Sources in the House of Representatives are reporting that House Democrats are set to allow the Congressional ban on offshore drilling expire at the end of the month when the fiscal year ends. If the report turns out to be accurate, it would represent an epic political victory for Republicans and underscore just how seriously the American people's demand for increased development of American energy sources shook Democrats' expectations for the fall elections.

A House staffer said in an e-mail that House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (D-WI) is telling reporters that Democrats on the committee are quietly preparing to drop language extending the ban from a continuing resolution soon to be passed. That resolution will fund government operations until separate appropriations bills can be passed after the election. The Congressional ban on offshore drilling is in truth a moratorium on funding for the processing of new drilling leases. Congress has annually renewed the moratorium every year since it first passed the funding ban in 1981. But pressure from minority Republicans and polls showing overwhelming majorities of the American people supporting increased drilling in the face of high oil and gasoline prices appear to have won the argument.

House Republicans have led the fight for increased domestic energy production, spending the August recess holed up in a darkened House chamber holding protest sessions of Congress designed to pressure vacationing Democrats to come back to Washington to vote on drilling legislation. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who once vowed never to allow a vote on drilling, nevertheless acquiesced somewhat when she allowed the chamber to vote on a limited drilling package last week. Republicans were not satisfied with the passage of that bill, and there were indications that the House drilling bill would not pass the Senate. Continued Republican pressure and widespread ridicule of the Democrats' energy bill in the press contributed to the decision to let the drilling ban die quietly.

If the report is accurate, Republican Congressional candidates and Sen. John McCain stand to benefit from successfully forcing Congress to bend to the will of the American people. McCain has made a call for increased drilling and American production a centerpiece of his presidential campaign. Democrats will attempt to take some credit for not standing in the way of the people's will by letting the ban die. But the energy issue has been owned by Republicans for the better part of the year. Republicans hope that the credit for it materializes at the polls in November.

Democrats in the House passed an energy bill today that will provide limited drilling expansion off small areas of the U.S. coast. The bill will open up drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf off the coasts of four states: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico off Florida. But drilling would be confined to an area no closer than 50 miles to the coast and no further than 100 miles. The bill also continues prohibitions on increased exploration in Alaska's North Slope, and the interior Mountain West.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) praised the bill, saying, "The American taxpayers have been ripped off for years on offshore drilling. This bill changes that." Republicans, who spent the summer recess protesting Congress' failure to pass an energy bill to deal with high gasoline prices, lambasted the Democrats for passing what they called a "hoax," an echo of comments Pelosi herself made when President Bush lifted the Executive Branch moratorium on offshore drilling. Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) vowed to make Democrats pay in the November elections.

"[W]e were outraged that Democratic leaders denied us the opportunity to have a full debate and honest vote on our plan. But the Democrats' 'no energy' bill delivers just the opposite. It's closer to 'none of the above' than it is to 'all of the above.'

The Democrats' 'no energy' bill blocks real exploration of the Outer Continental Shelf, Alaska's North Slope, and the Inter-Mountain West. It includes no emissions-free nuclear or clean coal-to-liquids technology. And it builds no new refineries, depriving our economy of the countless new jobs that would go along with it. Stressed-out families, seniors, and small businesses deserve better than this hoax. With Republicans by their side, we'll hold every Democrat who voted against lower gas prices accountable."

Pelosi and House Democrats were scrambling to relieve the pressure being placed on them to do something about gas prices. But in passing their energy bill, they may have only invited more pressure even closer to the election. Had the Democrats done nothing, the Congressional moratorium on offshore drilling would have expired at the end of the fiscal year just two weeks from now. That would have opened up the entire coastline to drilling. In limiting the areas in which more domestic oil can be produced, Democrats will now have to answer why a little drilling, which they once vehemently opposed, is a solution to high oil prices, while more drilling is not.

