Primaries

Welcome to Videos of the Week, and sorry for my absence these past several weeks. It is good to be back, even if it is during a slow-as-molasses news week.

Because it has been such a slow week, this will be a shorter than usual VOTW. For the same reason, our lead video this week is a compilation of Election 2008 web videos, put together by PoliticsTV.com.

I've been sympathetic to Huckabee during the nomination, but that's over now. All of those who were warning that Huckabee was a flim flam who would lead the GOP in the wrong direction, hear this loudly. You were absolutely right, and while McCain is another wrong direction, Huckabee would have been no better.

This all stems from this blog post at The Next Right detailing Huckabee standing up for Don Young, the pork king of Alaska (and sadly, a Republican). It concludes:

Huckabee's followers understand enough about fiscal / social conservative fusionism that you don't throw your weight behind an unelectable Republican whose "Bridge to Nowhere" branded the Congressional GOP as beyond redemption. And you don't do it by touting his ability to bring home highway funds!

I detected more than a little bit of anti-religious right bias in the opposition to Huckabee, but this goes to show that you don't need to distrust the religious light to conclude that Huckabee's no good. He doesn't understand conservative principles, he doesn't understand that the bridge to nowhere branded the 2004-2006 GOP as a bunch of corrupt pigs, and he is definitely not going to lead an effort to reform the GOP for the future. The faster we are rid of him, the better.

Tonight, at 9pm CST, Dr. Ron Pal will end his presidential campaign, according to a report by ABC News: (and as predicted by our reader, Jo)

Rep. Ron Paul's presidential campaign, a pugnacious, ideological crusade against big government and interventionist leanings in the Republican party, will officially end Thursday at a rally outside the Texas GOP's convention, ABC News has learned.

The new phase of the revolution officially begins with a speech tonight in Houston and a Web video to be posted on his site, officially ending Paul's presidential campaign and freeing up the more than $4.7 million in campaign cash for investment in a new advocacy group, The Campaign for Liberty.

What the hell am I supposed to do now?

Covering Ron Paul's campaign has been some of the best fun I've had here on The PM, and his supporters challenged me and made me a better writer. After the jump, some highlights of that coverage. If you come back at 9pm CST, 10 EDT, you'll see the speech live in the player below.
Watch live video from Ron Paul 2008 on Justin.tv

Doesn't it seem like this primary campaign began about the same time they replaced the pull-off tabs on Pepsi cans with the safety tabs we have now? Wasn't it around the same time that Shelley Hack made her debut as the fifth Charlie's Angel? Didn't the Fonz actually jump a shark in the middle of it?

But now, it is finally over. The general election has begun. Hillary Clinton has conceded, which means no more even remotely fun conference calls. The confetti that I collected from the floor of the Hillary Clinton celebration in Philadelphia has been duly delivered to its rightful owner. We have the Veepstakes to look forward to, and after that, a string of lopsided debates. The only real suspense now is the possible nature and effectiveness of the "October Surprise."

To help me laugh through my tears, MSNBC's Countdown put together a nifty compilation of video clips to summarize the 2008 Presidential Primaries.
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The same way I did, from Mark Impomeni, or at least somebody like him. From Politico:

But even when news reports circulated early Wednesday evening that Clinton would drop out of the race Friday, the initial reaction was muted.

"No comment," said an Obama aide.

The Clinton campaign had not yet made contact with the Obama campaign, another aide said outside an evening fundraiser in Manhattan.

AWK-ward!

My mom gets on my case if I don't call her when her geraniums are blooming, or whatever they do.

The fact that there was no contact between the camps on this says something, but not necessarily what it appears to.

10:17 pm ET: Obama's speaking and he just declared himself the Democratic nominee. Nobody cares about Montana anymore but just for the record, he won there. Looks like it'll be by about 5%. So that's it. Fifty states later and we can finally finally move onto the general election. Phew.

10:00 pm ET: Polls close in Montana. Guess what? McCain has won South Dakota. But Ron Paul nabbed a more-than-a-little impressive 14% of the vote. Can't wait to see what headaches the Paulites cause at the GOP convention.

9:40 pm ET: MSNBC and some others calling SD for Hillary. So far it looks like she'll win by about 10%. Terry McAulliffe just told NPR that Clinton is ending the campaign with "a gigantic head of steam." That's one way to spin a loss I guess.

Montana polls still open for another 20 minutes. No results out of there yet.

9:05 pm ET: Polls closed in South Dakota. Still no numbers, but exit polls suggest Clinton will perform well in SD. She was leading among white men and women (which make up most of the state) and among older people. Obama, not surprisingly, has the edge among young voters. Drudge is reporting that the Clinton camp expects a big win in the Mt. Rushmore State, possibly by as much as 25%.

Obama is expected to win Montana, but by what margin is still a guess.

8:20 pm ET: No numbers yet.

Pretty amazing that here at the culmination of the primary process, there are only TWO states that won't have a real impact on deciding who the Democratic nominee is. But it's only fitting that the primaries in those two final states come on the biggest day of the Dem election season thus far. That means South Dakota and Montana got the attention of the candidates up to the very end... and will still get the attention of the nation tonight.

