With Sen. Barack Obama pulling ahead in the national polls, talk has begun to center on the length of his coat tails if he does manage to hold on and win the presidency less than a month from now. Of particular interest is the Senate, where a feisty Republican minority has been able to frustrate Democrats' plans again and again by blocking legislation with filibusters, just as Democrats did when they were in the minority between 2002 and 2006. Democrats have high hopes that they will be able to capture a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats with gains in this year's election. Together with an Obama victory and expected gains in the House, that would give Democrats virtually unchecked power to enact their agenda.

One of the first items on Democrats' list is legislation to pay back a key constituency, organized labor, for its loyalty and campaign contributions. Unions are expected to spend as much as $300 million dollars to elect Democrats this year, and Democrats, including Sen. Obama are eager to repay them with legislation. The bill in question is the rather inappropriately named Employee Free Choice Act, and it aims to increase union membership nationwide by changing the way employees elect join unions.

Under current law in most states, employees vote in secret ballot elections for union representation or no union representation. But under a bill co-sponsored by Sen. Obama, and backed by Congressional Democrats, the secret ballots would be done away with in favor of employee signatures on sign up cards. The so-called "card check" provision would undo the process of secret election ballots. Instead of a free and fair election, a simple majority of employee signatures would obligate employers to allow worker to organize and bargain collectively. That would potentially expose unwilling employees to intimidation by union organizers and fellow employees. The bill would almost certainly increase union membership, which has fallen to roughly 12% of the American workforce; and would fatten the wallets of union bosses with new membership dollars that they would continue to lavish on Democrat election campaigns. It would be a quid pro quo potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars to both labor and the Democratic Party.

Sen. Obama says that he wants to change politics-as-usual in Washington. But his efforts on behalf of organized labor and the Employee Free Choice Act are quintessentially the stuff of typical Washington wheeling and dealing. And Democrats are growing confident that they will win the seats necessary to begin taking bids on bills for favorite interest groups. Labor will not be the last Democratic constituency to win big favors from a one-party ruled federal government. Historically, the American people have shown an aversion to handing control of Congress and the White House to the same party. Union bosses and Democrats are betting that this year will be different.

Republican Vice-Presidential nominee, Gov. Sarah Palin, scored an upset victory over Democrat Sen. Joe Biden in the Vice-Presidential debate held tonight at Washington University in St. Louis, MO. Palin has been derided in the media and by Democrats almost since the moment she was selected by Sen. John McCain as an unprepared novice. Palin herself has contributed to that impression with a series of halting performances in broadcast news interviews. But tonight, on the biggest stage of her career and with the most riding on a good performance, Palin came through, scoring clear win over a 36-year Senator.

Judging this debate requires a different analytical metric than the presidential contests. First, the fact the Palin is so new to the national stage gave her an advantage. She did not have to clear the high knowledge hurdle that Biden did. Biden's clearly deeper knowledge worked against him in this debate. He scored no points for knowing more than Palin, precisely because he has been in Washington far longer. Second, the media's treatment of Palin, especially recently, gave her an advantage over Biden by lowering the overall expectations for her. But even without those advantages, Plain turned in the stronger, more energetic, more positive performance. She was knowledgeable on issues from foreign policy to global warming, demonstrating a command of the facts and an unwillingness to go along with the conventional wisdom.

For his part, Biden performed well. His main goals of the evening were to avoid making any serious mistakes, defend Barack Obama's policies, and demonstrate a level of competency that was greater than Palin. He did a good job with the first two. But Palin came right at Biden from the opening question, challenged him on his past unflattering statements about Obama, refused to let Biden's assertions about McCain's record go unanswered, and generally more than held her own with Biden on every issue. She appeared every bit the worthy adversary for Biden and just as able to handle the duties of the office of vice-president.

Just as importantly, Palin was able to connect with the audience. She spoke with a warm and likable demeanor. She looked directly into the camera, and directly at her opponent, and gave a closing statement that was both forceful and positive. Palin is not of Washington, and she doesn't pretend to be. She speaks with an air of the every-woman. She presents herself as someone equally at ease talking about the kids or about the vagaries of oil and gas development. She is a real person. Biden is likely all of those things as well. But like most career politicians, he does not have that quality of genuineness that connects with voters on a personal level. It was in establishing that connection that Palin scored her biggest points of the night.

Campaigning today in Westminster, Colorado, Sen. Barack Obama effectively abandoned his criticism of rival Sen. John McCain over the fundamentals of the economy. Obama had been hitting McCain hard for his statement from two weeks ago that the "fundamentals of our economy are strong." But today, in remarks about the current financial crisis, Obama agreed with McCain, saying, "After this immediate problem, we've got the long-term fundamentals to really make sure this economy grows."



