The AP is reporting that the flood of superdelegates has now put Obama over the top. From their story:

The AP tally was based on public commitments from delegates as well as more than a dozen private commitments. It also included a minimum number of delegates Obama was guaranteed even if he lost both of the final two primaries in South Dakota and Montana later in the day.

So there you have it. History was made today.

All day long a steady stream of superdelegates had been going Obama's way. The Chicago Tribune reported that at least 25 superdelegates were "poised" to endorse Obama after tonight's contests in Montana and South Dakota. 31 pledged delegates will be decided later this evening. Obama is expected to win big in Montana. South Dakota looks like a toss-up.

Even Clinton loyalist Diane Feinstein told CNN that it is time for Hillary to pack it in.

Get ready for a victory speech tonight.

We're down to the final 3 contests of the Democratic race for the nomination: Puerto Rico (June 1), Montana, and South Dakota (both on June 3). A total of 86 pledged delegates will be decided pending the outcome.

Hillary Clinton won Kentucky by 35 percentage points to net a total of 23 delegates. She also won by a total of roughly 150,000 votes.

Barack Obama won Oregon by 18 percentage points to net a total of 10 delegates (with 94% of precincts reporting). He won by a total of roughly 102,000 votes.

By nearly every count, with last night's additions, Obama has now earned a majority of all pledged delegates. There are 3,253 total pledged delegates in the contest, and Obama has guaranteed that when the final primary results are tallied on June 3, he will have won a majority of those delegates selected via the vote. That is true whether or not one includes Florida and Michigan delegate totals (however one might allocate them).

There are 795 Democratic Superdelegates. According to Real Clear Politics, Obama now leads Clinton in this category by 27: 306 to 279. The reason the pledged delegate threshold is important, is that many superdelegates are on record as saying that they will not go against the final winner in pledged delegates.

Lastly, for the very contentious popular vote tallies, we must tackle the issue of how to come to an agreed upon number. These numbers vary widely depending on how or whether you tally Florida, Michigan, and all the states that held caucuses. To my mind the whole question is rather beside the point, since, as it stands, the Democratic primary is a hodgepodge of contests whose main purpose is to give us a winner in terms of delegates, not individual votes. Whether we should amend this process for future races is another matter.

Kos makes what I think are the right points about this issue in a post that can be read here.

Obama wins big in Oregon and loses even bigger in Kentucky. And we've learned nothing that we didn't know before. Obama sucks with rural Appalachian type white people.

Is this finally going to convince Hillary to bow out? I don't think so, If Obama wins, her next shot at the presidency is 2016 and who knows where she'll be then. If Obama loses she may have a shot in 2012. Either way, it pays off for her to stay in. If Obama loses, she's set to say, "I told you but you wouldn't listen." And if Obama wins, she's done anyway and won't need to convince a bitter and angry Democratic party to turn back to her.

But let's roll the history tape back to 1976 and see another party nominee wannabe who just wouldn't admit it was over until the convention.

I think Hillary really sees herself as another Reagan. And if this is not her time, maybe next time. And if she can't win, she wants to be there on that podium, placing the crown on Obama's head and making the speech that steals the show, and gets the party all wistful that maybe they made the wrong choice.

Which is all hilarious of course, if anyone is Reagan in this remake, it's Obama, but I am telling you, this is how Hillary sees herself. Which may be why she's not getting out. Plus Puerto Rico is coming.

Over the past week, you might have noticed the change. The gunfire, raging so long now that it seemed as if we might never know life without it, has stopped. Well, not stopped altogether, of course. Rather, it has been aimed off in another direction. Yes, it appears that the days of Democrat on Democrat violence are behind us. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have stopped shooting at one another.

From The Washington Post:

...the reality is that both sides have declared an effective cease-fire as they prepare to bring the party together for a general-election campaign against Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)

Now, like all fledgling cease-fire agreements, this one stands on somewhat wobbly legs. We still don't have an official treaty detailing the specific terms of surrender. Even while Clinton no longer directly attacks Obama's credentials, and Obama scarcely mentions Clinton's name, except to compliment her, there is that tricky matter of the face-saving end game.