The polls close in South Dakota at 9 PM ET. There are 15 delegates at stake there. In Montana, where there are 16 delegates up for grabs, the polls shut down at 10 ET.

Obama is favored to win in Montana but SD could go either way. Obviously he doesn't need either win at this point, but victories in both states sure would give him an emphatic finish.

Update: Clinton campaign official statement at the end of the story.

The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws committee has voted to seat the full delegations of Michigan and Florida, with each delegate receiving a half of a vote.

7:07 There are people chanting, "Denver, Denver!"

Harold Ickes voted for the Florida measure, but against the Michigan one.

They had to ask security to bar the door.

Ickes said that the Michigan decision "Hijacked" the votes of 600,000 people, and that the principle of fair representation of the will of the voters meant awarding delegates to "Uncommitted." He peppered his speech with phrases like "hijacking" and "you bet your ass."

Several of the speakers had testy interchanges with vocal spectators.

Harold Ickes has reserved the right to take the Michigan decision to the credentials committee, and people in the halls are still chanting, "Denver, Denver!" No word on whether they are fans of Gilligan or Uncle Jesse.

Ickes has a point, Uncommitted ran a really great campaign, has a solid platform, and is going to be ready on day one. All of those volunteers who canvassed tirelessly for Uncommitted are hanging their heads, but the candidate is not available for comment.

This has been a long day, and those who watched this process, listened to the speeches, have got to come away with the strong impression that everyone in that room had an honest stake in reaching a unified compromise, with one exception. By reserving the right to go to the credentials committee, Harold Ickes is reserving the right to make sure that the Democratic Party cannot field a candidate that is viewed as legitimate. The rest of them can just cross their fingers, or hold their breath, or pray. Who is the hijacker here?

The Clinton campaign sent out a press release yesterday, along with 16 pages of attachments, announcing that they had sent their best pitch to all of the superdelegates.

WHY HILLARY IS THE STRONGEST CANDIDATE

*In a letter and memo sent to superdelegates today, Hillary lays out the case for why she is the strongest candidate to put together a winning coalition and beat John McCain in the Fall.

I took a thorough look at the documents, which included a letter to the Supes, an 11 page presentation, and a map key. I have to say, this packet makes some good points, but none of them has a lot to do with selecting a nominee.

It also proves the maxim that, sometimes, less is more. The dual linchpins of this presentation are a pair of "Electoral College" maps (one by Karl Rove's consulting firm, the other relying on a Partridge-Family-bus-like patchwork of cherry-picked polls) that have about as much to do with electoral reality as Rain Man's "Serious Injuries notebook."

On Saturday, May 31, the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee will meet to decide what to do about Michigan and Florida. More accurately, they will meet to re-decide what to do with the two wildcat states who moved their primaries up, in defiance of the DNC, whom the DNC and all of the candidates agreed ahead of time would be stripped of their delegates.

The Clinton campaign has been lobbying hard to seat the two delegations, since they handily won both "beauty contest" primaries, as the only candidacy on the ballot in one, and a no-campaigning pledge in the other. Barack Obama supporters (and schoolyards full of 3rd graders) cried "Foul!" The rules committee is meeting to decide how best to make everyone angry.

A blogger at Daily Kos has interesting marching orders from inside the Obama campaign:

Emails from two sources (one of them our own inestimable slinkerwink) verify that the Obama campaign does not want protests on its behalf of the Democratic National Committee's May 31st Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting to decide the fate of Florida and Michigan.

Excerpt from the email:

I don't mean to rain on anyone's parade, but under direction from Chicago HQ we are being asked NOT to hold any events like this. For several political and media reasons, I have been asked to relay the message that only those Obama supporters who obtained tickets to sit inside the meeting should attend. No outside protests/rallies/gatherings, no matter how peaceful/positive/well-intentioned.

If you would like to be involved in the counter-event (voter registration in Northern VA) please let me know.

Is this smart politics, or the equivalent of putting up your hand and saying, "What-EVer?" And are we being deprived of the "Dueling Banjoes" of political protests?

With the Idaho Republican primary mere hours away, I thought I would be more nervous than I am now. I agreed to get a Ron Paul tattoo if the good Dr. were to win, outright, the starchy wonderland. Although Operation RonDemption showed early promise, it looks like my right arm is safe, and thousands of Paulites like this one, from Daily Dose, are headed for disappointment.

Let's fill those tattoo parlors with a Ron Paul Victory in Idaho!

I was inspired to create Operation: RonDemption by the relative success of Rush Limbaugh's Operation: Chaos. It stood to reason that Ron Paul supporters, united in common cause with Democrats who missed the Idaho caucuses, would blow away a bunch of Dittoheads and hand John McCain a defeat in Idaho.

Sometimes, it helps to visualize, so I had the scientists at Political Machine Laboratories put together this simulation, so you can see what the tattoo might look like.

The Texas Congressman has been scoring impressive results against presumptive nominee John McCain, most recently winning 15% of the vote in Oregon, but with low turnout due to a settled nomination, it's going to take a much more dramatic result to make this more than a footnote. Idaho's open primary is a rare opportunity for Paul boosters and Democrats to work together.

After an initial outburst of support from the Paul-o-sphere, the interest has been steady, but flat.