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Updated RNC Schedule - Country First
As we reported yesterday, the Republican National Convention is taking a Country First, Politics Later tact in the wake of Hurricane Gustav.At a conference call this morning, RNC Chair Mike Duncan and McCain Campaign's Rick Davis re-emphasized the commitment to disaster relief and announced some new details.
By Wednesday, the Xcel center will be turned into a donation pack and ship. Thanks to the good people at Target and FedEx, 80,000 comfort packs consisting of personal hygiene products and snack food will be packed by delegates, supporters and sponsors and shipped out to the affected areas by Federal Express. The plan remains to do bare bones business only with very brief, non-political speeches today by First Lady Laura Bush and Cindy McCain.
The attempt here to wash away memories of Katrina with an out front attempt to remove politics from a political event (in itself a political move), may be a boon in the waning days of the Bush administration and finally make good on the promises of "compassionate conservatism". It's a win-win - good press for Republicans, good for the hurricane victims.
A Delegate's Goodie Bag
The vast majority of Americans have never been to a political convention, and the perception that delegates are wined and dined by various special interests and corporations is common. While that may be true for party big wigs and elected officials, the gifts lavished on individual delegates are comparatively modest.Each delegate at the Republican Convention received a gift tote bag, sponsored by Coca-Cola and the Southern Company, containing an assortment of small promotional items from various companies. The bags are advertising vehicles meant to generate good will for the companies more than than they are tools to woo special favors. The bag contains the following:
2 bags of Chex Mix snack mix
2 chewy granola bars (Fiber One and Nature's Valley)
2 Nature's Valley crunchy granola bars (not pictured but delicious)
3 Republican National Convention Post-It note pads
2 luggage tags from Delta and Northwest Airlines
1 AT&T gift card and special issue convention pin
1 Ford Escape Hybrid key chain light/compass/whistle
1 package of Sweet Alyssum seeds from Chesapeake Energy
1 package of Truvia artificial sweetener
1 windmill pin from the American Wind Energy Association
1 Windjammer umbrella
1 commemorative water bottle from VISA and US Bank
1 coupon book to the Mall of America
1 package of breath mints from UPS
1 box Limited Convention Edition Kraft Macaroni and Cheese
The bags may make delegates feel special and may even result in better sales of these products contained therein. But they are not a down payment on greater access to lawmakers and people of influence. American politics has not yet degenerated to the point where political favors can be bought for a couple of bags of chips and some granola bars.
Newt Gingrich Joins House Protest
Via a RNC memo, the GOP caucus in the House of Representatives is successfully attracting some names to their protest:
House Republican leaders confirmed today that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) will join House Republicans' ongoing national protest over the decision by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to adjourn the House without a vote on legislation to lower gas prices and increase American energy production. The former Speaker will join House Republicans in the Capitol on Wednesday morning to deliver a message of on behalf of the 1.4 million Americans who have signed a petition demanding that Congress increase American energy production.
Newt's always been good at this revolutionary kind of stuff, but his cachet has sagged as of late. No word from McCain yet as to whether he will show up. Minority leader John Boehner is also "live blogging" and I am glad to see that my own representative Jean Schmidt from OH-2 is there as well. I put the live blogging in quotes, because I really doubt that Mr. Boehner himself is sitting down at the keyboard scratching out a post. Plus the frequency is not all that high for a real live blog. But two hours is good and whatever staffer is assigned seems to be on top of things.
You've got to admit, the House Republicans have jumped on this issue like it's their best hope of having a decent November. Probably because it is. But yes, on the issues, it is crazy that we're paying high fuel costs yet have energy resources that we won't go after.
McCain Declares Victory in Iraq
...considering that last spring conventional wisdom said he was doomed for sticking to the president's plan in Iraq. But on the eve of Obama's visit to Iraq, McCain wants to remind everyone that this is his issue.
But it's not the silver bullet that McCain apparently thinks it is. Republicans and Democrats won't change their minds on the issue, and the independents in the middle simply no longer see Iraq as a top issue. The best thing here is that Iraq has been moved from a losing issue for Republicans to a neutral issue. That's a positive change, but it won't win them any elections from a pure political sense.
