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Obama Hopes to Shift Electoral Map
Jul 8th 2008 6:55PM
Filed Under:eDemocrats, Barack Obama, Featured Stories, 2008 President, Electoral College
A new poll released by Insider Advantage/Poll Position has supporters of Sen. Barack Obama believing that he can win one of the reddest states in the nation, Georgia. With fifteen electoral votes, Georgia is a very attractive prize for the Obama campaign. If Obama is able to wrest Georgia from Republican hands on election night, it would be nearly impossible for Sen. John McCain to win the White House, and could be indicative of a national sweep for the Democrats. The poll shows Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain in a virtual dead heat in the state, McCain leading 46-44% with six percent undecided. Libertarian candidate and Georgia native, Bob Barr, receives four percent in the poll. The numbers are consistent with Insider Advantage's previous poll results in the state, which showed a 44-43 McCain lead on June 20.Insider Advantage credits the large African-American population and relatively young voting age with Obama's success in the state. It also notes that Obama is "saturating" the state with television ads, while McCain has little in the way of advertising running in Georgia. The poll also asked respondents if they would be more or less likely to vote for Obama should he choose former U.S. Senator from Georgia Sam Nunn as his running mate. Fifty-one percent said that they would be more likely to vote for an Obama-Nunn ticket.
The Obama campaign believes that it can fundamentally change the electoral map that has held pretty much unchanged for the last two presidential elections. Georgia, however, will be a difficult state to flip. Georgia last voted for a Democrat in 1992, voting to send a Southern governor, Bill Clinton, to the White House. Prior to that, Georgia voted for the Republican three straight elections after voting for favorite son candidate Jimmy Carter twice in 1976 and 1980. Georgia has again been trending Republican in recent years, voting for Dole, Bush and Bush in 1996, 2000, and 2004. Furthermore, intrastate politics in Georgia has been going the Republican Party's way as well. Governor Sonny Perdue is the first Republican governor in the state since 1872 and was easily reelected to a second term in 2006, bucking a national trend favoring Democrats. Both houses of Georgia's legislature have been controlled by Republicans for all of Perdue's tenure, and the state has a majority Republican Congressional delegation, including two Republican Senators.
Despite the positive results in this poll, Georgia is very unlikely to swing to Obama in November. The Real Clear Politics average of polls in the state shows McCain with a near seven point advantage, with over 50% support in two of the last three. Only three polls taken since February have the race at less than a ten point lead for the Republican. Obama's play for Georgia is more likely a feint in a high stakes game of electoral resources allocation than a serious attempt to flip the state. Obama would like to force McCain to spend precious money and time in a state that should be safe for him, thereby opening up more likely pick up opportunities for Obama in other red states. One thing is for sure, however. Obama must take one or more red states in this election to win the White House. But it probably will not be in the deep South.
Recent Comments
(Page 1 of 3)Susan7:31PMJul 8th 2008
Wow. If he can win just this one state he wins the election?
Well, shoot, then why do the rest of the states even bother to vote?
What a bunch of doo doo.
Republican Grandma for Obama7:32PMJul 8th 2008
I'm a white 60-year-old Republican Grandmother.
My home is few miles from John McCain's ranch in Northern Arizona. And No - his ranch is not in Sedona, as the press likes to state, it is in Cornville. When I moved to Sedona I registered as a John McCain Republican. Unfortunately it was the OLD John McCain, before he became a clone of George Bush.
Today because of my fears for the economy. Bush's war of revenge. And my fear of the control of the Radical Conservative Republican's, lower taxes for the wealthy - the hell with the economy. I have been donating to Obama's Campaign. Why? because I could afford to pay a little more in taxes. I would rather pay a bit more then leave the bill to my grand children, great grandchildren, and great great great grandchildren.
CHUCK7:40PMJul 8th 2008
I love the people that predict that a vote for Obama will result in higher Taxes!
NO!
What he should do is follow the Bush/McCain lead and put the US economy on the foreign credit card.
Then in a few years when the Chinese and Arabs call in the loans they will take over the US. Then English will become our second language and Chinese and Arabic the language of the USA. When are all you
people going to realize that eventually you have to pay back your loans!
The US can't just file bankruptcy.
Or is that is called a depression?
Vera7:42PMJul 8th 2008
The dominos have started to fall.
Watch the colors on the map change.
