With the Democratic Convention fading from memory, the Republicans will take their turn next week here in St. Paul, Minnesota. The purpose of these conventions is to highlight differences between the parties, and the extent to which Republicans are going to contrast the Democrats' message coming out of Denver is evident in the convention stage that they have set up.

The Democrats' stage in Denver's Pepsi Arena was opulent. Huge video screens curved up to the ceiling behind a podium that could be raised and lowered all the way down to the stage floor. And that was only for the first three days of the convention. Sen. Obama's acceptance speech at Invesco Field was set on its own, even more grandiose stage. Greek columns and a curved faux-windowed colonnade formed the backdrop for a circular stage projecting out into the center of the stadium. Democrats were roundly criticized in the press for constructing a "temple" from which Obama would address the assembled masses. The visuals coming from the convention were stunning, but they may have come at the cost of Democrats appearing elitist.

By contrast, the Republican stage is a study in minimalism. It consists of a simple podium, only four feet above the convention floor, backed by a 50 ft. by 30 ft. video board. Asked about the contrast between the Republicans' set and the Democrats', Matt Burns, Director of Communications for the 2008 Republican National Convention, said that the simple design was not a deliberate attempt to contrast the Democrats. Burns said that the stage was designed to fit the personality of the party's nominee, Sen. John McCain.

"The stage reflects the humble nature of our nominee and puts him where he is most comfortable, close to the people."

Mr. Burns said that the stage is meant to evoke Sen. McCain's town hall meetings, which he has made a hallmark of his campaign, and denied that the Democrats' convention sets had any influence on the Republican design. But viewers of both conventions will not be able to help but notice the striking differences between the two parties' designs; and that alone may help influence opinions of their respective candidates.

Beginning about a week ago, there were four events that had the ability to reshape the presidential election of 2008. The Democratic VP, the Democratic convention, the Republican VP, and the Republican convention. And to add to the excitement, we came into these events essentially within the margin of error, with most polls showing Obama with about a 2-3 point lead.

Obama chooses Biden on August 24 (at 3am) - No detectable bounce. In fact according to Rasmussen, which has been highly accurate, Obama lost four points by choosing Biden.

Obama gives the speech of his life on August 28th - Too soon to tell, and the Palin announcement is going to muddy the waters, but we see a 4 point bump in Rasmussen on the 30th and that would include all of the convention plus the speech, and it should go higher, I think we can call the convention a 4-8 point bump for Obama. Remember the McCain blog trying to set expectations for a 10-15 point bounce. That was clearly crazy and was intended to allow them to claim victory with anything less.

McCain chooses Palin on August 29th. - Too soon to tell, but boy will that be interesting. My guess is that the polls might not move much but the internal numbers for Republicans excited about McCain will move sharply. More than the overall numbers. I predict that McCain will get something small.

McCain speech on September? - With Gustav in the Gulf, events are a little more fluid than McCain will like, but after this speech we will have eight weeks or so until the election, the major events will be over.

So far McCain has to be happy with how things have been going with Obama's major events. They blew the VP selection and are weathering the Obama speech. The next events are under his control and his campaign is hitting every time they are at bat.

Well it didn't do it for me, but then again it was clear that was not intended to. What I heard was a speech that Walter Mondale or Michael Dukakis would have been very comfortable delivering. The days of the centrist wing of the Democratic party, the triangulation, the DLC and the Clintons are clearly over.

Obama went on with universal health care, college education for everyone. The specter of AK-47's in cities, etc. Basically telling America that we can't make it unless we vote us some Democrats into office. What I heard was pure, unabashed liberalism. It's interesting in this year when there are a lot of disaffected conservatives, especially those of us with a libertarian bent, Obama offered nothing to us. Which leaves the door open to John McCain to gather both the center and rebuild his base on the right. Strategically, I think this is a mistake.

But a mistake that's easy to second guess. Going the full liberalism/progressive route has allowed him to build excitement to a fever pitch and fill a stadium with worshipful supporters. But will it be enough? My guess is that there is a large group of people that McCain plans on appealing to. Nixon called them the silent majority and he won huge twice with them.

On the stadium. It didn't turn into a Wellstone rally debacle, but it was well executed for what it was. The bad side, no balloons! and it will serve to underscore the narrative that he really thinks highly of himself. But on the other hand he was able to use this event to build a base of support in a swing state with 80,000 likely voters. So there are reasons to do it this way.

His oratory wasn't as soaring as I guess I expected, but that's probably mostly familiarity. We've heard it before. The goal of the speech tonight was to launch the campaign with what he was going to run on. And what he's going to run on is unabashed liberalism (progressivism if you like). And that may work this year, but usually it doesn't.

