We have already discussed crackpot theory #1: Hillary 2012, which necessitates an Obama loss. In this theory she stays in not because she can win, but to make sure that McCain wins so she can run against him later. The downside and where the theory falls flat is the assumption that the party would forgive her enough to give her a plausible run.

Theory #2, which is plausible, is that she is staying in because the longer she stays in, the more leverage she gets. This article suggests that she will deploy that leverage to demand the Veep slot from a hesitant Barack Obama:

A person close to her, with whom her campaign staff has counseled at various points, said this week, "I think the following will happen: Obama will be in a position where the party declares him the nominee by the first week in June. She'll still be fighting with everybody -- the Rules Committee, the party leaders -- and arguing, 'I'm winning these key states; I've got almost half the delegates. I have a whole constituency he hasn't reached. I've got real differences on approach to how we win this election, and I'm going to press the hell out of this guy. ... Relief for the middle class, universal health care, etc.; I'm Ms. Blue Collar, and I'm going to press my fight, because he can't win without my being on the ticket.' "

Another major Democratic Party figure, who supports her for president, agreed: "It's not going to be a quiet exit. ... Obama has got a terrible situation. He marches to a different drummer. He won't want to take her on the ticket. But he might have to, even though the idea of Vice President Hillary with Bill in the background at the White House is not something -- especially after what [the Clintons] have thrown at him that he relishes. I believe she'll go for it."

However, several important Democrats aligned with Obama predicted that he -- and Michelle Obama -- will vigorously resist any Clinton effort to get on the ticket. Rather, Obama is more likely to try to convince Clinton to either stay in the Senate or accept another position in an Obama administration, should he win the presidency.

Presumptive Republican presidential candidate John McCain's hand-picked choice for convention manager, Doug Goodyear, resigned after Newsweek ran a story about his lobbying work and involvement in 527 groups in 2004 that were fined for improprieties.

McCain has denounced 527 groups as recently as this past February.

Goodyear, CEO of the DCI group, a consulting firm that lobbies for ExxonMobil, General Motors and the military junta that runs that great democracy Burma, said in a brief statement, "Today I offered the convention my resignation so as not to become a distraction in this campaign. I continue to strongly support John McCain for president, and wish him the best of luck in this campaign".

Astonishingly, the McCain campaign's first choice, Paul Manafort, was nixed due to HIS lobbying efforts for foreign heads of state that included Ferdinand Marcos and personal relationship with Russia's Vladmir Putin. The campaign was concerned about the appearance of McCain being to closely tied to Washington lobbyists.

Does John McCain NOT have anyone close to him that ISN'T a lobbyist? Does his staff need introductory courses on how to vet people? I'm sure they'll run and take my advice, but they might just want to expand their circle of influence before he starts getting called on this stuff in earnest.

Tommy has a great rundown, but let me add one interesting fact-o-tum to the mix. UPI is reporting that the Clinton campaign is out of money and canceling events:

The cash-strapped campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton has forced curtailments of political events and advertising as the primary season winds down, aides say.

...

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times reported options are being considered to allow Clinton a graceful exit from race with Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who leads in pledged delegates and popular vote.

One supporter familiar with the campaign said Clinton wanted to leave on an up note, possibly after winning a couple of the remaining primaries. The supporter also said Clinton would want a resolution concerning the seating of Florida and Michigan delegates, who lost their seats the Democratic national convention as punishment for the states' changing their primaries.

The last paragraph (emphasis mine) is an important one and the reason why she hasn't thrown in the towel yet. She will win in WV and KY, she may even blow Obama out, and this is where I disagree with Tommy, even with the late news, I don't think it's likely that she will lose outright. She will have more delegates and more bargaining power in a few days, so it would be quite easy to persuade her that she owes it to her supporters to stick it out for at least a little while longer.

