Over the weekend, Hillary Clinton's campaign confirmed that it is now $20 million dollars in debt. Some have speculated that any deal that lays the groundwork for her exit from the Democratic race will have Barack Obama picking up Clinton's trail of unpaid bills. While many Clinton supporters scoff at this notion, and cheer their candidate to soldier on until the convention in August, there may be a more compelling reason to settle up before then. Actually, make that 11 million reasons. From US News and World Report:

Experts disagree on whether or not Clinton will actually stick in the fight until the Democratic National Convention in August. But the date looms large for another reason--at least, if she hopes to recoup any of the million s she has sunk into the campaign. Thanks to a little-known provision in 2002's McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform bill, a campaign must repay the loan to a candidate before Election Day. In this case, that's the nominating convention. After the election has passed, a bankrupt campaign is limited to gathering just $250,000 from contributors, which means that modes sum is all it can give back to a candidate. In short, Clinton stands to lose $11,150,000. "If she wants to be repaid, she'd have to move on that between now and the national convention," says former Federal Election Commission chairman Michael Toner."

Each time the Clintons have dipped into their personal fortune to help fund the campaign, they've termed the infusion a "loan," which, one assumes, is meant to be re-paid. The irony that John McCain's legislation (so reviled by conservatives) might be the final nudge that pushes Clinton from the race is all a bit Twilight Zone. But the rub here is that if Clinton exits the race now, her fundraising opportunities go away while, baring an Obama bailout, the debt remains. That means she may opt to stay in, try to spend a tiny amount in the remaining contests, raise cash, and then quit at the last possible moment, right before the convention so as to avoid the campaign finance restrictions.

No word yet on how much of the $42.3 million Mitt Romney lent his own campaign that Mitt has bee able to recoup.

Calling St. Paul. Come in, St. Paul. It seems there may be some trouble brewing for this summer's GOP convention in St. Paul, Minnesota. You see, another Paul is looming large on the horizon, threatening to stir up mischief at the August coronation of John, the would-be Baptist of that new and improved sect of Republicanism--Bush-Lite, for lack of a better term. As Paul's supporters learned from Guy Fawkes, surprise is the name of the game.

From The LA Times:

Virtually all the nation's political attention in recent weeks has focused on the compelling state-by-state presidential nomination struggle between two Democrats and the potential for party-splitting strife over there.

But in the meantime, quietly, largely under the radar of most people, the forces of Rep. Ron Paul have been organizing across the country to stage an embarrassing public revolt against Sen. John McCain when Republicans gather for their national convention in St. Paul at the beginning of September.

Yes, he was dissed by Fox News, taunted by his rivals, scorned in the press, but Ron Paul is not ready to stop preaching the gospel to his followers. In fact, the proselytizing continues apace, and St. Paul's stage is set to provide the Texas Congressman with ample microphone time.

Via ABC News, the inevitable has happened:

For the first time this campaign season, Barack Obama has surpassed Hillary Clinton's support among superdelegates, according to the ABC News delegate estimate.

The tipping point occurred this morning, when New Jersey's Rep. Donald Payne defected from Clinton to Obama, and Oregon's Rep. Peter DeFazio, previously uncommitted, saw fit to join up with the Obama wagon trail.

By ABC's count, that gives Obama 267 supers, while Clinton has 256. Later this morning, Clinton edged back with the endorsement of Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carter, so it looks as though she only trails now by 1 superdelegate.

UPDATE: Back up to a two-point lead. Obama nabs another.
UPDATE II: Make it a three-point lead courtesy of another California super, Ed Espinoza.
UPDATE III: Up to seven. Wilber Lee Jeffcoat (S.C.), Vernon Watkins (Ca.), Mazie Hirono (Hi.), and Laurie Weahkee (N.M.) all get on board Obama's bus.
UPDATE IV: Add five more for Obama on Saturday, including another defector.
UPDATE V: Since last Tuesday's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, Obama has picked up 24 superdelegates. Clinton has received 1.5, a net gain of 22.5 for Obama.
UPDATE VI: Hawaii's Sen. Akaka, and Idaho Dem. Chairman Keith Roark both give Obama the nod. Today's score, 4-0.


My hunch is that many supers were waiting to see if Clinton was going to make a graceful exit from the race. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem like it's going to happen. Therefore, she has put many reluctant supersdelegates in the position of having to do the dirty work.

How dire is Hillary's situation? She is now asking fence-sitters for their secret allegiance. If your supporters won't publicly declare their support, you know you're in trouble.

Well, the proverbial fat lady, she has ditched the sotto voce and is belting it out loudly for all to hear.

Rasumssen Reports, the widely respected polling organization, has decided it has seen enough. From the company's website:

...while Senator Clinton has remained close and competitive in every meaningful measure, she is a close second and the race is over. It has become clear that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

At the moment, Senator Clinton's team is busily trying to convince Superdelegates and pundits that she is more electable than Barack Obama. For reasons discussed in a separate article, it doesn't matter. Even if every single Superdelegate was convinced that the former First Lady is somewhat more electable than Obama, that is not enough of a reason to deny him the nomination.

