2008 President

The Obama campaign doesn't talk about it much, but will admit when pressed that they started this process knowing that there was a small, but not insignificant, segment of the population that just will not vote for an African-American.

Running just below the surface in the campaign and in the media, is the undercurrent of racism still to be found in pockets around the country - rural, urban and suburban. While Senator Obama's message is inclusive and pan-racial, the workers on the ground have felt the sting that the campaign itself does not wish to highlight and the media has mostly ignored.

The Washington Post today has some harsh stories of field workers, phone bankers and surrogates having doors slammed in their faces, being called the most derogatory of racial terms and physically threatened.

Victoria Switzer, a retired social studies teacher, was on phone-bank duty one night during the Pennsylvania primary campaign. One night was all she could take: "It wasn't pretty." She made 60 calls to prospective voters in Susquehanna County, her home county, which is 98 percent white. The responses were dispiriting. One caller, Switzer remembers, said he couldn't possibly vote for Obama and concluded: "Hang that darky from a tree!"

Documentary filmmaker Rory Kennedy, the daughter of the late Robert F. Kennedy, said she, too, came across "a lot of racism" when campaigning for Obama in Pennsylvania. One Pittsburgh union organizer told her he would not vote for Obama because he is black, and a white voter, she said, offered this frank reason for not backing Obama: "White people look out for white people, and black people look out for black people."

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That line is what we in the biz call a logical fallacy. As logical fallacies go, it's pretty innocuous, even comical. I picture an apoplectic bureaucrat somewhere screaming into the face of the 987th person to come to the window and ask, "What's wrong with my Driver's Manual?"

A far more dangerous logical fallacy is all the rage now, and it has a lot to do with intentionally blank pages. The press has given John McCain a free ride for years now, and as a result, 45% of Hillary Clinton's supporters have something like this to say:

If Hillary Clinton doesn't win, I will vote for McCain in November.

It is a happy accident that David Knowles wrote about this phenomenon earlier today, unbeknownst to me. This serves as an excellent companion to that story.

Now, I understand disappointment, and a certain amount of bitterness toward an opponent in a hard-fought contest, but this makes about as much sense as rooting for the Red Sox if the Yankees lose, unless you're Rudy Giuliani, or saying that if you can't have your favorite flavor of ice cream, you'll take cyanide instead.

My theory is that many of these voters have the same general idea about McCain that the rest of America does, that he's a free-thinking, maverick moderate who even leans to the left here and there, a great down-the-middle choice. Let's test that theory out. This poll is for Hillary Clinton supporters only. Take it, and then read on.

My prediction two weeks ago on Indiana and North Carolina proved to be total folly, today's foretelling will likely prove to be superfluous.

Today West Virginia Democrats cast their votes in a primary. They have 28 delegates.

Hillary Clinton will win West Virginia. And with a comfortable margin (8-10 points).

But it won't matter.

It appeared on a lonely street corner in Chicago: a stenciled silhouette of Barack Obama holding a microphone that connects to the United States. Immediately one wonders, What does it mean?

We can assume that this graffiti, somewhere on the streets of his hometown, is a gesture of support for Senator Obama. But it's hard to deny the bleak effect it has on the viewer.

Obama stands on a street corner--one hand holding a microphone, the other hand pleading--while on the other side hovers the United States, streaked with dripping paint. The only link between the Senator and his country is a long, meandering wire that he seems one step away from tripping over.

The raw loneliness is also marked by the image's physical disconnectedness. A passerby on one side of the street only sees Obama speaking to a rally, while someone on the other side sees nothing but the U.S. floating from a frail string. Only a person turning the corner or standing on the other side of the street sees the complete image. Even then, the street corner's three-dimensional divide is hard to ignore.

But, what about the image itself? Is the Illinois senator and probable Democratic presidential nominee speaking to us or through us? Is the fate of our nation inexplicably linked to this agent of change, or are we simply the vehicle or amplifier for his personal message and ambitions?

B. Brandon Barker is the author of the novel Operation EMU.

From a strict policy perspective, this formulation is, of course, absurd. As Clinton, McCain, and Obama will all tell you, the differences between Clinton and Obama pale in comparison to those between Clinton and McCain. Really, it isn't even close. Virtually every single substantive issue that Clinton and Obama support, McCain does not, and vice-versa. McCain offers huge corporate tax breaks, Clinton and Obama do not. Clinton and Obama want to make sure that a woman has the right to choose whether or not to have an abortion, McCain does not. McCain has even voted to ban funds for abortions in cases of rape and incest. On the Iraq war, McCain will not hasten a pullout. Clinton and Obama will. Clinton and Obama have health-care proposals whose goal is Universal care, McCain does not. And on and on.

