Hillary Clinton

First Read's Domenico Montanaro makes a good point about why things aren't looking good for Hillary Clinton even though she'll win big in West Virginia today. The problem? Numbers:

Obama has now picked up 25 (with Romer would be 26) [superdelegates] this past week. That's more delegates than Clinton will net out of the West Virginia's 28 delegates at stake. And if Obama rolls out four more, he'd have gained more superdelegates in the past week than there are delegates at stake in West Virginia.

First Read is apparently sorely in need of a copy-editor, but the inference is a valid one. With the superdelegates now going over to Obama in droves, the remaining delegates that Clinton will net from West Virginia and Kentucky will be all but negated. Even James Carville seems to know the end is nigh.

If there's anything positive to come from the Clinton campaign chairman's Meet the Press appearance on Sunday, it's this: There is Scotch in heaven.

During a passionate defense of Senator Clinton's narrowing chances for the Democratic nomination, Terry McAuliffe invoked a vision of his late father and host Tim Russert's father "both in heaven right now probably having a Scotch and looking down and saying, you know what, this fight goes on."

Which hits us all right here. The only problem is, Tim Russert's father is not dead. In fact, according to the Meet the Press host, he's "sitting on a barcalounger" somewhere. [YouTube via Wonkette]



B. Brandon Barker is the author of the novel Operation EMU.

From a strict policy perspective, this formulation is, of course, absurd. As Clinton, McCain, and Obama will all tell you, the differences between Clinton and Obama pale in comparison to those between Clinton and McCain. Really, it isn't even close. Virtually every single substantive issue that Clinton and Obama support, McCain does not, and vice-versa. McCain offers huge corporate tax breaks, Clinton and Obama do not. Clinton and Obama want to make sure that a woman has the right to choose whether or not to have an abortion, McCain does not. McCain has even voted to ban funds for abortions in cases of rape and incest. On the Iraq war, McCain will not hasten a pullout. Clinton and Obama will. Clinton and Obama have health-care proposals whose goal is Universal care, McCain does not. And on and on.

So why the cognitive dissonance? Well, most of the people who employ the "Hillary or McCain" retort do so for far less sensible reasons than actual policy distinctions.

If Hillary is imploding, nobody told the good folks in West (By God!) Virginia and Kentucky. She's still showing huge margins of support.

RealClearPolitics has the roundup:

Suffolk is out with a new poll in West Virginia (May 10-11) showing Clinton with a 36-point lead:

Clinton 60
Obama 24
Undecided 8

And Research 2000 has new numbers in Kentucky (May 7-9), where Clinton also enjoys a substantial 27-point lead over Obama:

Clinton 58
Obama 31
Undecided 11

Even with results like this, we probably won't see another shift in the race back to Hillary. These results are "baked in," they are expected, and in fact anything less than a 20 point margin may be looked on as a Hillary loss. Apart from some handwringing over Obama's lack of appeal to Appalachian voters, the Democrats will remind themselves that most Americans aren't from the hills and hollers, and that will be that.

And Kentucky and West Virginia will go red in the fall. The Democrats will just have to win without them, if they can.

London's Telegraph caught it and HuffPost brings it to our shores... Hillary Clinton referring to the next president as a "he." Oops.

Speaking to voters in the Appalachian state, she said: "All the kitchen table issues that everybody talks to me about are ones that the next president can actually do something about, if he actually cares about it." Realising her faux pas, she added: "More likely if she cares about it!"

Sometimes a verbal slip up is just a verbal slip up. I'm not going to get all Freudian on Hillary and suggest that in her mind the race is already over. Though her language in general over the past week has suggested that she's slowly facing up the realities of her impending loss:

Though Mrs Clinton continues to make her case as the best next president of the US, she has noticeably softened her tone on Mr. Obama in the past few days, after weeks of direct attacks on his readiness for the White House. She also much less regularly peppers her speeches with the phrase "When I am president..." - another sign that her inner conviction is fading.

For his part, it's clear that Barack Obama has moved on. It appears he's done with the primary states, realizing that this year the next president will indeed be a man. Obama headed for Missouri, sure to be up for grabs in November, where he's begun a full scale attack on John McCain's economic proposals.

We have already discussed crackpot theory #1: Hillary 2012, which necessitates an Obama loss. In this theory she stays in not because she can win, but to make sure that McCain wins so she can run against him later. The downside and where the theory falls flat is the assumption that the party would forgive her enough to give her a plausible run.

Theory #2, which is plausible, is that she is staying in because the longer she stays in, the more leverage she gets. This article suggests that she will deploy that leverage to demand the Veep slot from a hesitant Barack Obama:

A person close to her, with whom her campaign staff has counseled at various points, said this week, "I think the following will happen: Obama will be in a position where the party declares him the nominee by the first week in June. She'll still be fighting with everybody -- the Rules Committee, the party leaders -- and arguing, 'I'm winning these key states; I've got almost half the delegates. I have a whole constituency he hasn't reached. I've got real differences on approach to how we win this election, and I'm going to press the hell out of this guy. ... Relief for the middle class, universal health care, etc.; I'm Ms. Blue Collar, and I'm going to press my fight, because he can't win without my being on the ticket.' "

Another major Democratic Party figure, who supports her for president, agreed: "It's not going to be a quiet exit. ... Obama has got a terrible situation. He marches to a different drummer. He won't want to take her on the ticket. But he might have to, even though the idea of Vice President Hillary with Bill in the background at the White House is not something -- especially after what [the Clintons] have thrown at him that he relishes. I believe she'll go for it."