When the American people realize that their choice is four more years of fighting the wrong war in the wrong country against the wrong enemy. An economy down the gutter. Gas and food prices climbing every day. Our nation's debt being owned by China and Saudi Arabia do you really think the intelligent American citizen will vote for four more years of the same?
Kwaayesnama7:53PMJul 8th 2008
Ok!
Lets think about this?
McCain is the man who voted to send our bravest to die looking for weapons of mass destruction that did not exist.
McCain is the man who does not know that 9-11 was caused by Osama Bin Laden not Sedam Hussein.
McCain is the man who does not know if the Sunnis or Sheits are our enemies!
McCain is the man who put our government on the China, Saudi Arabia credit card.
McCain is the man has adopted virtually the entire Bush agenda, often reversing long held positions and compromising supposed core principles. From Iraq, tax cuts for the wealthy, broken promises on the deficit to opposition to SCHIP, tax credits for health care, overturning Roe v. Wade and a right-wing Supreme Court, John McCain represents a third Bush term.
Get real!
Our only hope is Obama.
David S.7:56PMJul 8th 2008
Obama can probably win some counties in Georgia, but it is doubtful he can take the state. As much as I hate to say it, this is still the state that also voted for George Wallace and Strom Thurmond in the past when they ran on different party platforms for President, and we all know what those were. Yes, times have changed tremendously since those days, but let's not be naive either. There are plenty of old timers - and maybe some not so old - in the deep south that will not vote for a black man for president.
Crystal8:07PMJul 8th 2008
I agree with Susan. Why not just hold the Georgia elections first and save every one from ALL the other states a trip to the polls!
jpgoodrow8:30PMJul 8th 2008
OBAMA REPRESENTS A SHIFT IN THE ELCTORAL MAP ALL RIGHT... A shift to the right.
FLIP-FLOP BARACK = 20-Million Dems -4- McCain '08
braugh9:21PMJul 8th 2008
It's funny how Obama supporters actually think he has a chance (I guess the media makes it look like he has a chance... think again). McCain will crush this guy in November.
FOXYLYNX9:22PMJul 8th 2008
WHAT ELSE IS NEW - HE IS SHIFTY ABOUT EVERYTHING!
Joyce9:28PMJul 8th 2008
Obama is stripping his gears because he doesn't know what direction he's going. His cruise control won't work from now on as more & more people are on to him & his craftiness.
Crystal9:36PMJul 8th 2008
Even Poland doesn't want to talk to him!!
Bob9:44PMJul 8th 2008
Yea , Obama hopes to shift electorial map ? He already has ...All Democrats will be voting Republican except the SUPERDUMB ....
Splash9:54PMJul 8th 2008
Now the Dems are contemplating a national sweep? Don't have that wet dream just yet. McCain will win and he will win big, by at least 10%, and here is why I believe that.
Reading what I see on blogs where, other than the writers, there is relative anonymity, you get a much closer indication of what everyone will do in the privacy of the voting booth than you will get from any poll. This phenomenon happened a lot during the primaries; polls were consistently unreliable.
Call people on the phone (they know you have their phone #; what else do you have), ask them a question face to face in an street or exit poll, or just innocently inquire who their candidate of choice is in small, casual conversation and they will tell you what makes them look good. You don't need to know, and they don't trust you with, how they really feel. It's really none of your nosy business.
A percentage of the people who are saying they will vote for Obama know, deep down, that they won't. They will have a variety of their own personal reasons; he's black, Muslim, young, inexperienced, chauvinist, hates whites, hates Grandmas who raise little black boys or they may even have a legitimate disagreement with Obama's political philosophy.
The bottom line is that they won't openly share that reason with anyone, because, no matter what that reason is, they fear being labeled, or even having to fend off the accusation of being, a racist. This campaign has been too charged with that accusation, even when it wasn't called for.
So, people answer one way, vote another way, and they may never reveal for whom they really voted, in the voting booth, behind the thin veil of anonymity.
Can you blame them?
OhReally10:10PMJul 8th 2008
the electoral map is shifting all right..those on AOL who are informed voters have made the entire
ELECTORAL MAP
RED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Renault10:39PMJul 8th 2008
Whenever someone says "informed voters" do this, or "smart people" or "thinking people" and so on, it tends to negate the whole comment in my way of thinking. Too many people in these blogs imply that only others who agree with them are smart, informed or thinking.
Just because some people will be silenced by that type of ignorance doesn't mean they agree. It just means that it is a more subtle form of cyber-bullying.