Oh and McCain does salute Obama on his night, but it's now about 13 hours before McCain reorients the media on his VP pick. But the ad is classy:

It's probably good that Biden started out with an introduction, since most of America doesn't know who he is. If pressed they might guess that he's a congressperson or senator of some sort. Which is hard on someone that who reportedly thinks as highly of themselves as Joe Biden does, I'm sure. Well he's here to rectify that. And by and large he did a good job. Those who have watched Biden over the years are not surprised that he is good at delivering a red-meat stem winder. He is good and as a down to the socks liberal has the added benefit of really believing what he is saying

Joe Biden's big goal that he must accomplish tonight is to reassure the convention-goers that he was the right guy for the VP pick and erase those feelings of regret that Hillary was not picked. And I think he did do that, much to Hillary's chagrin. Except that to this crowd of folks, who are completely over Hillary for now (for the most part) it was an easy to sell. They really wanted to believe that Biden was the right guy, and all he had to do was deliver some red meat and seal the deal on the VP selection.

This of course doesn't change my opinion that in the larger sense, Biden was politically a horrible pick. Among other things the speech he delivered while good oratorically, was chock full of things that Democrats have had a tough time traditionally selling to the American public, universal health care, equal pay for women, etc. But again he was speaking to the folks in the room.

Highlighting one more thing from the speech, Biden provided more rationale and motivation for an Obama vote than I've heard so far, and that's good. But he also nicely turned an Obama potential liability into a plus, saying that Obama could have done "anything" after Harvard and instead chose to go to the southside and work with the poor. Which again is a nice way of putting a positive spin on a largely blank resume, at least compared to McCain.

Another nice touch, Biden praised McCain and honored his courage, and got some applause on that note. And then he kind of ruined it by saying that we need more than a good soldier, we need a wise leader. Implying of course saying that Barack Obama was a wise leader and McCain was not. That's raising some hackles in the righty blogosphere.

On the whole, Biden did a good job, delivered a rationale and a nice set-up for Obama's speech tomorrow night. And then Obama comes out and delivers his own warm-up for his speech tomorrow night, which was a surprise, but the crowd loved it.

The big one is tomorrow. So far no bump in the polls, but we'll know soon.

As the Democratic National Convention begins its presidential nominating process with the traditional roll call of the states this afternoon in Denver, some supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton remain unconvinced that she wants them to support Sen. Barack Obama as the party's nominee. Mrs. Clinton met with her delegates earlier today and officially released them from voting for her on the convention floor.

But some say that they will cast their votes for Sen. Clinton anyhow. "I don't think she believed that her supporters are going to fall in line behind Obama," said Darragh Murphy, founder of the pro-Clinton group known as PUMA, which stands for Party Unity My A--. "Her request was tepid. "The only thing I know is that I won't vote for Obama."

That sentiment has caused a rift between the two main groups of Clinton supporters, PUMA, and 18 Million Voices. 18 Million Voices members are more open to supporting Sen. Obama, but one member said that Obama still had some work to do to fully win over the group.

"I feel that I'm going against her wishes, but I'm still waiting for Barack Obama to sell me, to give me a reason to want him in the presidency. We're still not convinced."

The roll call of the states almost didn't happen over concerns that a floor fight between Obama supporters and disgruntled Clinton supporters might cause a show of disunity at the convention. But Sen. Clinton's speech appears not to have gone as far as Democratic convention organizers hoped in helping to rally the party around Sen. Obama. The roll call will come off without a hitch and Sen. Obama will be nominated. But it is unclear whether Clinton supporters leaving Denver will feel that their candidate received proper treatment; and whether Obama supporters can count on Clinton supporters for help on the campaign trail.

McCain hits the infamous 3AM ad and the devastating quote on the eve of Hillary's big night:

Hmmm... I wonder if McCain is going to hit the experience theme a little hard this season. Even if it wasn't a great quote for him from Clinton, it's just too juicy to pass up. As noted yesterday, HRC is united with Barack Obama, but then she has to be to clear her way. Obviously she personally benefits of Obama goes down in flames this year, all ready for the "I told ya" tour of 2011, 2012. But in order for that to happen, there must be no fingerprints on the knife.

But the truth is that both Biden, Clinton and a host of other Democrats have played the experience card already and it's too late to call it back. And there's plenty of material in this vein that McCain can use. The Democrats solace is that they can mine all the quotes of conservatives in the GOP hitting McCain and play it during his convention.

