Posts with tag Indiana

Citizenship Proof Next Up in Voter ID Battle

By Mark Impomeni

May 12th 2008 7:30PM

Filed Under: Democrats, Republicans, 2008 President, Ballot Measures

In the wake of the Supreme Court's approval of an Indiana law requiring voters to present a state-issued photo identification card at the polls, voting security activists are seeking to take the argument over voter ID one step further, just in time for the presidential election. Missouri lawmakers plan to vote on an amendment to the state constitution that would require voters to show proof of citizenship when registering to vote. The amendment would tighten the proofs required for registration in the state. The Missouri Constitution already requires that voters be citizens, but currently, Missourians can show a utility bill as proof of residency and are not required to provide a birth certificate to register to vote.

Nineteen other states are also considering similar measures, but only Missouri's stands to have an impact on the November elections. The amendment, if passed by the legislature, could go before the voters for ratification on the August primary election ballot in the state. If passed into law, it would be in effect for the presidential and congressional elections in the fall. Supporters of the bill say that it is necessary to prevent illegal aliens from voting while detractors say that the bill would do more harm than good by disenfranchising poor and elderly voters. Those arguments were made against the Indiana law at the Supreme Court and were soundly rejected.

> Read the Full Post

Hillary Support Crashing

By Dave

May 9th 2008 7:44AM

Filed Under: Hillary Clinton, 2008 President, Fundraising

As expected following her blowout in NC and squeaker in IN:

The campaign is clearly running low on cash, although advisers would not say how much money - or how little - Mrs. Clinton currently has. The campaign had started April with over $10 million in unpaid debts, and Mrs. Clinton was vastly outspent by Senator Barack Obama in North Carolina and Indiana.

...

Mrs. Clinton had been increasingly relying on Internet donations this spring from new and small-amount contributors; the day after she won the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, the campaign brought in a record $10 million online. But Hassan Nemazee, one of Mrs. Clinton's national finance chairmen, put the amount she collected online in the 24 hours after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries at only "$1 million-plus."

...

Still, other top fund-raisers working for Mrs. Clinton said that enthusiasm among donors had fallen sharply and that they had little confidence there would be a financial turnaround. They said that some donors had questioned why they should give more money when another set of numbers - the calculus to win enough delegates for the nomination - seemed so against Mrs. Clinton at this point.

The one bright spot for Hillary is that the next two primaries are in extremely friendly Clinton territory. Check the map.

> Read the Full Post

Hot Seat: Is Obama the Nominee?

By Coates Bateman

May 8th 2008 3:14PM

Filed Under: Hot Seat

Hot Seat: Did Rush Tilt Indiana?

By Coates Bateman

May 8th 2008 7:18AM

Filed Under: Hot Seat

Limbaugh Effect Gives Hillary Indiana?

As I reported here last week, Rush Limbaugh has instituted something called "Operation Chaos," wherein he urges Dittoheads (a pet name Limbaugh uses for his fans) to vote for Hillary Clinton in open Democratic Primaries in order to prolong the party's nominating process. Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton sent this out last night via email:
According to the latest exit polling data, 17% of voters in the Indiana primary today said they would vote for John McCain in a Clinton/McCain matchup.

41% of that number is constituted by people who voted Clinton in the primary but also indicated they will vote for McCain in the general election.

That comes out to just under 7% of the primary electorate the number that may be attributed to a "Limbaugh Effect."
I checked it with a calculator and everything. On today's Obama campaign conference call, Senator John Kerry brought it up, too:
If it hadn't been for republicans taking democratic ballots, he likely would have won Indiana. Rush Limbaugh was tampering with the primary and the GOP has clearly delcared that they want Hillary Clinton as a candidate.
With only a 2 point margin in Indiana, it makes sense for the Obama campaign to point this out, but it begs the question of whether or not they are legitimizing Limbaugh's tactic. I contacted both campaigns for this story, but, as yet, have not received a response.

McGovern Goes Obama, Tells Hillary to Quit

The first big superdelegate name to declare in the wake of Hillary Clinton's disappointing showing last night. Get ready. The flood is coming. Barack Obama heads to Washington D.C. tomorrow to talk to uncommitted superdelegates.