So why the cognitive dissonance? Well, most of the people who employ the "Hillary or McCain" retort do so for far less sensible reasons than actual policy distinctions.

The public corruption trial of businessman and political fundraiser Tony Rezko is expected to end today with closing arguments entered by both sides in Federal District court in Chicago. Rezko stands accused of engaging in kickback schemes involving two powerful Illinois state boards totaling $7 million. Rezko raised funds for a number of prominent Illinois officials, including Sen. Barack Obama, and the outcome of the trial could have an impact on the presidential race. While Obama is not accused of any wrongdoing, a Rezko conviction would be a major embarrassment to his campaign.

The timing of the trial could not have been worse for Obama, whose relationship to Rezko remains in question. Rezko assisted Obama with the purchase of his suburban Chicago home and was a prominent financial backer of the former community organizer's various political campaigns. In 2005, while Rezko was known to be under Federal investigation, Obama entered into a complicated financial transaction involving Rezko to purchase his $1.6 million home while Rezko's wife purchased the adjacent lot, which the home's owner agreed to split off from the property, for $625,000. The Obamas paid $300,000 less than the asking price for the house. Later, Rezko sold a portion of the adjacent lot to the Obamas for $105,000, rendering Rezko's parcel practically unusable. After first stonewalling on questions about the deal, Obama has since admitted that his involvement with Rezko in the transaction lacked judgment, calling it, "a bone-headed mistake."

If Hillary is imploding, nobody told the good folks in West (By God!) Virginia and Kentucky. She's still showing huge margins of support.

RealClearPolitics has the roundup:

Suffolk is out with a new poll in West Virginia (May 10-11) showing Clinton with a 36-point lead:

Clinton 60
Obama 24
Undecided 8

And Research 2000 has new numbers in Kentucky (May 7-9), where Clinton also enjoys a substantial 27-point lead over Obama:

Clinton 58
Obama 31
Undecided 11

Even with results like this, we probably won't see another shift in the race back to Hillary. These results are "baked in," they are expected, and in fact anything less than a 20 point margin may be looked on as a Hillary loss. Apart from some handwringing over Obama's lack of appeal to Appalachian voters, the Democrats will remind themselves that most Americans aren't from the hills and hollers, and that will be that.

And Kentucky and West Virginia will go red in the fall. The Democrats will just have to win without them, if they can.

Not long after MoveOn.org decided to endorse Barack Obama, the group announced a video ad contest: "Obama in 30 Seconds'.

5.5 million votes were cast for the 1,100 submissions and 15 finalists were selected. An eclectic group of 24 judges that included Ben Affleck, Jesse Jackson, Oliver Stone and Moby, chose the winner, "Obamacan" by David Gaw and Lance Mungia of Monrovia, CA.

MoveOn's donors have committed $200,000 to run this ad in selected markets.

London's Telegraph caught it and HuffPost brings it to our shores... Hillary Clinton referring to the next president as a "he." Oops.

Speaking to voters in the Appalachian state, she said: "All the kitchen table issues that everybody talks to me about are ones that the next president can actually do something about, if he actually cares about it." Realising her faux pas, she added: "More likely if she cares about it!"

Sometimes a verbal slip up is just a verbal slip up. I'm not going to get all Freudian on Hillary and suggest that in her mind the race is already over. Though her language in general over the past week has suggested that she's slowly facing up the realities of her impending loss:

Though Mrs Clinton continues to make her case as the best next president of the US, she has noticeably softened her tone on Mr. Obama in the past few days, after weeks of direct attacks on his readiness for the White House. She also much less regularly peppers her speeches with the phrase "When I am president..." - another sign that her inner conviction is fading.

For his part, it's clear that Barack Obama has moved on. It appears he's done with the primary states, realizing that this year the next president will indeed be a man. Obama headed for Missouri, sure to be up for grabs in November, where he's begun a full scale attack on John McCain's economic proposals.

The new ad airing in West Virginia by Barack Obama is a :30 second spot titled "Service." It makes sure to let the Mountain state voters know about his "Christian faith."