Besides canceling out his campaign message, the remarks were ill-timed, coming as they did on a day when the House failed to pass a financial markets bailout, and the Dow Jones average dropped nearly 700 points. But that wasn't the only gaffe in Sen. Obama's statement today.

Earlier in the same speech, Obama criticized McCain for the fundamentals comment, saying that the remark showed McCain, "just doesn't get it." It appears Sen. Obama was against the fundamentals of the economy before he was for them. And the prepared remarks Obama was set to deliver initially praised the House for passing the bailout plan, calling it, "the best and only way to prevent an economic catastrophe." That line was hastily scratched, after 95 Democrats in the House voted against the bill.

Media reports are emerging from sources inside the White House meeting between the Administration and Congressional leaders of both parties. Contrary to the narrative Democrats are pushing, that Sen. John McCain's presence at the negotiations slowed the process down, reports are that it was Sen. Barack Obama and the Democratic leadership that interjected partisan politics into the negotiations over a financial bailout of Wall Street. Obama, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) conspired with allies inside the Treasury Department to ambush minority Republicans at the meeting, causing the talks to devolve into a partisan shouting match.

According to a source in the Obama campaign, Sen. Obama was provided with advance notice of an alternative financial rescue package being crafted by House Republicans through a campaign fundraiser and current employee of Goldman Sachs, Treasure Secretary Hank Paulson's former employer. Obama was also made privy to Secretary Paulson's concerns about the Republican plan. Republicans no doubt intended to present the plan at the White House meeting, which was billed as a negotiation. But Democrats opened their presentation by turning the floor over to Sen. Obama, who proceeded to attack the Republicans at the table using Paulson's notes on the Republican plan, foreclosing on any possibility of constructive negotiations being conducted.

Sen. McCain, on the other hand, did not take a high profile role at the White House meeting. He did not take a position on either the Administration's proposal, or the House Republicans' alternative. Rather, he listened to all sides, and spent the remainder of the evening in shuttle diplomacy between House and Senate Republicans, searching for a way to find common ground in their positions.

Democrats have been busy criticizing Sen. McCain's role in the negotiations today, with Sen. Harry Reid saying that there was an agreement, "until you know who came to town." But that statement is patently false. There was no agreement yesterday that included House Republicans, as the Obama campaign and Sen. Reid claim. The Republican present at the meetings prior to Sen. McCain's arrival, Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL) said at the time that he was not authorized to agree to anything on behalf of the House GOP. And since Speaker Pelosi has stated that she will not bring a bailout bill to the floor without protecting her flank with Republican support, no deal was possible.

Democrats and the Obama campaign are trying to spin the failure to reach an agreement last night on Sen. McCain, and at the same time trying to accuse McCain of bringing presidential politics to the negotiating table. But that spin does not match the reality of what happened in the White House Cabinet Room last night. There is no more nakedly political act than taking action to cause a breakdown of negotiations, as Sen. Obama did in concert with Democratic leaders and Secretary Paulson, and then blaming the other side for the consequences.

For the third consecutive day, the Obama campaign has been called out for distorting Sen. John McCain's position on an issue for political gain. Earlier this week, Factcheck.org called Sen. Obama's claim that McCain's support for private accounts within Social Security would have cost current retirees their savings, "untrue." McClatchy newspapers called Sen. Obama's attempt to tie McCain's historic support for deregulation to the financial turmoil on Wall Street, "wrong." Now, Factcheck.org returns to call Sen. Obama's most recent campaign advertisement on the Wall Street situation, "misleading."

The ad, titled, "Article," takes a partial quote from a piece Sen. McCain wrote for the current issue of Contentions magazine, and according to Factcheck.org, "twists" McCain's words out of context. The ad mentions one phrase from the article and applies it to the health care issue, attempting to tie McCain's health care policy to the financial turmoil on Wall Street. "We've seen what Bush-McCain policies have done to our economy. Now John McCain wants to do the same to our health care. McCain just published an article praising Wall Street deregulation. Said he'd reduce oversight of the health insurance industry, too. Just 'as we have done over the last decade in banking.'"

Factcheck points out that the full quotation from McCain's piece makes it clear that he was speaking about letting consumers purchase health insurance across state lines, a move that would certainly open up competition in the market, with the likely result of lowering costs.

"I would also allow individuals to choose to purchase health insurance across state lines, when they can find more affordable and attractive products elsewhere that they prefer. Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation. Consumer-friendly insurance policies will be more available and affordable when there is greater competition among insurers on a level playing field. You should be able to buy your insurance from any willing provider-the state bureaucracies are no better than national ones. Nationwide insurance markets that ensure broad and vigorous competition will wring out excess costs, overhead, and bloated executive compensation."

