Tommy Christopher

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That line is what we in the biz call a logical fallacy. As logical fallacies go, it's pretty innocuous, even comical. I picture an apoplectic bureaucrat somewhere screaming into the face of the 987th person to come to the window and ask, "What's wrong with my Driver's Manual?"

A far more dangerous logical fallacy is all the rage now, and it has a lot to do with intentionally blank pages. The press has given John McCain a free ride for years now, and as a result, 45% of Hillary Clinton's supporters have something like this to say:

If Hillary Clinton doesn't win, I will vote for McCain in November.

It is a happy accident that David Knowles wrote about this phenomenon earlier today, unbeknownst to me. This serves as an excellent companion to that story.

Now, I understand disappointment, and a certain amount of bitterness toward an opponent in a hard-fought contest, but this makes about as much sense as rooting for the Red Sox if the Yankees lose, unless you're Rudy Giuliani, or saying that if you can't have your favorite flavor of ice cream, you'll take cyanide instead.

My theory is that many of these voters have the same general idea about McCain that the rest of America does, that he's a free-thinking, maverick moderate who even leans to the left here and there, a great down-the-middle choice. Let's test that theory out. This poll is for Hillary Clinton supporters only. Take it, and then read on.

If you missed Countdown tonight, you missed what is perhaps Bill O'Reilly's finest moment. The conservative talk show host, culture warrior, and loofah enthusiast has rarely been so relatable. I rarely, if ever, find myself identifying with the author of "Those Who Trespass," but I'm right with him in this clip.

Now, Keith Olbermann seemed to think that this clip should be embarrassing to O'Reilly, but anyone who's ever had a piece of technology take up revolutionary arms against them, be it the "blue screen of death" on your laptop, or the accidental use of the "Live" button on the DVR remote during a football game that you started watching late, or even the obnoxious noise your vacuum makes to let you know there's too much hair in the brush, has got to relate to Billo's apoplectic reaction to the cruel misdeeds of his TelePrompter.

Although I reported last week, with much disappointment, that John Edwards does not intend to endorse a candidate before the Democratic National Convention, he seems to be finding other ways to get his point across. First, there was this possible "slip", and then, this weekend, he had some words of caution for Hillary Clinton. Via CNN's Political Ticker:

Appearing on CBS' Face the Nation, Edwards said Clinton has to be "has to be really careful that she's not damaging our prospects," with continuing to take jabs at Obama.

"She doesn't need my advice, she knows this full well," Edwards said. "If she makes the case for herself, which she's completely entitled to do, she has to be really careful that she's not damaging our prospects, the Democratic Party, and our cause, for the fall."

Now, I do still believe that Edwards would do everyone a favor by weighing in, but this may just do the trick. It sounded pretty friendly for a shot across the bow, but it was also unmistakable. The warnings aren't going to get any nicer.

I renew my recommendation that Hillary drop out now and accept the VP nod, while it can still look like it was her idea. The longer she holds on now, the harder the push will be.

The line is from The Rocky Horror Picture Show's double entendre-loving audiences, but it has its application to Hillary Clinton's exit from the Democratic Primary race. Ben Smith at Politico runs through some of Hillary's possible primary parachutes:

1. Never Say Die: There's no rule that Clinton has to drop out just because she can't win.

2. Extract a Job: Clinton still has leverage...force Obama to offer her something to make it stop - a spot on the ticket, a Cabinet post...

3. Cash Out: ... press Obama for fundraising help to retire her mountain of debt, then campaign for him hard enough that nobody can blame her for his inevitable defeat.

4. Kicking and Screaming: Sometimes, it takes a silver-haired party figure to tell the candidate it's over.

5. Racial Meltdown: Defections from black supporters such as Rangel and Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (Ohio) would threaten Clinton with the mantle of racial division, anathema to her husband's legacy and career poison in American - and particularly Democratic - politics.

6. Unconditional surrender: ...win his gratitude, and that of his supporters, by withdrawing cleanly and quickly, and working hard for his election.

If I know anything at all about Hillary Clinton, the primary calculation involved here will be how best to use her exit as a lever to her political objectives. This is a rare opportunity for her to make what lemonade she can from her electoral lemons. With that in mind, let's take a look at what she can do, what she should do, and what she likely will do.

Good morning, and welcome again to Videos of the Week. The big story this week was, of course, the virtual coronation of Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee. We have a couple of clips related to the making of that sausage, plus a few morsels of John McCain, a couple of cool tricks, and a Mike Gravel chaser.

Before we get to those, I just want to quickly plug Political Machine reader Tom Fitzsimmons' satire work over at The Specious Report, and at Daily Kos. Drop in there, laugh it up, and leave him a good rating, won't you?

By popular demand, I am adding the Obama 59 state gaffe, right after the jump.

Leading off this week is a video from my buddy Cenk at The Young Turks. For reasons that will be obvious later, I'm going to tell you nothing about it.

Update: 3 more Supers go to Obama today. See end of story for details. 6pm:Make that 4.

As my friend, David Knowles, noted yesterday, Barack Obama has now taken the Superdelegate lead from Hillary Clinton for the first time in this campaign. After taking the lead, more and more supes began to fall Obama's way. Even before Tuesday, the delegate math had stopped adding up for Hillary.