Mr. Clark11:42PMJul 8th 2008
Mark Impomeni,
As things stand today, I think it is unlikely that Sen. Obama will take Georgia. Interesting note on his strategy regarding forcing Sen. McCain to spend time and money there when he should be somewhere else.
I was for Sen. Clinton and my experience of watching how the Clintons were treated by the media, the DNC (Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi in particular.) and Sen. Obama himself (through David Plouffe and David Axelrod), I am inclined to vote for Sen. McCain. I believe in my party, but it is very fractured at the moment and I think it best to wait and put the right Democrat in the Nation's highest office rather than someone I do not believe in. With each passing day and more is revealed, I find myself trusting Sen. McCain over Sen. Obama more and more. I am not the most liberal of Democrats. I am ideologically much more of a Democrat than a Republican.
Sen. Obama recently promised to filibuster the FISA bill especially for the retroactive immunity granted to the Telecommunications Companies. He promised and he lied. This is part of a trend on several issues moving him to the center. In my opinion, Sen. Obama is the greater threat to the future of this country than Sen. McCain. Sen. McCain, I believe, is much more sincere and honest than Sen. Obama. That was part of the appeal that Sen. Clinton had for me was the fact despite all her flaws, I still trusted her as the next President of the United States of America. I am starting to see that I would rather know what I am getting (Sen. McCain) than take a gamble on a vague notion of change and rhetoric heavily borrowed from JFK and MLK Jr. In debates, with the exception of October 30, 2007, Sen. Clinton was just short of brilliant compared to a stiff and awkward Sen. Obama who seemed to have trouble thinking on his feet. I grant you that Sen. Obama is a great campaigner and fund raiser, but these are not traits I am looking for in a president.
I was accused along with a couple of other people by one of your commenters on another post of more or less spreading lies and hate regarding Sen. Obama. He claims to read me, but he hasn't until last night and we simply just disagree. I don't talk that way or write that way. I have been mistaken on a particular issue before and set straight usually by the columnist. This site is up for interpretation as to how it is to be used by each individual who uses it.
What I do is read the columnist's article (usually a couple of times) let it resonate, address the columnist only in a respectful fashion assessing what I have gotten from it and usually acknowledging where I agree and/or disagree. I have personally learned a lot from you, Mark, as my thinking has been limited sometimes and you are quick to point that out. With some of your topics< I have shown up unarmed. I have, over time, read others comments and have gotten somewhat used to how people treat each other on here sometimes. But, for the record, I don't hate anybody and this is simply my opinion at this particular moment in time. Come November, I may feel differently. I may consider voting for Sen. Obama if Sen. Clinton is on the ticket. I have never attacked Sen. Obama or any other candidate. I have criticized them on the issues and sometimes on their character. I read a lot each day and I almost always write from a logical standpoint and rarely come from an emotional place. I have been known to spend two hours research before responding to a topic depending on how well versed on it I am.
There are a few of my fellow commenters that I read and respect and do respond to, but I am not on here to always agree with anybody. That would be impossible. If I don't support your candidate, don't take it personally. I have my own vetting process, I get to have my opinion and I have the one vote. I am not on here to tell anyone else how to feel, think or vote. Sorry for taking up so much space here tonight, but I have never found directly responding to another person's negative assessment of my comments fruitful. It just leads to a "virtual" negative relationship of sorts I avoid negative toxic people at all costs.
Sincerely and respectfully,
Mr. Clark
Susan11:45PMJul 8th 2008
He "hopes" to change the electoral map?
Well, as my mom used to say:
"Sh.t in one hand, wish in the other and see which one gets full faster".
Guess we know which of Obama's hands will be full of faster!
PUMAPOWER11:47PMJul 8th 2008
is aol owned by obama ? are these bloggers like knowles, christopher and dave obama shills ? how do these dumb asses explain that red map ? does it mean that the majority of people finally understand what obama is ? by the time the dem convention rolls around, obama's head will implode......he's one long national embarrasment.
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Susan7:30PMJul 8th 2008
I want to know why ANYBODY would travel to Pakistan unless they had to?
It's not exactly the vacation capital of the world, now, is it?
Instead of Aruba or Jamaica I can just see everybody boarding a plane to .....Pakistan?
Seems to me like inquiries should be made about what he was doing for 3 weeks in a country that is nothing but dirt.