House Democrats said Wednesday that they were open to a vote on a Republican oil drilling measure, reversing their stand against the legislation. Republicans called that a victory in their summer-long efforts to get the House to vote on increased domestic production of oil as a means of lowering gasoline prices. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi steadfastly refused to bring up the Republicans' American Energy Act throughout June and July. But after an August recess in which many Republicans remained in Washington holding informal sessions on the House floor highlighting what they called Democrats' inaction on the energy front, and receiving good press for their efforts, Pelosi agreed to allow the vote under the regular order. In other words, the bill will be offered as a substitute to the Democrats' own energy legislation and will only need a majority to pass.

In her statement announcing the decision, Pelosi credited Republicans with forcing her hand.

"If [Republicans] want to drill offshore, we'll say, 'OK, You want to drill in the outer continental shelf? Let's have a discussion and a change of the relationship between our oil, which is owned by the American people, the desire of Big Oil for us to subsidize their drilling, and...the American people not getting the benefit of the profits.'"

Republicans call the Democrats' proposal on drilling a gimmick, noting that it would limit offshore to only those areas of the coast off of Virginia, North and South Carolina, Georgia, and the Gulf Coast of Florida more than 50 miles offshore. The Democrats' bill also would not open up access to the oil shale deposits in the Rocky Mountains and oil fields in the North Slope of Alaska. "Speaker Pelosi's so-called 'energy' bill will do nothing to help our energy crisis," said Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) "It will multiply red tape and make it almost impossible to lower already skyrocketing oil costs."

The irony here for Democrats is that unless they do something to prevent it, the Congressional prohibition on offshore oil drilling will expire in less than three weeks on September 30th, at the end of the current fiscal year. Democrats want to address the issue of rising gas prices, but are loathe to cross their environmentalist base. They could accomplish both ends by simply doing nothing and allowing the ban to quietly expire. Republicans, however, have skillfully drawn Democrats into a debate on their ground, more domestic production. Now Democrats will have to explain why they propose to expand drilling as a solution to high gas prices, and why more drilling is not more of a solution.

This is what happens when a Democrat embraces domestic energy production. In what was considered by most (including myself) as the most vulnerable senate seat in the country, Mary Landrieu has opened up a 16 point lead. Part of this is a big problem on the part of the Republicans to capitalize on an opportunity, but Rasmussen suggests another possibility.

At the same time, Landrieu has been one of the few Democrats to openly support calls for lifting the ban on offshore oil drilling. That issue is very popular with voters nationwide and in Louisiana. Last month's poll found that 75% of Louisiana voters favored offshore drilling.When "leaners" are included in the current polling, it's Landrieu 56% Kennedy 39%. Landrieu is seeking her third six-year term.

So while Daily Kos is crowing about their senate opportunities, they still are apparently oblivious to the reason that their most vulnerable Democrat is flying high. Stop and think what this election would look like if the Democrats jettisoned the environmental lobby and started campaigning on domestic energy, domestic energy jobs, and domestic energy production... in all shapes and sizes including oil.

The Republicans would be sunk. Good thing for them it won't happen.

If I may take a break from talking about "cross in the dirt" stories, McCain visited an oil rig today:

McCain rode a helicopter about 150 miles (241 kilometres) off the state of Louisiana's coast to visit the Genesis oil rig.

Jointly owned by Chevron and Exxon Mobil, the rig represents an environmental risk great enough that the US coast guard has set up a "safety zone" around its perimeter to prevent accidents.

"It is time for America to get serious about energy independence, and that means we need to start drilling offshore at advanced oil rigs like this," the Republican nominee said in his prepared remarks.

McCain and the rest of the GOP are still hammering away on this issue, and rightly so, because the left is giving every indication that they have no stomach for this fight. As was predicted by myself and many others, an election year, pocketbook issues come together to concentrate the mind of many a politician.

Even the hardcore are signalling that this is not the hill they are willing to die on:

That's the game, right there. The floodgates will open because they have to open. There's no way on God's green earth to find veto-proof majorities to re-up that ban, and no bill George W. Bush won't veto to stop it. Not a defense bill. Not a continuing resolution to keep the government running. Not a National Motherhood and Apple Pie Day bill. Nothing.