The Political Machine also reports that Rasmussen has stopped polling the Democratic Primary race, Terry McAuliffe has signaled that the end is near, and negotiations for a VP slot are already under way.

In the face of such inevitability, the question is now, not if, but when Hillary Clinton Conventional wisdom varies a lot on this, from just after the Kentucky primary on May 20, to June 3, the date of the last primary, with some convinced she'll still go to the convention. I suggest a different date. If not today, then tomorrow or Monday. She can skip right over the defeat and go right to accepting that Vice Presidency, having ended on the high note of a victory in Indiana.

The alternative is to watch a flood of Supers go to Obama, and possibly even lose in West Virginia and Kentucky. She can be Rocky Balboa from the first film, or William Wallace's vanquished Braveheart.

Whatever happens, I want to see Democrats behaving with grace and good sportsmanship toward Hillary and her supporters. Obama himself has struck the right chord, as did Senator Claire McCaskill on Thursday's conference call, but the same cannot be said for Ted Kennedy. Worse than that, though, was this display of disrespect on CNN Tuesday night, which I have just now seen for myself.

Since Tim Russert and I declared the Democratic nomination settled, there has been a whirl of discussion about Hillary joining Obama's ticket as Vice President. According to Politico's Ben Smith, however, prominent Obama supporter and Democratic Party royal Ted Kennedy says, "Not so fast...":

Obama should choose a running mate who "is in tune with his appeal for the nobler aspirations of the American people," Kennedy said. "If we had real leadership - as we do with Barack Obama - in the No. 2 spot as well, it'd be enormously helpful."

Wow. What a D move, and I don't mean "Democratic." I can't wait to see the comments on this one. Now, I know that Ted is a beloved figure among Democrats, and who am I to argue with an elder statesman? I'm going to have to re-think my whole position on this "Dream Ticket."

(...3, 2, 1) OK, I'm done. You're wrong, Ted, wrong! In bold fonts!

The Clinton braintrust has been making news the past few days, and not in a good way. First, there was the revelation that I was righter about Mark Penn than I knew. From Time Magazine:

As aides looked over the campaign calendar (last year), chief strategist Mark Penn confidently predicted that an early win in California would put her over the top because she would pick up all the state's 370 delegates. It sounded smart, but as every high school civics student now knows, Penn was wrong: Democrats, unlike the Republicans, apportion their delegates according to vote totals, rather than allowing any state to award them winner-take-all. Sitting nearby, veteran Democratic insider Harold M. Ickes, who had helped write those rules, was horrified - and let Penn know it. "How can it possibly be," Ickes asked, "that the much vaunted chief strategist doesn't understand proportional allocation?" And yet the strategy remained the same, with the campaign making its bet on big-state victories.

Ouch! Then, last night on Countdown, Keith Olbermann reported from an "unimpeachable source" (pun intended?) that Howard Wolfson is in talks to write a book, tough to do if you plan on going all the way to the White House. (Wolfson denies it.)

Dismissed campaign manager Patti Solis-Doyle is also purportedly working on a book deal. Aside from the fascination of comparing the Rashomon-like accounts of various insiders, these books will serve as a primer on how to run a wildly entertaining campaign.

See, here's another good reason for Hillary Clinton to wrap things up sooner rather than later. She gave a rather ham-handed assessment of her electoral appeal that, I'm sure, will be made hay of. From NY Times:

"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in the interview, citing an article by The Associated Press.

It "found how Senator Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."

"There's a pattern emerging here," she said.

Does Hillary Clinton believe that white Americans are the hard working ones, and all of Barack Obama's supporters are lazy blacks and college kids? Of course not, but that's how it sounds to unfriendly ears.

Now, I know what she meant, but the longer this goes on, the more hits Hillary stands to take. Yesterday, Countdown reported that Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson is in talks for a book deal (Wolfson denies this), and Time had an embarrassing revelation about Mark Penn. I think Barack Obama should do whatever it takes to get Hillary on the ticket right now. Seat Michigan and Florida? Fine, seat the delegation from Brigadoon, for all I care. Let's just get on with it.

After months of advising his listeners to vote for Hillary Clinton in open Democratic primaries, ultra-conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh is changing his tune by urging Democratic superdelegates to force the issue and make Barack Obama their nominee. From CNN:

"I now believe he would be the weakest of the Democrat nominees," Limbaugh, among the most powerful voices in conservative radio, said on his program. "I now urge the Democrat superdelegates to make your mind up and publicly go for Obama."

"Barack Obama has shown he cannot get the votes Democrats need to win -- blue-collar, working-class people," Limbaugh said. "He can get effete snobs, he can get wealthy academics, he can get the young, and he can get the black vote, but Democrats do not win with that."

But Jamal Simmons, a Democratic strategist and Obama supporter, disagreed, saying the Democratic Party has "the best coalition to go out and talk to people across racial lines, which are the unions."

Limbaugh's plan to interfere in the Democratic Primary process, dubbed "Operation Chaos," was given legitimacy yesterday when Obama supporter John Kerry attributed Hillary Clinton's victory in Indiana to the gabber's tactic. What is behind this reversal? Is Rush being sincere? Is he mad at Bill Clinton for "hitting on" his "date?" Or is it all some kind of triple-reverse psychology?