Obama Hopes to Shift Electoral Map

A new poll released by Insider Advantage/Poll Position has supporters of Sen. Barack Obama believing that he can win one of the reddest states in the nation, Georgia. With fifteen electoral votes, Georgia is a very attractive prize for the Obama campaign. If Obama is able to wrest Georgia from Republican hands on election night, it would be nearly impossible for Sen. John McCain to win the White House, and could be indicative of a national sweep for the Democrats. The poll shows Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain in a virtual dead heat in the state, McCain leading 46-44% with six percent undecided. Libertarian candidate and Georgia native, Bob Barr, receives four percent in the poll. The numbers are consistent with Insider Advantage's previous poll results in the state, which showed a 44-43 McCain lead on June 20.

Insider Advantage credits the large African-American population and relatively young voting age with Obama's success in the state. It also notes that Obama is "saturating" the state with television ads, while McCain has little in the way of advertising running in Georgia. The poll also asked respondents if they would be more or less likely to vote for Obama should he choose former U.S. Senator from Georgia Sam Nunn as his running mate. Fifty-one percent said that they would be more likely to vote for an Obama-Nunn ticket.

The Obama campaign believes that it can fundamentally change the electoral map that has held pretty much unchanged for the last two presidential elections. Georgia, however, will be a difficult state to flip. Georgia last voted for a Democrat in 1992, voting to send a Southern governor, Bill Clinton, to the White House. Prior to that, Georgia voted for the Republican three straight elections after voting for favorite son candidate Jimmy Carter twice in 1976 and 1980. Georgia has again been trending Republican in recent years, voting for Dole, Bush and Bush in 1996, 2000, and 2004. Furthermore, intrastate politics in Georgia has been going the Republican Party's way as well. Governor Sonny Perdue is the first Republican governor in the state since 1872 and was easily reelected to a second term in 2006, bucking a national trend favoring Democrats. Both houses of Georgia's legislature have been controlled by Republicans for all of Perdue's tenure, and the state has a majority Republican Congressional delegation, including two Republican Senators.

Despite the positive results in this poll, Georgia is very unlikely to swing to Obama in November. The Real Clear Politics average of polls in the state shows McCain with a near seven point advantage, with over 50% support in two of the last three. Only three polls taken since February have the race at less than a ten point lead for the Republican. Obama's play for Georgia is more likely a feint in a high stakes game of electoral resources allocation than a serious attempt to flip the state. Obama would like to force McCain to spend precious money and time in a state that should be safe for him, thereby opening up more likely pick up opportunities for Obama in other red states. One thing is for sure, however. Obama must take one or more red states in this election to win the White House. But it probably will not be in the deep South.

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