Michelle Obama just gave a good, not a great, speech introducing her husband. As a comparison I went back and reviewed the Teresa Kerry speech in 2004. Ugh. Teresa couldn't quite get around the sense that she wasn't one of us and that all this was just a little beneath her.

In that sense, I'm really wondering if its such a good idea to put Cindy McCain out there, as her upbringing has a lot more in common with Teresa than Michelle.

By contrast, Michelle did fine, but that's not a high bar. The bar I usually set for these types of things is whether it moves the needle one way or the other. Initial sense: Not much needle movement here. Unfortunately for Obama, the most talked about part of the speech will be the mention of HIllary and her 18 million votes as "cracks against the glass ceiling inspiring women to dream". ...And thanks to your husband, Hillary's dream was shattered. Heh. But the shout out was nice anyway, I'm sure.

Candidate wife speeches are really quite limited in what can be done, so criticism must be understood in context. Limited attacks, no setting of new policy, introduce your husband as wonderful. In that regard Michelle punched above weight, but it won't move the polls. This is just a set, someone else will have to smash. (sorry for the volleyball ref, Olympics on the brain)

The Obamas did deploy one weapon that the McCain's cannot, cuteness. The daughters with dad on the big screen was a nice touch. Cuteness they got. Tomorrow night is Hillary Clinton. Now that will be interesting.

The Democratic National Convention may be on the verge of splintering even before it officially gets underway, if a report in today's Washington Post turns out to be accurate. The Post's The Trail blog reports that top advisers to Sen. Hillary Clinton will not be in attendance when Sen. Barack Obama gives his nomination acceptance speech at Invesco Field in Denver on Thursday. The Clinton entourage plans to leave town entirely on Wednesday night, after former President Bill Clinton gives his convention speech. The post lists former Democratic National Committee Chairman and Clinton Campaign Chairman Terry McAuliff as one of those who will forgo the Obama speech, along with prominent Clinton booster Steve Rattner.

One former Clinton campaign operative who now helps the Obama campaign, Robert Zimmerman, told the Post that the Democratic convention is bigger than the personalities involved in the internecine rivalry between the Clinton and Obama camps.

"This convention provides a very important opportunity for the Obama campaign to bond with the constituencies that supported Hillary Clinton. It's not about Barack or Hillary. It's about bringing in the people here who voted for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Senator Obama and Senator Biden are, without question, qualified to do that."

But if the report is accurate, it indicates that there are still very strong tensions between the Clinton and Obama campaigns. Those tensions could filter down to rank and file voters and perhaps prevent Sen. Obama from solidfying his base of support within his own party. On the eve of the convention, polls show that one in four Clinton supporters still do not plan to vote for Sen. Obama in the fall. The convention is meant in large part to correct that. However, Sen. Obama will have to do it without the help of many of Sen. Clinton's most seasoned political backers.

I saw the reports earlier this morning, and I thought it was disinformation. There's no way that the Republicans could be lucky enough to have Obama choose Biden... right? Wrong, Obama has chosen Biden. There are four events that have the potential of changing the structure of the campaign in the next few weeks, two VP selection events and two convention events. Two of these events are under Obama's control and he just blew one of them.

My fellow PMers are on top of things, but let me especially highlight the quick response McCain ad thrown up by Greg, which is priceless. Mark is correct in saying that this is the best possible choice... for Republicans.

In summary:

Sen. John McCain's campaign said yesterday that Sen. McCain will announce his running mate selection on Friday, August 29th, the morning after Sen. Barack Obama gives his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. The date was chosen specifically to try and deaden the impact of Obama's speech. McCain is counting on his selection commanding the news cycle for the weekend leading into the start of the Republican National Convention on Sept. 1st, in Minneapolis.

The Politico reports that McCain campaign sources are planning for a rally of over 10,000 people in Dayton, Ohio, where the announcement is expected to be made. The location is leading to some speculation about who the pick will be. Former Congressman Rob Portman is an Ohio native and is considered by many to be a front-runner for the selection. Another Ohio native, former Congressman John Kasich, is considered a dark horse for the nomination. But sources in the McCain campaign confess to having no idea who McCain will ultimately select.

The strategy of making the selection public immediately after Obama's nomination is designed to give the pick them maximum possible impact. Republicans, as the party in power in the White House, have the advantage of having their convention come last. That gives them an opportunity to try and trump the spectacle that Democrats will put on the preceding week. With only three days between the end of the Democratic convention and the start of the Republican gathering, the McCain campaign can step on Obama's post-convention bounce while building up a head of steam for the following week.