And if that's so bad, why did Reagan go to the convention in 1976 and Kennedy in 1980. That was Kennedy's last hurrah, but Reagan weirdly enough might be an inspiration to Hillary (yeah I know!) . By going to the convention and fighting for his platform, he was able to set himself up for 1980, thanks to Gerald Ford's loss.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that Hillary doesn't care about the damage to the party, because she is setting herself up for 2012 in the face of an Obama loss. In this case, she would need Obama to actually lose, so again, her interests are aligned with McCain, not the Democratic party. If that's the scenario, she fights to the end, regardless of the delegate count. For the Democratic party, that's one ugly thing to think about. This is where my healthy dose of cynicism comes in handy.

Via ABC News, the inevitable has happened:

For the first time this campaign season, Barack Obama has surpassed Hillary Clinton's support among superdelegates, according to the ABC News delegate estimate.

The tipping point occurred this morning, when New Jersey's Rep. Donald Payne defected from Clinton to Obama, and Oregon's Rep. Peter DeFazio, previously uncommitted, saw fit to join up with the Obama wagon trail.

By ABC's count, that gives Obama 267 supers, while Clinton has 256. Later this morning, Clinton edged back with the endorsement of Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carter, so it looks as though she only trails now by 1 superdelegate.

UPDATE: Back up to a two-point lead. Obama nabs another.
UPDATE II: Make it a three-point lead courtesy of another California super, Ed Espinoza.
UPDATE III: Up to seven. Wilber Lee Jeffcoat (S.C.), Vernon Watkins (Ca.), Mazie Hirono (Hi.), and Laurie Weahkee (N.M.) all get on board Obama's bus.
UPDATE IV: Add five more for Obama on Saturday, including another defector.
UPDATE V: Since last Tuesday's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, Obama has picked up 24 superdelegates. Clinton has received 1.5, a net gain of 22.5 for Obama.
UPDATE VI: Hawaii's Sen. Akaka, and Idaho Dem. Chairman Keith Roark both give Obama the nod. Today's score, 4-0.
UPDATE VII: Four more for Obama.


My hunch is that many supers were waiting to see if Clinton was going to make a graceful exit from the race. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem like it's going to happen. Therefore, she has put many reluctant supersdelegates in the position of having to do the dirty work.

How dire is Hillary's situation? She is now asking fence-sitters for their secret allegiance. If your supporters won't publicly declare their support, you know you're in trouble.

Well, the proverbial fat lady, she has ditched the sotto voce and is belting it out loudly for all to hear.

Hillary Clinton sent a letter to Barack Obama today asking him reject any proposals from the Democratic Party that would not count the 2.5 million people who voted in the Florida and Michigan primaries.

Bringing back the painful 2000 presidential election outcome which gave Florida voters the royal shaft, "as Democrats, we must reject any proposals that do the same," Clinton says.

The Michigan delegates agreed on a plan last night that would give Clinton 69 delegates and Obama 59 as a way to get the state's 157 delegates and 29 superdelegates to the convention. The state's Democrats want the national party's rules committee to vote on the plan during its May 31 meeting.

The text of the letter is after the jump.

Everyone's counting Hillary down and out for the count, but you gotta admit, the girl's got chops.

Despite everyone calling for her to throw in the towel, she's truckin' along, counting heavily on those white women who love her. She's still got Bill and Chelsea traipsing all over the country. The former president stopped in nine North Carolina towns Monday.

"I talked to a lot of people that day, and one thing was crystal clear -- people want Hillary to stay in this race until every last voter has a say," Bill told Hillary supporters in an e-mail today. "That's why Hillary and I are working so hard. That's why we've made a deep commitment to keep campaigning, keep fighting, and keep winning."

Hillary today was in West Virginia, South Dakota and Oregon, Friday she will be in Oregon and Kentucky. Bill has five stops in West Virginia Friday.

While the Clinton camp continues to ignore calls from bigwig Dems to drop out for the good of the party, her campaign chairman says don't worry about a fight going all the way to the August convention. On the "Today" show, Terry McAuliffe promised that, no matter what, Hillary will only hang on for another month or so.