It's the economy, this election will go to the party and nominee that has the most credible plan to fix the economy and reduce energy prices. We'll call this the heating oil election.
Enthusiasm Gap Still Very Real
The Weekly Standard highlights the reception (or lack thereof) that John McCain has been getting in his own party. It seems that conservative Republicans are not at all excited about voting for the man who wanted to be a John Kerry's VP.
Can you blame them? From the Standard:
A Washington Post/ABC News poll last month found that nearly half of the liberals surveyed are enthusiastic about supporting Barack Obama, while only 13 percent of conservatives are enthusiastic about McCain. (who are these people -ed) More generally, 91 percent of self-identified Obama supporters are "enthusiastic" about their candidate; 54 percent say they are "very enthusiastic." Seventy-three percent of such McCain supporters say they are "enthusiastic" about his candidacy, but only 17 percent say they are "very enthusiastic."
A USA Today/Gallup poll reported similar findings last week. That survey shows that while 67 percent of Barack Obama's supporters are "more excited than usual about voting" for their candidate, only 31 percent of John McCain's supporters can say the same thing. More troubling for the McCain campaign is that more than half of those who identified themselves as McCain backers--54 percent--say they are "less excited than usual" about their candidate.
These numbers should improve after the convention. And if they don't? McCain needs a gut chuck, does he really believe he can win independent voters away from Obama. Polls are either mixed or they are saying "no". And yet so far, the McCain strategy seems to be taking the conservatives for granted and going after the independents. Note that this was not the Bush strategy, which was to raise the conservative excitement level and turnout to unprecedented levels.
It seems to me that the McCain strategy is depending on an Obama flameout, or that there is a well of mainstream voters out there that is just not ready to take a chance on Obama. Which would be 1968 and 1972 all over again. Nixon was not exactly charming and charismatic, but he was trusted by the mainstream, and he won.
GOP Retirements Dim Chances of House Takeover
Rick Moran is glum about GOP chances to flip the house back.
But then came the scramble for the exits among House Republicans and that vision proved to be nothing but a mirage. Like a bunch of theatergoers leaving at the end of the second act of a really bad show, a parade of GOP Congressmen appeared before the cameras, and one by one over the ensuing months announced their retirement. The list grew to include 22 members - many of them long-serving Congressmen who found themselves facing a well funded, and enthusiastic Democratic challenger for the first time in many years.
...
The math is frightening. With 28 seats up for grabs in 2008 on top of the 18 seat majority currently held by Democrats, there is a very good chance that Democrats, for all practical purposes, could win enough seats this year that the GOP would be a minority party for the next decade - and perhaps beyond. When 98% of incumbents in the House are victorious and redistricting looms in 2012, the chances of Republicans overcoming a 40 or 50-seat Democratic majority in the next couple of election cycles are slim.
This is correct, but it shouldn't have surprised anyway. The only thing that bothers me about this post is the lack of a sense of history even 12 years ago. The same thing happened post 1994 when it was the GOP in the catbird seat. There were many Democrats that retired, and a few that became Republicans (Ben Nighthorse Campbell was one of the higher profile examples). Which of course sank the Democrat chances of retaking the house for what turned out to be 12 years in the wilderness.
Many of the GOP retirees, among them Deb Pryce in Ohio, stuck out longer than they planned to as a favor to the party to keep control. Once control was no longer an issue what was the point. The GOP will not get control back this cycle, but this wave of retirements is overall a good thing for the GOP (and any political party). Fresh blood, new ideas, new faces will ultimately lead to less time in the wilderness.