With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will end our daily tracking poll of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama.

What can you say? When polling firms join the chorus and decide there's nothing more to say about this race, you'd think that reality would have to start sinking in with one HRC. All that's really left for her now is to further divide and damage the party. It's her choice, I guess.

Arianna Huffington has been vindicated. Last week on her site, she recounted how--at a Hollywood dinner party at the home of Candice Bergen--John McCain and his wife Cindy boasted that they hadn't voted for George W. Bush back in 2000.

McCain denied Arianna's account via a spokesperson, who said, "consider the source." Well, The New York Times and The Washington Post went out and found a couple of sources of their own--People who were also sitting near the McCains, and heard the remarks.

From the Post:

In separate phone interviews, Bradley Whitford and Richard Schiff--both of whom starred in the television political drama "The West Wing"--said the senator made the remarks after he spoke at length about his reservations about Bush becoming president.

Now that is rich. The McCains rubbing elbows with the Hollywood elite, and holding forth on their dislike of Bush. There's a little "red-meat" for conservatives to chew on.

I guess we should all consider the source whenever McCain fires up the Straight-Talk Express.

Humor break, of sorts.



That's just a about the strangest political ad I've ever seen. The '50's "Leave it to Beaver" soundtrack. The weird editing, the 27 bottles of scotch. It's an instant classic, no?

For a little while there, it looked like Hillary Clinton had a shot at mounting a comeback. But on Tuesday, that pesky math caught up with her. There's simply not enough time, or delegates, remaining for her to pull it out. Barack Obama has won. Such is the prognosis from all of those but the most hardened loyalists. Here then, a compendium of obituaries for Hillary's '08 bid for the presidency.

First, a few editorials from today's papers:

The Seattle Times gives us "Clinton's end: time to yield and unify," that conculdes:

Clinton's campaign is over. She is perhaps the last to know.

Today in Superdelegate news:

A defection. Virginia's Jennifer McClellan, who had both previously endorsed Hillary Clinton, has now jumped ship (along with George McGovern) and supports Barack Obama.

Clinton picked up Rep. Heath Shuler (N.C.), and Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth. Clinton won both of their districts yesterday.

Obama also got the nod from N.C. State Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek, and from Jeanette Council, also formerly undecided from N.C. And then came word that California's Inola Henry has declared for Obama.

Shuler and Meek cancel each other out, leaving Coucil and Henry as unmatched pick-ups, but because McClellan pulled their support from Clinton (-1 for Clinton, +1 for Obama), the net gain for today stands thus:

Obama 4, Clinton 1.

The first big superdelegate name to declare in the wake of Hillary Clinton's disappointing showing last night. Get ready. The flood is coming. Barack Obama heads to Washington D.C. tomorrow to talk to uncommitted superdelegates.

No doubt there are more than a few supers who'd like Hillary to make their decision a moot point. Geroge McGovern, the former Senator from South Dakota, as well as a former Hillary supporter and friend of the Clintons, doesn't appear to be content to wait.

McGovern had previously endorsed Clinton, so that means a loss in the superdelegate column for Hillary, and a pick-up for Obama. The message is pretty clear.

An e-mail from my colleague Liza Porteus Viana details McGovern's call-in appearance on MSNBC:

Not sure if you heard McGovern,

"I think the mathematics indicate Senator Obama is probably going to be the nominee. I have no regrets about Senator Clinton... but I think the time has come for democrats to unite and to get ready for a tough race this fall against Senator McCain. And that's why I'm hopeful that Senator Clinton will see fit fairly soon..."

He talked about his conversation with Bill Clinton, during which he announced his intention. Bill "of course wishes I had stayed with HIllary." But "we didn't have one single angry word." Bill did not admit Hillary's chances are next to impossible. "He recognizes it's a tough race but he didn't express any of those views."

Thanks Liza!

Update: Clinton gets a super of her own, post Indiana./N.C.

That's the news leaked by The Drudge Report, a suspect source if ever there was one, but now confirmed by the AP and Howard Wolfson. The details? Hillary Clinton has dipped into her personal fortune once again, loaning her campaign another $6.4 million last month, and that she'll be transferring even more funds from the joint bank account soon.

The last time the alarm was sounded that hard financial times had befallen Clinton's campaign, donors opened their wallets big time, and came to her rescue. Since then, however, we've learned how much money the Clintons made since Bill left office, and, after yesterday's primaries, Hillary's chances suddenly look bleak at best. So will loyal Clinton supporters ride to the rescue yet again?

Camp Clinton has struggled with debt ever since Super Tuesday. Last night, I even heard one MSNBC pundit suggest that one factor in any deal paving Clinton's exit from the race would be for Obama to agree to pay off Hillary's outstanding campaign debts.

Meanwhile, kos wonders if Hillary will stay in the race to try and raise money to cover her debts. I suppose he means that she'd technically still be in it, hold fundraisers and continue to take in money online, but not actually spend all that much in the next few primaries.