"It'll be over early June," McAuliffe said. "We've all said we'll be together at the end. If Hillary doesn't win, Hillary, (former) President (Bill) Clinton, myself, we'll be over there helping Senator Obama. And, likewise, Senator Obama will come together to help Hillary if she's the nominee."

McAuliffe said Hillary wants to make a point by staying in the race through the remaining primaries. He predicted she will win West Virginia next Tuesday, not that it'll make much of a difference for her. The remaining contests are Kentucky and Oregon on May 20, Puerto Rico on June 1 and Montana and South Dakota on June 3.

Today in Superdelegate news:

A defection. Virginia's Jennifer McClellan, who had both previously endorsed Hillary Clinton, has now jumped ship (along with George McGovern) and supports Barack Obama.

Clinton picked up Rep. Heath Shuler (N.C.), and Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth. Clinton won both of their districts yesterday.

Obama also got the nod from N.C. State Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek, and from Jeanette Council, also formerly undecided from N.C. And then came word that California's Inola Henry has declared for Obama.

Shuler and Meek cancel each other out, leaving Coucil and Henry as unmatched pick-ups, but because McClellan pulled their support from Clinton (-1 for Clinton, +1 for Obama), the net gain for today stands thus:

Obama 4, Clinton 1.

What kind of Tuesday are we calling May 6? Little Super Tuesday? The Tuesday to end all Tuesdays? Maybe not Super, but Really Important Tuesday?

Now that the residents of North Carolina and Indiana have been pandered to, bamboozled and otherwise rubbed up against, I must say that living in an earlier primary state, this card-carrying elitist (who actually should profile as a Clinton supporter) is a little miffed that nobody kissed my tushie this hard.

But getting down to brass tacks, its still just a numbers game. Did Hillary convince enough lunch pail Reagan Dems or Obama get enough arugula-chomping multiracial elitists?

Here's what MSNBC's number-cruncher Chuck Todd has to say:

Despite the fact that another month of contests is still on the docket, nearly half of all remaining delegates will get handed out tomorrow. And the math will be a lot more crystal clear after tomorrow, both in delegates and the popular vote. Following Guam, there are now 404 pledged delegates up grabs, and 187 of them will be decided on Tuesday. Plus, per our count, there are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Here are the basics of what each candidate needs: Assuming he wins half of the delegates tomorrow (93), Obama needs just 38% of ALL remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 2,025. If Clinton wins 94 delegates on Tuesday, she will need 66% of all remaining delegates. In addition, assuming that delegate split tomorrow, then Clinton will need 85% of all remaining PLEDGED delegates to catch Obama for the lead in that category. Moreover, if Clinton simply wanted to cut Obama's pledged delegate lead to 100, she'd need to win 62% of all remaining delegates after tomorrow. As we've noted before, the math is certainly difficult for Clinton.

... would be using her backer's slim majority on the rules and bylaws committee to forcefully seat the Michigan and Florida delegations (which she has the majority).

At this point, it would give her a 55 point lead in the delegate count:

"Hillary Clinton's campaign has a secret weapon to build its delegate count, but her top strategists say privately that any attempt to deploy it would require a sharp (and by no means inevitable) shift in the political climate within Democratic circles by the end of this month,'' Edsall writes in The Huffington Post.

"With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party's 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton, her backers could -- when the committee meets at the end of this month -- try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-member Florida and 156-member Michigan delegations,'' Edsall suggests. "Such a decision would give Clinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton campaign operatives. The Obama campaign has declined to give an estimate.

The article insists that there would have to be a major shift in the political climate for this move to be successfully adopted. (at least without major repercussions). And even with that shift, one cannot underestimate the level of hysteria and, dare I say it, Chaos that will result from the ranks of Obama supporters.

But on the other hand, Hillary knows that this is her one chance at the presidency. The stars were aligned, it was hers, and I think she sincerely believes that Obama will lose, and she will only be doing her party a favor. Even against majority wishes. If push comes to shove and we come down to continued muddle results, as in a split victory between Indiana and North Carolina, I think she could do it.