With Surge Over, Troops Could Be Coming Home

Admiral Michael Mullen said today that he expects to be able to recommend troop reductions in Iraq this fall, as security gains from the troop surge continue to hold. Mullen made his comments in a Pentagon press conference with Defense Secretary Robert Gates on the occasion of the removal of the last of five additional brigades ordered into Iraq as a part of the surge. The withdrawal of the third infantry division's second brigade officially ended the surge, and went little noticed in the mainstream press, itself an indication of the strategy's effectiveness.

Mullen said that any additional troop withdrawals would be dependent on conditions on the ground in Iraq, but that the trend was looking good for reductions.
"I won't go so far as to say that progress in Iraq from a military perspective has reached a tipping point or is reversible - it has not, and it is not. But security is unquestionably and remarkably better. Indeed, if these trends continue I expect to be able early this fall to recommend to the secretary and the president further troop reductions."
Now that the surge has ended, Iraq Commander Gen. David Petraeus will evaluate the ability of Iraqis to hold the security gains for the next 45 days. That would put a decision on troop withdrawals sometime after Labor Day, the traditional start of the presidential election season.

The surge has been an unquestionable success, resulting in dramatic reductions in violence, a greatly enhanced Iraqi Army and police force, and the defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Military planners are now turning their attention to Afghanistan, where a stubborn insurgency, fueled by cross-border attacks from Taliban militants seeking sanctuary in Pakistan, is increasing pressure on U.S., Afghan, and NATO forces. An increase in troop levels seems warranted in that country. With Gen. Petraeus the new head of U.S. Central Command, which has jurisdiction over the Afghan war, any change in strategy there will likely closely resemble the troop surge in Iraq.

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