Face Off returns! Two of our writers will be posting separate pieces on a hot-button topic. You can check out both and then vote for the one that speaks to you and aligns with your views.

Today the topic is Hillary: Should she drop out?

Check out today's posts:


Denise Williams writes:

[A] reason to stay is the situation with the rules-breaking Florida and Michigan. Clinton's advocacy (albeit selfish) for these two "disenfranchised" states keeps the heat on to find an equitable solution to seating their delegates in August. Without her continued pressure on Obama and the DNC, voters in these two states may be put off enough to stay home in November or go to McCain.

Continue reading Hillary Should Stay In...

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David Knowles writes:

Last night in West Virginia, Hillary Clinton came away with an impressive 41-point win over Barack Obama. She shaved his popular vote lead by roughly 140,000 votes, and used her surrogates to continue hammer away on the point that Obama can't win with poor, undereducated white voters. The spin from Camp Clinton is that all of this matters in her race race for the nomination with Obama. But the math -- Oh, the dreaded math! -- speaks otherwise.

Continue reading Hillary Should Drop Out...

Last night in West Virginia, Hillary Clinton came away with an impressive 41-point win over Barack Obama. She shaved his popular vote lead by roughly 140,000 votes, and used her surrogates to continue hammer away on the point that Obama can't seem to win over poor, undereducated white voters. The spin from Camp Clinton is that all of this matters in her race race for the nomination with Obama. But the math--Oh, the dreaded math!--speaks otherwise.

From her resounding Mountain Momma thumping of Obama, Clinton netted a total of 9 delegates. That "Foggy Mountain Breakdown" means that as of last night Clinton has suffered a net loss of 19 delegates since Indiana and North Carolina. This morning came word that three more superdelegates were formally endorsing Obama. Clearly, this treadmill is moving faster than its runner--Hillary Clinton--can keep up.

By CNN's count, Clinton now trails by 168 delegates. Newsflash, with four remaining contests, and superdelegates flocking to her opponent, there's simply no way that she is going to make up that difference.

My prediction two weeks ago on Indiana and North Carolina proved to be total folly, today's foretelling will likely prove to be superfluous.

Today West Virginia Democrats cast their votes in a primary. They have 28 delegates.

Hillary Clinton will win West Virginia. And with a comfortable margin (8-10 points).

But it won't matter.

First Read's Domenico Montanaro makes a good point about why things aren't looking good for Hillary Clinton even though she'll win big in West Virginia today. The problem? Numbers:

Obama has now picked up 25 (with Romer would be 26) [superdelegates] this past week. That's more delegates than Clinton will net out of the West Virginia's 28 delegates at stake. And if Obama rolls out four more, he'd have gained more superdelegates in the past week than there are delegates at stake in West Virginia.

First Read is apparently sorely in need of a copy-editor, but the inference is a valid one. With the superdelegates now going over to Obama in droves, the remaining delegates that Clinton will net from West Virginia and Kentucky will be all but negated. Even James Carville seems to know the end is nigh.

If Hillary is imploding, nobody told the good folks in West (By God!) Virginia and Kentucky. She's still showing huge margins of support.

RealClearPolitics has the roundup:

Suffolk is out with a new poll in West Virginia (May 10-11) showing Clinton with a 36-point lead:

Clinton 60
Obama 24
Undecided 8

And Research 2000 has new numbers in Kentucky (May 7-9), where Clinton also enjoys a substantial 27-point lead over Obama:

Clinton 58
Obama 31
Undecided 11

Even with results like this, we probably won't see another shift in the race back to Hillary. These results are "baked in," they are expected, and in fact anything less than a 20 point margin may be looked on as a Hillary loss. Apart from some handwringing over Obama's lack of appeal to Appalachian voters, the Democrats will remind themselves that most Americans aren't from the hills and hollers, and that will be that.

And Kentucky and West Virginia will go red in the fall. The Democrats will just have to win without them, if they can.

The new ad airing in West Virginia by Barack Obama is a :30 second spot titled "Service." It makes sure to let the Mountain state voters know about his "Christian faith."

Although I reported last week, with much disappointment, that John Edwards does not intend to endorse a candidate before the Democratic National Convention, he seems to be finding other ways to get his point across. First, there was this possible "slip", and then, this weekend, he had some words of caution for Hillary Clinton. Via CNN's Political Ticker:

Appearing on CBS' Face the Nation, Edwards said Clinton has to be "has to be really careful that she's not damaging our prospects," with continuing to take jabs at Obama.

"She doesn't need my advice, she knows this full well," Edwards said. "If she makes the case for herself, which she's completely entitled to do, she has to be really careful that she's not damaging our prospects, the Democratic Party, and our cause, for the fall."

