
Wake up America!
VOTE FOR JOHN McCAIN IN 2008.
speak1:16AMJul 2nd 2008
OhReally,
I'm pretty sure you would have liked to be that educated with the social status and mannerisms as Obama if you are a man, and if you are a woman, to be as beautiful and as intelligent as Obama's wife and in the limelight. That's not happening for you-too bad! I would take your words "oreo preppie" as a compliment to Obama since you used the words in the same context with Obama's education which is solid and profound, and his social status and mannerisms which are superb. Of course you did not use the words as a compliment but as a sarcasm.
OhReally, you would have liked to be that "oreo preppie" as you claim Obama has become so much, that you can taste the bile of hate down your throat simply because it is not you. It's never going to be you!
OhReally, whoever you are, don't you think that Obama is already cured of his psychological issues and unhealthy race consciousness by now if he ever was suffering from your so-called diagnosis? Obama is riding high into the White House and he will be no matter what you say or do.
OhReally, you are definitely an ignorant person-if Obama is currupt and you are an American citizen, why don't you gather your evidence against him and take him to court? What are you waiting for you dummy!
OhReally, are you blind? Of course Obama is black-"black radical" are there any "white radicals?" But wait, is there any thing wrong with having a different point of view from the norm or status quo? OhReally, look-up the word radical again and try to understand it better.
OhReally, you are accusing Obama of being a liar- because of your stupidity, you still continue to say Obama is a muslim which he is not. Is Obama a muslim or are you in a constant stupor to grasp even a simple fact?
OhReally, you are a liar and must I say "the liar."
Sensible Americans have become smarter than you may think and your fear mongering about Obama being a muslim,has become outdated - you are islamaphobic and you want to drag other people down with your ignorance. It would be better for you to indulge yourself in reading about islam and christianity in order to broaden your knowledge.
OhReally, I'm not going to address the other silly accusations.
OhReally, I wonder what experience you are talking about - don't commit suicide thinking that Obama would not know what to do after he is sworn-in - Obama is smart and he is widely read and he is more than capable to rule this our beloved country.
I'll leave this quote with you:
"Every violation of truth is not only a sort of suicide in the liar, but is a stab at the health of human society." - Ralph Waldo Emerson
OhReally1:51AMJul 2nd 2008
Speak...those are not my words but words of others with whom I agree...
It is late but should you like to discuss your ascertions later I have a wealth of Obama information I could share with the world. Everyone who knows me can attest that that library is endless.
Having arrived into adulthood in the early 60s I can tell you that "Oreos" were treated with contempt and I am talking about a progressive University environment. Obama was conceived out of wedlock, by a black man and a white woman. You can not deny that was a problem in that era.
I found your Obama kool-aid indicative of one who chooses to enter this election with blinders on. How sad for this country.
OhReally2:01AMJul 2nd 2008
Africa to Rule the World?
http://www.theobamafile.com/_images/ObamasRelatives.jpg
rebecca5:02AMJul 2nd 2008
OHReally, just because some of us chose to not see things your way, does not mean we have blinders on, as you claim. We simply want more than what John McCain would give us--four more years of failed Bush policies. In case you haven't noticed, the economy is in the tank, our infrastructure is failing and a host of other problems will assail the next president the moment he enters the oval office. McCain admitted he has no understanding of the economy, his foreign policy would be to bomb every country which dared disagreed with us, and he's shown no viable policies to correct the course Bush has set this country on. On the other hand, Obama has plans yet he is also willing to tailor those plans in the course of receiving new information. Over 36 million democrats voted in the primary and there is no way they will abandon the party in favor of McCain come Nov. For those that do, there are sufficient Obama-cans out there to pick up the slack. Because we know a man of vision, intelligence and thoughtfulness when we hear him speak and that man is NOT John McCain.
JOHN6:41AMJul 2nd 2008
Someone ask the president wannabe if he will take his presidential oath on the bible. I think we all know the answer to that - there will be no answer.
Someone ask the junior senator what 57 states he is referring to in his campaign. The only 57 state group is the 57 Islamic states - you know - the "peaceful religion"
Someone ask the inexperienced new boy what he thinks of an institution that would overlook the more experienced female candidate for the new fellow with the charisma, the new suit, the new jokes and the good ole boy democrat mentality of screwing the more qualified female candidate for the job so the new guy can take his step up the ladder.