There will be a significant change in the Federal drilling policy within 30 days. Either the GOP will hold firm and get everything they want by default, or they will fold early and get some of what they want with a few bonuses like nuclear plants and subsidies and such. The Democrats are crossing their fingers and hoping for the latter.

It's not a flip yet, but it does show McCain could bring even more pressure on the Democrats over domestic energy issues:

In an interview with THE WEEKLY STANDARD aboard his campaign plane last week, McCain made clear he has not ruled out a change in his position--to one that endorses drilling in ANWR. "I continue to examine it," he said. So does his staff. McCain's campaign has been quietly studying the ANWR issue and discussing the potential consequences--good and bad--of a policy change.

But in our conversation on August 13, McCain added a new wrinkle. When I asked him if he had consulted Palin about ANWR, he said that he had not yet done so. He added, "I probably should," he said. "I will."

So I called Palin to ask what McCain can expect to hear. The answer is that Palin, who has been mentioned as a possible McCain running mate but has not been vetted, will make a straightforward case for drilling in ANWR. She says McCain's willingness to take another look at ANWR is "very encouraging."

Like Obama's recent flips on drilling, this flip would be toward a position that is much more popular with the public. But unlike the Dem side, McCain's move will make him more popular with his party, while Obama's flips dismay his own side.

Except of course for those who believe it was done for crass political reasons, that Obama is not serious about the current position. In other words, those guys think Obama is pandering, and they support him pandering because they think the true position is a political loser. Not exactly the strongest position for a politician to be in!

But McCain's willingness to move on ANWR is heartening for two reasons, one because drilling in ANWR is the right thing to do, it will create American jobs, help our trade deficit (oh and get us some more oil as well). And it won't hurt the environment, or even despoil scenic vistas, as the tundra drilling proposed is not scenic and no one goes there anyway. The biggest worry of the park rangers is that the Caribou might get too tame!

The second reason is that from the first I have had McCain pegged as one stubborn old man. Once he took a position however wrong, you could not make him see the light of day. That can be a good thing of course, but more often than not, McCain has dug in on positions that are diametrically opposed to what most Republicans want, immigration being a prominent example, but ANWR is another one. Maybe he can change his mind after all, although an impending election certainly appears to help.

After weeks of refusing to allow a vote in the House of Representatives on drilling for new domestic sources of oil, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) indicated today that she may indeed finally allow a vote on the measure. Republicans have been holed up in the House chamber, conducting a protest session of the House and calling on Pelosi to call the House back into session to vote on drilling. Some Democrats have also been signaling that they would like an opportunity to vote on drilling as well. Faced with growing pressure from the right and the center on an issue supported by more than 70% of Americans in some polls, Pelosi had no choice but to give in to Republican-led demands for a vote.

"They have this thing that says drill offshore in the protected areas. We can do that. We can have a vote on that.

But it has to be part of something that says we want to bring immediate relief to the public and is not just a hoax on them."

Last week, Pelosi told ABC News that Republicans would have to, "use their imagination," in order to figure out a way to get a vote. Republicans did just that, continuing the ad hoc floor protest for more than a week after the House officially recessed for the month of August. Now it appears that their creativity, and the good press they have been receiving for their efforts are about to pay off.

Boehner and Shadegg are throwing a protest in the recessed House of Representatives, and they hope McCain can join:

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain may be thrust into the public spat between House Republicans and Democrats over the Democratic leadership's decision to take summer recess without vote on offshore oil drilling.

The Democratic leadership allowed the legislature's scheduled summer break to begin August 1 without holding an up-or-down vote on increasing domestic oil drilling. Republicans stayed behind to protest the decision and have been delivering speeches on the floor of House in support of more drilling.