Now, I do still believe that Edwards would do everyone a favor by weighing in, but this may just do the trick. It sounded pretty friendly for a shot across the bow, but it was also unmistakable. The warnings aren't going to get any nicer.

I renew my recommendation that Hillary drop out now and accept the VP nod, while it can still look like it was her idea. The longer she holds on now, the harder the push will be.

The line is from The Rocky Horror Picture Show's double entendre-loving audiences, but it has its application to Hillary Clinton's exit from the Democratic Primary race. Ben Smith at Politico runs through some of Hillary's possible primary parachutes:

1. Never Say Die: There's no rule that Clinton has to drop out just because she can't win.

2. Extract a Job: Clinton still has leverage...force Obama to offer her something to make it stop - a spot on the ticket, a Cabinet post...

3. Cash Out: ... press Obama for fundraising help to retire her mountain of debt, then campaign for him hard enough that nobody can blame her for his inevitable defeat.

4. Kicking and Screaming: Sometimes, it takes a silver-haired party figure to tell the candidate it's over.

5. Racial Meltdown: Defections from black supporters such as Rangel and Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (Ohio) would threaten Clinton with the mantle of racial division, anathema to her husband's legacy and career poison in American - and particularly Democratic - politics.

6. Unconditional surrender: ...win his gratitude, and that of his supporters, by withdrawing cleanly and quickly, and working hard for his election.

If I know anything at all about Hillary Clinton, the primary calculation involved here will be how best to use her exit as a lever to her political objectives. This is a rare opportunity for her to make what lemonade she can from her electoral lemons. With that in mind, let's take a look at what she can do, what she should do, and what she likely will do.

Tommy has a great rundown, but let me add one interesting fact-o-tum to the mix. UPI is reporting that the Clinton campaign is out of money and canceling events:

The cash-strapped campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton has forced curtailments of political events and advertising as the primary season winds down, aides say.

...

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times reported options are being considered to allow Clinton a graceful exit from race with Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who leads in pledged delegates and popular vote.

One supporter familiar with the campaign said Clinton wanted to leave on an up note, possibly after winning a couple of the remaining primaries. The supporter also said Clinton would want a resolution concerning the seating of Florida and Michigan delegates, who lost their seats the Democratic national convention as punishment for the states' changing their primaries.

The last paragraph (emphasis mine) is an important one and the reason why she hasn't thrown in the towel yet. She will win in WV and KY, she may even blow Obama out, and this is where I disagree with Tommy, even with the late news, I don't think it's likely that she will lose outright. She will have more delegates and more bargaining power in a few days, so it would be quite easy to persuade her that she owes it to her supporters to stick it out for at least a little while longer.

And if that's so bad, why did Reagan go to the convention in 1976 and Kennedy in 1980. That was Kennedy's last hurrah, but Reagan weirdly enough might be an inspiration to Hillary (yeah I know!) . By going to the convention and fighting for his platform, he was able to set himself up for 1980, thanks to Gerald Ford's loss.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that Hillary doesn't care about the damage to the party, because she is setting herself up for 2012 in the face of an Obama loss. In this case, she would need Obama to actually lose, so again, her interests are aligned with McCain, not the Democratic party. If that's the scenario, she fights to the end, regardless of the delegate count. For the Democratic party, that's one ugly thing to think about. This is where my healthy dose of cynicism comes in handy.

Update: 3 more Supers go to Obama today. See end of story for details. 6pm:Make that 4.

As my friend, David Knowles, noted yesterday, Barack Obama has now taken the Superdelegate lead from Hillary Clinton for the first time in this campaign. After taking the lead, more and more supes began to fall Obama's way. Even before Tuesday, the delegate math had stopped adding up for Hillary.

The Political Machine also reports that Rasmussen has stopped polling the Democratic Primary race, Terry McAuliffe has signaled that the end is near, and negotiations for a VP slot are already under way.

In the face of such inevitability, the question is now, not if, but when Hillary Clinton Conventional wisdom varies a lot on this, from just after the Kentucky primary on May 20, to June 3, the date of the last primary, with some convinced she'll still go to the convention. I suggest a different date. If not today, then tomorrow or Monday. She can skip right over the defeat and go right to accepting that Vice Presidency, having ended on the high note of a victory in Indiana.

The alternative is to watch a flood of Supers go to Obama, and possibly even lose in West Virginia and Kentucky. She can be Rocky Balboa from the first film, or William Wallace's vanquished Braveheart.

Whatever happens, I want to see Democrats behaving with grace and good sportsmanship toward Hillary and her supporters. Obama himself has struck the right chord, as did Senator Claire McCaskill on Thursday's conference call, but the same cannot be said for Ted Kennedy. Worse than that, though, was this display of disrespect on CNN Tuesday night, which I have just now seen for myself.