No doubt there are more than a few supers who'd like Hillary to make their decision a moot point. Geroge McGovern, the former Senator from South Dakota, as well as a former Hillary supporter and friend of the Clintons, doesn't appear to be content to wait.

McGovern had previously endorsed Clinton, so that means a loss in the superdelegate column for Hillary, and a pick-up for Obama. The message is pretty clear.

An e-mail from my colleague Liza Porteus Viana details McGovern's call-in appearance on MSNBC:

Not sure if you heard McGovern,

"I think the mathematics indicate Senator Obama is probably going to be the nominee. I have no regrets about Senator Clinton... but I think the time has come for democrats to unite and to get ready for a tough race this fall against Senator McCain. And that's why I'm hopeful that Senator Clinton will see fit fairly soon..."

He talked about his conversation with Bill Clinton, during which he announced his intention. Bill "of course wishes I had stayed with HIllary." But "we didn't have one single angry word." Bill did not admit Hillary's chances are next to impossible. "He recognizes it's a tough race but he didn't express any of those views."

Thanks Liza!

Update: Clinton gets a super of her own, post Indiana./N.C.

The Numbers After Last Night



Good morning, bean counters! Yesterday, we examined the numbers heading in to last night's primaries. Today, here's where we stand.

Barack Obama increased his Pledged Delegate lead by 12, and now has a healthy 166 delegate cushion.

Superdelegates remain unchanged for the moment, but look for that number to rise in Obama's favor throughout the coming days.

Overall, Obama's edge over Hillary Clinton is roughly 150 delegates. Yesterday that number was 138.

There are now just 217 pledged delegates up for grabs for the 6 remaining contests. In fact, for the first time in the race, there are now more undecided superdelegates than there are unallocated pledged delegates.

In terms of the popular vote, a metric used to try and woo superdelegates, Obama nearly erased Clinton's gains in Pennsylvania. With 99% of precincts reporting, he won North Carolina by 232,775 votes while Clinton won Indiana by 22,412. That's a 210,363 net vote gain for Obama. He now leads Clinton by 2.2 million votes. Even if you factor in Florida, Obama still leads by 1.2 million votes.

Today's dispassionate math problem is pretty simple:

Given the numbers, is the Democratic race effectively over?

Gut Check Time for Hillary

By Dave

May 7th 2008 7:56AM

Filed Under: Hillary Clinton, Primaries, 2008 President

Over or not over? I'm going to say... not over, but by any rights it should be. Final count in IN shows a Clinton victory, barely. And of course the dreadful drubbing she took in Indiana. Which means that Obama beat the line. According to the analysis by Jay Cost, Clinton did as well in IN as she did in OH with her constituent groups, but Obama has solidified his hold on the black vote and college educated whites.


Theres good news, but mostly bad news in there for Hillary. She has an argument that she can make that no Democrat can win on the strength only of the black vote and suburban college educated liberals, but that means the Democratic party would have to disenfranchise the driving force of their liberal base along with their most solid minority group. I can't imagine, even in the most brass knuckle politics environment, that scenario playing out. I think she's done. Whether she wants to accept it or not is another question.


One reason she may not accept it is that two very friendly Clinton states are coming up, WV and KY, both with heavy Appalachian contingents. She should blow out Obama here and if she does, she can make the electability argument again, although most electoral paths to victory for Democrats do not include Kentucky.


Let the rumor mongering begin. At 2am a report went out on ABC that she had cancelled all events and cleared her schedule, but as of this morning it appears a full campaign schedule is still in place.

Obama Declares Victory

I watched Obama give the speech of his political life Tuesday night, full of soaring platitudes. He's so good at the speechifying, I shudder to think of McCain (or Hillary) getting within an order of magnitude of his raw talent in the matter.


Maybe it was just pent up frustration, because I'm sure he's been wanting to give that speech ever since Super Tuesday, but unfortunately Hillary kept. On. Winning. Even after it was supposed to be long over. But tonight, with an overwhelming victory in North Carolina (nearly 16 points at this point) and even a chance at winning Indiana (a few points down and closing fast), he finally has the opportunity to give the big general election speech.