The McCain campaign responded to the Obama ad by noting that the banking deregulation that McCain was referring to in the article was a 1995 law that allowed customers to use ATMs nationwide and had nothing to to with the current market troubles. "If Barack Obama thinks that today's financial troubles were caused by policies which allowed Americans to use an ATM anywhere in this country, then it is better that he continue to be silent about solutions to the crisis on Wall Street."

Sources in the House of Representatives are reporting that House Democrats are set to allow the Congressional ban on offshore drilling expire at the end of the month when the fiscal year ends. If the report turns out to be accurate, it would represent an epic political victory for Republicans and underscore just how seriously the American people's demand for increased development of American energy sources shook Democrats' expectations for the fall elections.

A House staffer said in an e-mail that House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (D-WI) is telling reporters that Democrats on the committee are quietly preparing to drop language extending the ban from a continuing resolution soon to be passed. That resolution will fund government operations until separate appropriations bills can be passed after the election. The Congressional ban on offshore drilling is in truth a moratorium on funding for the processing of new drilling leases. Congress has annually renewed the moratorium every year since it first passed the funding ban in 1981. But pressure from minority Republicans and polls showing overwhelming majorities of the American people supporting increased drilling in the face of high oil and gasoline prices appear to have won the argument.

House Republicans have led the fight for increased domestic energy production, spending the August recess holed up in a darkened House chamber holding protest sessions of Congress designed to pressure vacationing Democrats to come back to Washington to vote on drilling legislation. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who once vowed never to allow a vote on drilling, nevertheless acquiesced somewhat when she allowed the chamber to vote on a limited drilling package last week. Republicans were not satisfied with the passage of that bill, and there were indications that the House drilling bill would not pass the Senate. Continued Republican pressure and widespread ridicule of the Democrats' energy bill in the press contributed to the decision to let the drilling ban die quietly.

If the report is accurate, Republican Congressional candidates and Sen. John McCain stand to benefit from successfully forcing Congress to bend to the will of the American people. McCain has made a call for increased drilling and American production a centerpiece of his presidential campaign. Democrats will attempt to take some credit for not standing in the way of the people's will by letting the ban die. But the energy issue has been owned by Republicans for the better part of the year. Republicans hope that the credit for it materializes at the polls in November.

A new Quinnipiac University poll conducted in New Jersey shows the race for president in New Jersey is tightening. Sen. John McCain now trails Sen. Barack Obama in New Jersey by 45-48 percent, making the race a virtual tie when the poll's 2.8% margin of error is factored in. The result represents a seven point swing toward McCain, who trailed Obama by ten percentage points in an August poll from Quinnipiac. The Real Clear Politics average for the state shows Obama leading by about 6 points, but two of the last four poll results have the race within three.

New Jersey has been trending Republican in presidential elections recently. Although the state has not gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, when it voted for George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush lost the state by only 7 points in 2004, after losing by nearly 16 percent in 2000. The McCain campaign believes that it can narrow that gap even further, if not win the state outright, this time. McCain has made a fund raising swing through the state, and will likely utilize former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani heavily in New Jersey.

Many Republicans remain skeptical that McCain can beat the Democratic machine in New Jersey, however, and see the recent poll result as more of a resources allocation trap for Sen. Obama. New Jersey is a very expensive state in which to advertise. It is devoid of media markets of its own, meaning that candidates have to buy time in the New York and Philadelphia markets. Republicans hope that close results in recent polling will force Sen Obama to spend precious campaign dollars in New Jersey, to shore up territory that he should have locked down. If the polling trend continues, McCain may decide that the potential to steal away New Jersey's 15 electoral votes from Obama is worth some advertising dollars of his own.

Sen. Barack Obama has turned down a request from the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee to help Democrats increase their majority in the Senate in the fall elections. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) asked Obama to share some of the money he has raised for the presidential campaign with Democratic Senate candidates in states with closely contested races. But Obama, who decided in the spring to forgo public financing of his presidential bid, becoming the first candidate to do so, cannot afford to let go of any of his campaign's resources. This is especially true now that he trails Sen. John McCain in national polling and will need to advertise heavily to try and catch up.

Earlier this week, the Obama campaign announced that it raised $66 million in the month of August. That figure was hailed as a record for a single month in many media accounts. But left out of the analysis is the amount of money that Obama had to spend to raise that cash, known as the burn rate. At the end of July, the campaign reported having cash-on-hand of $66 million. Add in the $66 million the campaign raised in August, and the campaign would have $132 million available if it spent nothing. But the Obama campaign reported having $77 million in the bank at the end of August, meaning that it spent $55 million during that time frame. In other words, the campaign spent 83% of what it raised in August, netting only $11 million of that record total.