However, several important Democrats aligned with Obama predicted that he -- and Michelle Obama -- will vigorously resist any Clinton effort to get on the ticket. Rather, Obama is more likely to try to convince Clinton to either stay in the Senate or accept another position in an Obama administration, should he win the presidency.

The line is from The Rocky Horror Picture Show's double entendre-loving audiences, but it has its application to Hillary Clinton's exit from the Democratic Primary race. Ben Smith at Politico runs through some of Hillary's possible primary parachutes:

1. Never Say Die: There's no rule that Clinton has to drop out just because she can't win.

2. Extract a Job: Clinton still has leverage...force Obama to offer her something to make it stop - a spot on the ticket, a Cabinet post...

3. Cash Out: ... press Obama for fundraising help to retire her mountain of debt, then campaign for him hard enough that nobody can blame her for his inevitable defeat.

4. Kicking and Screaming: Sometimes, it takes a silver-haired party figure to tell the candidate it's over.

5. Racial Meltdown: Defections from black supporters such as Rangel and Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (Ohio) would threaten Clinton with the mantle of racial division, anathema to her husband's legacy and career poison in American - and particularly Democratic - politics.

6. Unconditional surrender: ...win his gratitude, and that of his supporters, by withdrawing cleanly and quickly, and working hard for his election.

If I know anything at all about Hillary Clinton, the primary calculation involved here will be how best to use her exit as a lever to her political objectives. This is a rare opportunity for her to make what lemonade she can from her electoral lemons. With that in mind, let's take a look at what she can do, what she should do, and what she likely will do.

John McCain today is launching a climate change video entitled, "A Better Way." Although it does little by way of letting viewers know what McCain would do to fix the problem, it does refer to how "one extreme" thinks "high taxes, and crippling regulation" is the solution, while another "denies the problem even exists."

"I believe climate change is real," a casually-dressed McCain on a mountain says. "It's not just a greenhouse gas issue, it's a national security issue."

The ad comes as McCain travels to the Pacific Northwest to talk about the generally oft-neglected topic. In Portland today, he will deliver what his campaign is calling "a major speech" outlining his plans to combat the threat of global climate change and "re-establish America's environmental leadership in the world."

He's going to propose a domestic cap-and-trade system his campaign says will mobilize market forces to develop and commercialize alternatives to carbon-based fuels. Tomorrow, he will participate in a discussion in Seattle with environmentalists, conservationists and the business community on how to combat climate change.



After the jump, the new pro-Hillary video featuring the White House-scorned duo of Joe and Valerie Plame Wilson.

Over the weekend, Hillary Clinton's campaign confirmed that it is now $20 million dollars in debt. Some have speculated that any deal that lays the groundwork for her exit from the Democratic race will have Barack Obama picking up Clinton's trail of unpaid bills. While many Clinton supporters scoff at this notion, and cheer their candidate to soldier on until the convention in August, there may be a more compelling reason to settle up before then. Actually, make that 11 million reasons. From US News and World Report:

Experts disagree on whether or not Clinton will actually stick in the fight until the Democratic National Convention in August. But the date looms large for another reason--at least, if she hopes to recoup any of the million s she has sunk into the campaign. Thanks to a little-known provision in 2002's McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform bill, a campaign must repay the loan to a candidate before Election Day. In this case, that's the nominating convention. After the election has passed, a bankrupt campaign is limited to gathering just $250,000 from contributors, which means that modes sum is all it can give back to a candidate. In short, Clinton stands to lose $11,150,000. "If she wants to be repaid, she'd have to move on that between now and the national convention," says former Federal Election Commission chairman Michael Toner."

Each time the Clintons have dipped into their personal fortune to help fund the campaign, they've termed the infusion a "loan," which, one assumes, is meant to be re-paid. The irony that John McCain's legislation (so reviled by conservatives) might be the final nudge that pushes Clinton from the race is all a bit Twilight Zone. But the rub here is that if Clinton exits the race now, her fundraising opportunities go away while, baring an Obama bailout, the debt remains. That means she may opt to stay in, try to spend a tiny amount in the remaining contests, raise cash, and then quit at the last possible moment, right before the convention so as to avoid the campaign finance restrictions.

No word yet on how much of the $42.3 million Mitt Romney lent his own campaign that Mitt has bee able to recoup.

Good morning, and welcome again to Videos of the Week. The big story this week was, of course, the virtual coronation of Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee. We have a couple of clips related to the making of that sausage, plus a few morsels of John McCain, a couple of cool tricks, and a Mike Gravel chaser.

Before we get to those, I just want to quickly plug Political Machine reader Tom Fitzsimmons' satire work over at The Specious Report, and at Daily Kos. Drop in there, laugh it up, and leave him a good rating, won't you?

By popular demand, I am adding the Obama 59 state gaffe, right after the jump.

Leading off this week is a video from my buddy Cenk at The Young Turks. For reasons that will be obvious later, I'm going to tell you nothing about it.