In a briefing with bloggers in House Minority Leader John Boehner's office August 5, Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz ,said he would "love to have McCain come speak on the floor" as part of the protest. He said he believes inviting a senator to speak on the House floor would not violate House rules and challenged House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to stop it.

They've been getting some press coverage, and they (Boehner and Shadegg) are hoping they can amp it up a little by getting McCain and his HUGE press entourage to pay some attention to their shindig in the well of the house. That's what this is about. McCain may well take them up on the offer, as it surely won't do him any harm, and may buy him some points with pro-drilling Republicans. He could use some points.

The other bulletin item on this is that apparently Pelosi and crew have gamed this out, they have let it be known that politically vulnerable Democrats are free to vote against them on the drilling issue, and she will make sure it never comes to a vote. Boehner is trying to end run that strategy by pointing out that the vulnerable Dems can put their money where their mouth is and sign a discharge petition which could force a vote. If I had to bet I'd still say that the Democrats will cave on this one. The question is when.

So, after a month of total information black-out in an eastern-European hideaway, I've returned to the multi-media buffet offered by cable TV, talk radio, and the internet. (Nobody actually still reads print media, do they?) I'm still overseas in a foreign country, but I'm back in the loop, and my lengthy privation of U.S. news offers a unique perspective on the political posture of American politics. In a flash, here's the situation in America at first glance:

Race is still an issue in the election, with both candidates fervently contending they are not the one talking about race. The issue remains so contentious that even the most absurd and tortured notions of racism are readily brandied about in hopes of alighting a conflagration. I should expect that anyone capable of being swayed by such obvious parodies of indignation would have long ago cast in his lot with the appropriately skin toned candidate. Hence, the accusations seem ineffectual panderings of a sort which deserve a backlash of sober disgust from the electorate.

Clinton has all but disappeared. Hillary, that is. Bill is still, well, being Bill (bringing up race all on his own, so as not to be left out of a national debate on the issue that every respectable candidate is desperately trying to avoid).

The New York Times hates John McCain. I think we can just leave it at that. Some things never change.

Obama is reeling and retracting in light of the recent surge in the polls enjoyed by McCain. A month ago, Obama was peering for the light at the end of the tunnel (he even had a presidential seal). Now the junior senator is trailing by a point in national polls and feeling the discomfort of playing defense. Obama is changing gears on off-shore drilling, fumbling on an overall energy policy and scampering to avoid a series of town-hall meeting debates with McCain.

That's just a snapshot of the political landscape from a newcomer's perspective. I would warn those who attempt to extend the present trends until November to forecast at their own risk. True, the Times will still hate McCain in November and Bill Clinton will still be groping for a spotlight. However, the exact temperament of the American voter is as yet a shifting and volatile variable. The fluid nature of recent polls illuminate one truth above all others:

The election is still up for grabs!

The White House announced today that the president will not exercise his Article II Section 3 power to reconvene the House for a special session to debate oil drilling. Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) and several of his GOP House colleagues sent a letter to the president last week asking him to call the House back if it adjourned without a vote on offshore oil production. Republican House members have been holding protest sessions on the House floor since majority Democrats recessed for the five-week August break last Friday.

In declining to call a special session, the White House stressed that the president could not compel House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to hold a vote on drilling, it could only force her to gavel open one session. "We don't have plans to call Congress into session -- it won't make a difference if Democratic leaders are unwilling to bring up a bill for an up-down vote," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said.

While the White House is correct that it cannot force the Democrats' hand, the announcement has to come as a blow to Republican members, many of whom have returned to Washington to participate in the protest sessions. They would have appreciated an assist from the president in forcing Democrats to open a session of the House without bringing up drilling for a vote. Furthermore, there are Democrats who are siding with Republicans in the effort to increase American oil production. Seventeen of them voted with every Republican in opposing the leadership's motion to adjourn for the August recess. Those Democrats may have prevailed upon the leadership to call a vote if the House was forced back into session. Nevertheless, Republican members will continue their speeches to a recessed House chamber all through this week.