Now for the enlightened liberals to take their turn to call me racist for pointing out the " inconvenient truth" The junior senator has lost his bearings
OhReally11:01AMJul 2nd 2008
rebecca ...have you read any of the information out there that tells us Obama is a corrupt, anti-american, terrorist-loving, white-hating,liar etc.
Do you think I say those things just for the fun of it?
Which one of those is a lie? None of them.
Do you care or do you indeed choose to be blind to Obama's associations with the underside of our society. Take off those rose-colored glasses and do some research please.
A picture is worth 1000 words
This is what the Obama family thinks of America
http://antzinpantz.com/kns/images/136041.jpg
OhReally11:04AMJul 2nd 2008
Bigot, racist...do you really think those words mean anything? Obama is a scumbag, the fact that he is a black scumbag is irrelevent. Its time we quit trying to be politically correct and call a spade a spade. Sure I can be racist if it makes you happy.
Wake Up Call11:31AMJul 2nd 2008
OhReally, It doesn't matter that you're a Racist we already know that but please stop posting "Photochopped" images as fact. That's just making you looking un-educated. With that being said, I hope that you're posting those images as a joke and not really beliving them, if so then.....words won't be able to describe you.
There is no power behind "white" there's no power behind "black". There's only power in God and Knowledge and you sir, are lacking in both.
OhReally11:43AMJul 2nd 2008
Obama Moves DNC Headquarters to Chicago
No Quarter
I heard the news, and was struck by the audacity of Obama moving the DNC headquarters and employees to the epicenter of machine and mob politics. Ben Smith of Politico.com wrote that the abrupt move is “a major shakeup” and, in an understated phrase, a “departure from tradition.”
I knew at once that Barack Obama was seizing the DNC by the hair, and dragging it into his lair where he can seize control of the Democratic party’s monies, its employees, and any access to its power brokers. The party is no longer, in any way, the party of the Democratic voter. It is now Barack Obama’s party, to do with as he wishes.
The Obama-controlled Chicago machine will hold sway over all Superdelegates running for reelection this year — including their access to money, support, and endorsements.
Those freshman House members will be kneeling and kissing Obama’s ring in no time and, for their sakes, they’d better not have supported Hillary.
Chicago is the home of Obama’s longtime extremist mentors, associates, advisers and benefactors — both before and immediately after his law school years — including Reverends Jeremiah Wright, Otis Moss and James Meeks; Minister Louis Farrakhan; Father Michael Pfleger; Weather Underground terrorists William Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn; marketing guru David Axelrod who created the mix-and-match Obama and Deval Patrick personae; the convicted Antoin “Tony” Rezko who only two years ago enabled a “sweetheart deal” that allowed Barack and Michelle Obama to buy a historic mansion they could ill afford; the Illinois state senator power broker Emil Jones who for almost a year … used his position as leader of the state senate to block anticorruption legislation passed unanimously by the state’s lower house.”
OhReally11:45AMJul 2nd 2008
Another endorsement?
http://i126.photobucket.com/albums/p100/lastofthebenders/FreeRep13-P-BB/ALQ-3-flag-500.gif
speak12:49PMJul 2nd 2008
John,
The only person that has lost his bearing is you simply because you are a stupid person.You are insinuating up to this time that Obama is a muslim, hence your "oath on the bible statement." That statement has long been debunked because Obama is a christian and has never been a practicing muslim. Why do you continue using statement that is untrue? How lame of you!
Even with Obama's brilliance, he is allowed to have a slip of the tongue. You would NEVER reach Obama's brilliance and as such you pick on petty things he says mistakingly and build a mountain out of them. Don't you make a slip sometimes on something you definitely know?
The experience talk is stale already and Obama is the nominee. Hillary fought hard but lost and please don't tell me she was supposed to be the winner. It was a contest and Obama won.
I noticed you are aware of Obama's charisma - isn't that nice? That's a character you should try to emulate. Of course Obama needs that charisma!
Why do you care about Obama's new suit and new jokes? You sound jealous which of course, I know you are.
About Hillary's experience - well, I would say she's been around the White House long before Obama but that does not mean she could do the job better than Obama - both of them were going to be beginners in the highest post of the land.
John, the "inconvenient truth" is that you hate Obama and his guts and you feel so sorry for yourself that you would NEVER reach his status. Boy! How that's killing you!!!
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tfitz101710:05PMJul 1st 2008
How about 1964?