Good morning, bean counters! Yesterday, we examined the numbers heading in to last night's primaries. Today, here's where we stand.

Barack Obama increased his Pledged Delegate lead by 12, and now has a healthy 166 delegate cushion.

Superdelegates remain unchanged for the moment, but look for that number to rise in Obama's favor throughout the coming days.

Overall, Obama's edge over Hillary Clinton is roughly 150 delegates. Yesterday that number was 138.

There are now just 217 pledged delegates up for grabs for the 6 remaining contests. In fact, for the first time in the race, there are now more undecided superdelegates than there are unallocated pledged delegates.

In terms of the popular vote, a metric used to try and woo superdelegates, Obama nearly erased Clinton's gains in Pennsylvania. With 99% of precincts reporting, he won North Carolina by 232,775 votes while Clinton won Indiana by 22,412. That's a 210,363 net vote gain for Obama. He now leads Clinton by 2.2 million votes. Even if you factor in Florida, Obama still leads by 1.2 million votes.

Today's dispassionate math problem is pretty simple:

Via First Read:

Clinton leads Obama in the Superdelegate category by 16.5

As far as Pledged Delegates, Obama leads Clinton by 154

Overall, Obama leads Clinton by 138.5 delegates.

There are 187 delegates up for grabs in tonight's primaries. Liza Porteus Viana will live-blog the Indiana results, while Tommy Christopher will keep a running tab on the doings in North Carolina. See you tonight for all the nail-biting fun.

What kind of Tuesday are we calling May 6? Little Super Tuesday? The Tuesday to end all Tuesdays? Maybe not Super, but Really Important Tuesday?

Now that the residents of North Carolina and Indiana have been pandered to, bamboozled and otherwise rubbed up against, I must say that living in an earlier primary state, this card-carrying elitist (who actually should profile as a Clinton supporter) is a little miffed that nobody kissed my tushie this hard.

But getting down to brass tacks, its still just a numbers game. Did Hillary convince enough lunch pail Reagan Dems or Obama get enough arugula-chomping multiracial elitists?

Here's what MSNBC's number-cruncher Chuck Todd has to say:

Despite the fact that another month of contests is still on the docket, nearly half of all remaining delegates will get handed out tomorrow. And the math will be a lot more crystal clear after tomorrow, both in delegates and the popular vote. Following Guam, there are now 404 pledged delegates up grabs, and 187 of them will be decided on Tuesday. Plus, per our count, there are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Here are the basics of what each candidate needs: Assuming he wins half of the delegates tomorrow (93), Obama needs just 38% of ALL remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 2,025. If Clinton wins 94 delegates on Tuesday, she will need 66% of all remaining delegates. In addition, assuming that delegate split tomorrow, then Clinton will need 85% of all remaining PLEDGED delegates to catch Obama for the lead in that category. Moreover, if Clinton simply wanted to cut Obama's pledged delegate lead to 100, she'd need to win 62% of all remaining delegates after tomorrow. As we've noted before, the math is certainly difficult for Clinton.

On February 19th, Hillary Clinton's campaign reacted angrily to a Politico story that credited an anonymous source with the revelation that Team Clinton planned to go after delegates already pledged to Barack Obama. Pledged delegates, of course, are the kind that are awarded to a candidate after he or she wins a proportion of a state's vote or caucuses. In other words, a pledged delegate is something that is legitimately earned, as opposed to super delegate support, which can be given on a last-minute whim. My original column on the matter can be read here.

Well, when the Politico story appeared, an emphatic Phil Singer, a Clinton spokesperson, offered the following statement:

"We have not, are not and will not pursue the pledged delegates of Barack Obama. It's now time for the Obama campaign to be clear about their intentions."

Obama's campaign, who then, like now, led in the delegate count, had never been accused of going after Clinton's pledged delegates, but they pledged not to do so, anyway:

"We would absolutely not use these sorts of tactics. Senator Obama is focussed on wining contests and earning the support of pledged delegates."

Well, perhaps that original Politico piece was accurate, after all.