The McCain campaign predicted in a strategy memo in July that Sen. Obama would have to raise $200 million, $100 million in each of the two months of the general election, to keep pace with Republicans. Obama's $66 million in August falls well short of that mark, creating a dilemma not only for Obama, but for Democrats nationally. The presidential candidate usually devotes at least some of his time on the campaign trail to stumping for House and Senate candidates in close races. But Obama's private financing decision forces him to spend almost all of his fund raising time on his own campaign, decreasing opportunities for him to get his message out in swing states, and decreasing the chances of significant gains for Democrats in House and Senate races.

Appearing on This Week with George Stephanopolous today, prominent Obama supporter Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) said that Americans should be "uncomfortable" with Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as Sen. John McCain's Vice-President because of McCain's advanced age and history of cancer. McCaskill was answering a question about Palin's experience when she veered into an attack on McCain's past health issues and age.

"[I am] uncomfortable with anyone, regardless of gender, that is going to be vice president to one of the oldest presidents we've ever had that has never met a world leader.

I think what we're talking about is a reality. Other people talk about his melanoma. We're talking about a reality here that we have to face. This is someone who's going to be one heartbeat away from the presidency. All of us know it. I just think that it's the facts, George, and that's something that we need to start focusing on, are the facts, instead of distortions and lies."

McCain released a complete set of his medical records earlier this year. The 1,200 pages of records, made available to a group of reporters, show McCain to be in good health for a man his age and declare him to be cancer-free. McCain's personal physician, internist Dr. John Eckstein of the Mayo Clinic in Phoenix, AZ, said that McCain was fit for the office of president. "While it is impossible to predict any person's future health, today I can find no medical reason or problems that would preclude Senator McCain from fulfilling all the duties and obligations of President of the United States." By contrast, Sen. Obama has not released his complete medical history. Instead, he released a one-page, 276 word summary of his medical history in which his personal physician proclaimed him to be in "excellent health."

McCaskill's comments come at the conclusion of a weekend which saw the Obama campaign ramp up both its attacks on McCain and the personal nature of the rhetoric it employs. The Obama campaign released a television commercial on Friday that takes McCain to task as being "out of touch" for, among other things, not using e-mail. McCain finds it very painful and difficult to use a computer keyboard due to the injuries he suffered as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam, and usually has others including staffers and his wife, Cindy McCain, do his typing for him. The Obama campaign clearly did not do its research in preparing this round of attacks. McCain's physical limitations with typing have been part of the public record for at least eight years.

In its zeal to get tough on Sen. John McCain, who has taken the lead in the presidential race, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign released a television ad today, titled "Still," making fun of Sen. McCain for being old fashioned. In the ad, the Obama campaign says that McCain hasn't changed much since he went to Congress in 1982, to make the case that McCain's campaign does not represent change. But the campaign crossed a line when it ridiculed McCain because he "can't send an e-mail," and unwittingly embroiled itself in another controversy that will throw the campaign off message. The charge is true, McCain cannot send e-mails. But the reason, which the Obama campaign clearly did not take the time to investigate, is that because of his Vietnam War injuries, suffered at the hands of his tortuous North Vietnamese captors, Sen. McCain cannot type on a keyboard.

The Boston Globe reported the details in an article first published in March 2000.

McCain gets emotional at the mention of military families needing food stamps or veterans lacking health care. The outrage comes from inside: McCain's severe war injuries prevent him from combing his hair, typing on a keyboard, or tying his shoes. Friends marvel at McCain's encyclopedic knowledge of sports. He's an avid fan - Ted Williams is his hero - but he can't raise his arm above his shoulder to throw a baseball.

After Vietnam, McCain had Ann Lawrence, a physical therapist, help him regain flexibility in his leg, which had been frozen in an extended position by a shattered knee. It was the only way he could hope to resume his career as a Navy flier, but Lawrence said the treatment, taken twice a week for six months, was excruciatingly painful.

The Obama campaign has been getting increasingly sloppy as McCain and running mate Gov. Sarah Palin have passed them by in the polls. Last week the campaign wasted two days defending itself after Sen. Obama derisively referred to the selection of Gov. Palin as "putting lipstick on a pig." Now comes this television ad, which is so offensive it has to have been an oversight.

Careless remarks from the candidate and a fumbling campaign staff are both signs of a desperate campaign. There is good reason for desperation in the Obama campaign. McCain leads the Real Clear Politics average of polls by 2.5 percentage points and has led in eight of the last ten polls taken. But the Obama campaign will never get back on its feet if it keeps shooting itself in them. This latest scandal will keep the campaign on the canvas well through the weekend.