Key phrase: "This has been one of the longest campaigns in Democratic primary history." Note the use of the words "has been." As in, it's over now. Where he goes from here is easy, he can simply assume the mantle of the winner. Be gracious in victory, and let the chips fall. Most Democrats, it now seems clear, while they may be nervous about his chances, their hearts really are with him, and they really do not like Hillary. I now expect a full stampede of superdelegates, making this a fait accompli. I do not expect the Democratic leadership to risk outrage in the ranks in order to reinstall Hillary Clinton. He didn't collapse in the face of the Wright scandal. He's not John Kerry (at least in the speech making) and so, he's good enough to be the front man.


For Hillary it's gut check time, but I'll save that for another post.

Indiana Results Live Thread: Cliffhanger!

12:25 a.m. Signing off. The tone is sounding more ominous for Hillary Clinton as her lead diminishes. NBC's Tim Russert said "we all know" who the Democratic nominee is going to be - Barack Obama. "It's very much like being on life support," he said, referring to reports that Clinton will have to loan her campaign more money when the writing is on the wall that it's time to pack it in. She's canceled her morning appearances.

"The only way she can win this thing is if something terrible happens to Obama or something miraculous for her," said Mort Kondracke on FOX News Channel.

Clinton has 51%, Obama has 49% with 92% of the precincts reporting. It's going to be a cliffhanger. Many absentee votes likely won't be counted until tomorrow. I can't stay awake until then. I do have some day jobs I have to get out of bed for in the morning. Thanks for reading.

11:50 p.m. Clinton is now only ahead of Obama by about 20,000 votes as results from Lake County begin to come in. Everyone's wondering what the heck is taking so long. Can Obama win?

11:40 p.m. More than 200,000 ballots from 12% of the precincts are still uncounted. Clinton still has a 4 percentage point lead. Not only is that lead not hugely decisive, but the 14% point differential Obama won by in North Carolina pretty much erases any gains Clinton made in Pennsylvania.

MSNBC's Chuck Todd says Clinton's margin of victory in Indiana could be, at most, 10,000 votes. That means Obama will still have at least 160 more pledged delegates, and a 700,000 popular vote lead, not counting Florida. If Florida and Michigan are counted in Clinton's favor, Obama will still be ahead in the popular vote.

There are rumors Obama's camp is having informal talks about who to put on the ticket in the vice president slot.

10: 41 p.m. Clinton speaks as Indiana is still too close to call for most. "Not too long ago, my opponent made a prediction," she says. "He said I would probably win Pennsylvania, he would win North Carolina and Indiana would be the tiebreaker. Well, tonight we've come from behind, we've broken the tie and thanks to you, it's full speed on to the White House." She also talks about home foreclosures, economic pressures on the middle class, Myanmar, etc... Bill's standing behind her, looking a little more red-faced than usual. Maybe it's the reflection of the red visor and red boxing gloves Hillary supporters are wearing all around him. My husband just said he looks like an oompa loompa.

Although there seemed to be a little lack of emotion, she showed no sign of letting up. "I'm gonna work my heart out in West Virginia and Kentucky this month, and I intend to win then in November in the general election."

> Read the Full Post

Next >

Political Machine Photo Galleries

Candidates' Favorite TV Shows
Democrats Debate in Las Vegas
Laura's Trip to Middle East
Political Sex Scandals
The Not-So Traditional 2008 Candidates
Al Gore's Ups and Downs
Spokespersons!
Candidate Spouses

Politics Video

Mo Rocca - Rhode Island Is Famous For You

Mo Rocca - Rhode Island Is Famous For You

A sample from Mo's night club act "Mo Rocca Across America." Mo delivers (with factually corrected lyrics) "Rhode Island Is Famous For You."
Richardson on Dem race

Richardson on Dem race

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said it's time for the Democrats to unite around a nominee. (May 14)
Carville: Clinton should go on

Carville: Clinton should go on

James Carville says the Democratic presidential race should continue. (May 14)
The Googler on the Internets

The Googler on the Internets

President Bush make his debut on the 'Internets' and CNN's Jeanne Moos has the highlights. (May 14)
Why Bush quit golf

Why Bush quit golf

President Bush says he gave up playing golf because of the war in Iraq. (May 14)
« See More Politics Video