Bush Isn't the Issue
Patrick Ruffini has some great advice for Tom Davis and the others who are blaming Bush for their problems. President Bush is a lame duck. His term expires in eight months. Politically speaking, John McCain is the leader of the party. Bush's term will overlap that of the 111th Congress by a whopping 17 days. Why should Republican Congressional candidates take the bait by positioning themselves vis a vis someone who will be a political non-factor once they take office? If they embrace President Bush, it's political poison. If they make a fuss of distancing themselves, it guarantees headlines with Candidate X and Bush in close proximity, and looks politically motivated. Don't take the bait. The challenge for Republicans is not to support Bush or to reject Bush but to transcend Bush. We are quickly nearing the point where the last piece of meaningful legislation will cross this President's desk. To suggest that Republicans might want to get around to crafting a post-Bush agenda ignores the fact that the post-Bush era is already upon us. It began March 4, when John McCain secured 1,191 delegates. Start acting like it. John McCain is the only national Republican local Republicans should be talking about. Bush is part of the problem to be sure, but primarily because Bush happens to own the loudest microphone in the world and he rarely uses it. Thursday's speech before the Knesset was a rare exception. Bush is not just a good communicator and never has been. And the new nominee also has never been tagged as an eloquent speaker... Which means the GOP has a very bad rhetoric gap! But as Ruffini says talking about whether to be close or far from Bush is really besides the point. Bush is over, his era is over, he has the power of the veto and the bully pulpit and that's about it. The baton has been passed but is there anyone picking it up? Read the comments at the NRCC (hat tip Michelle Malkin) and you will see. A lot of anger, but very little of it is directed at Bush. Blame him all you want, but he is not the source or the salvation of GOP problems. A very real lack of leadership toward traditional Republican issues is the problem.
GOP Hits Obama for Downticket Races
I remember quite distinctly a time when the GOP was hopeful that Hillary would win, as they were gleeful about using her for the general election prospects of congressional and senate campaigns.
But those concerns aren't deterring a collection of groups from testing the waters with anti-Obama ads in Mississippi and Louisiana. The NRCC, the conservative advocacy group Freedom's Watch and the campaign of Mississippi candidate Greg Davis combined have put up about $500,000 in advertising explicitly connecting Cazayoux and Childers to Obama.
The NRCC is up with a new spot in Mississippi's 1st District in which Childers is flanked by Kerry and Obama. The ad refers to Obama's ranking by National Journal as having "the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate."
Davis' newly released ad invokes Obama's controversial former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, arguing that Childers should have spoken out against Wright's divisive rhetoric but instead "said nothing."
I don't think that we have any evidence, yet, of a full blown Obama implosion, but it seems like the tide is shifting... slowly. One piece of key evidence is this AP poll showing Hillary over McCain by nine points. This underscores the electability argument she's been trying to make. And now she has something to point to.
The GOP certainly seems to be hoping (with audacity?!) for an Obama victory, and the resultant Wright baggage that will come with it. I maintain that Obama is the more dangerous candidate for John McCain, he's been rewriting the rules with the youth vote and energy. While against Hillary, McCain can just use the same old playbook.
McCain's Disdain for the Base
Here's John Mccain ripping on the North Carolina GOP for using one of the very few known effective attacks on Obama.
Here's John McCain throwing George Bush under the bus over the Katrina response. The problem here is assuming that a properly run efficient and competent federal bureaucracy would suddenly spring to existence under his watch. That's a crock. There isn't any such thing as conservatives know. And a conservative would say that it's stupid to declare that a manager in Washington DC is the best person to determine how much tissue paper to store in every Louisiana courthouse.
But John McCain is all up for signing up the Federal government to "do better".
But should we have expected any different? McCain is the nominee despite conservatives, not because of them. And he is now clearly taking the strategy toward the middle assuming conservatives have to vote for him, but there are other ways to express ourselves. Here's one:
North Carolina GOP to McCain: Ad Will Air
North Carolina GOP Chair Linda Daves remains defiant. Daves says the ad will air:
Contrary to any media reports, the 'Extreme' ad will run as scheduled next week. There has never been any intention to pull the ad and it will air.The state party's plans may be moot since some TV stations refuse to run the ad.
The 'Extreme' ad has garnered attention around the country. I want to thank the people across North Carolina and across the country who have shown overwhelming support for us. Our aim is to tell the truth and ask difficult questions. We will continue to do so. ...
Democrats in North Carolina are trying to inject race into this ad. This tactic, designed to further drive a wedge between the people of North Carolina, is despicable and wrong. This ad has absolutely nothing to do with race. It is completely factual and contains no information that has already received a public airing. Let me be perfectly clear: It is entirely inappropriate for voters to consider race when judging the quality of a candidate running for any office. If Senator Clinton had a pastor who made these same anti-American statements and the Democrat candidates for Governor endorsed her, we would be running the same ad.
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