Posts with tag predictions

Predicting IN & NC

By Greg McNeilly

May 6th 2008 11:38AM

Filed Under: Democrats, Featured Stories, Primaries, 2008 President

In the possible last (in)significant primary season edition of "prediction folly," we're gonna go out with a bang. After the jump, we have an uber-big prediction. It's mostly folly, but you won't know until it doesn't happen!


Today, the states of Indiana and North Carolina gather to cast their primary votes in the Democrat contest. For Hoosiers, the polls close at 7pm EST and for Tar Heelers they close at 7:30pm EST.


The polls are literally no help. They range from mega-leads for Barack Obama in both states, to Hillary Clinton narrowly pulling it out in either. Campaigns literally have a buffet of numbers to pick for backing of their particular arguments.


So it's up to the voters...those brave souls inside the voting booths to make their choice!

> Read the Full Post

Some Numbers for the Rest of the Silly Season

By Denise Williams

May 6th 2008 12:09AM

Filed Under: Primaries, Media

What kind of Tuesday are we calling May 6? Little Super Tuesday? The Tuesday to end all Tuesdays? Maybe not Super, but Really Important Tuesday?


Now that the residents of North Carolina and Indiana have been pandered to, bamboozled and otherwise rubbed up against, I must say that living in an earlier primary state, this card-carrying elitist (who actually should profile as a Clinton supporter) is a little miffed that nobody kissed my tushie this hard.


But getting down to brass tacks, its still just a numbers game. Did Hillary convince enough lunch pail Reagan Dems or Obama get enough arugula-chomping multiracial elitists?


Here's what MSNBC's number-cruncher Chuck Todd has to say:


Despite the fact that another month of contests is still on the docket, nearly half of all remaining delegates will get handed out tomorrow. And the math will be a lot more crystal clear after tomorrow, both in delegates and the popular vote. Following Guam, there are now 404 pledged delegates up grabs, and 187 of them will be decided on Tuesday. Plus, per our count, there are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Here are the basics of what each candidate needs: Assuming he wins half of the delegates tomorrow (93), Obama needs just 38% of ALL remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 2,025. If Clinton wins 94 delegates on Tuesday, she will need 66% of all remaining delegates. In addition, assuming that delegate split tomorrow, then Clinton will need 85% of all remaining PLEDGED delegates to catch Obama for the lead in that category. Moreover, if Clinton simply wanted to cut Obama's pledged delegate lead to 100, she'd need to win 62% of all remaining delegates after tomorrow. As we've noted before, the math is certainly difficult for Clinton.

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'If Ron Paul Wins Idaho I Will Get A RP Tattoo'

On my right bicep, to be exact.

Operation: RonDemption is beginning to build up steam, at least among the Ron Paul community. To help things along, I am offering to do my part. If Ron Paul wins the Idaho Republican Primary, I will get a Ron Paul tattoo. It will be either "Ron Paul 2008" or the "Ron Paul Revolution" design. So if you want to see a lifelong Democrat sporting some Ron Paul ink, forward this story to everyone in your address book.

For those of you unfamiliar with Operation:RonDemption, click here for details. Here's the Cliff's Notes version:


The plan is simple. Any Democrats or Independents who didn't vote in February's Idaho Democratic Caucuses are eligible to vote in the Republican Primary on 5/27/08. Idaho is one of only a few open nominating contests left.

It wouldn't take much for the Democrats, aided by the Ron Paul Army, to put a serious dent in John McCain, especially considering the low turnout for the Dem caucus.
I have even mended fences somewhat with the Paul campaign's press office. After the jump, more on the campaign's reaction, some suggestions, and a roundup of Operation:RonDemption quotes.

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Short Term Cooling For North America, Europe?

By Jay Allbritton

May 1st 2008 11:03AM

Filed Under: Environment

The New York Times reports that a team of climatologists created a decade-long forecast for global climate change. According to the model put together by German climatologists at two ocean and climate research centers, Europe and North America can look forward to slight cooling.

Now don't run off and demand a refund from Al Gore for that movie ticket you bought to see An Inconvenient Truth just yet. The cool down is attributed to shifting currents and patterns in the oceans and does not contradict a larger pattern of warming based on a build up of greenhouse gases.
The authors stressed that the pause in warming represented only a temporary blunting of the centuries of rising temperatures that scientists have projected if carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases continue accumulating in the atmosphere.

"We're learning that internal climate variability is important and can mask the effects of human-induced global change," said the paper's lead author, Noel Keenlyside of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Kiel, Germany. "In the end this gives more confidence in the long-term projections."
The group characterizes their findings as "preliminary". Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado said, "Too many think global warming means monotonic relentless warming everywhere year after year. It does not happen that way."

Hot Seat: Obama or Clinton in November?

By Coates Bateman

May 1st 2008 7:30AM

Filed Under: Hot Seat

Hot Seat: Who'll Win Indiana?

By Coates Bateman

Apr 24th 2008 7:36AM

Filed Under: Hot Seat

The Republican VP Contenders: The Governors

By Mark Impomeni

Apr 2nd 2008 10:00AM

Filed Under: Republicans, John McCain, 2008 President, Veepstakes

Gov. Charlie Crist (Fla.)

Governor Charlie Crist of Florida has been getting some attention as a potential running mate for Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain. As the popular governor of what will be a key battleground state in the general election, it is only natural that his name would make a list of potential Vice Presidential picks. But Crist vaulted his name onto the short list with his late, but well timed endorsement of McCain two days before the Florida primary. McCain's victory there over former Govs. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee propelled him into the Super Tuesday primaries as the clear front runner for the Republican nomination. Furthermore, the victory by McCain knocked former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani out of the race. Giuliani endorsed McCain the following day and it has been no looking back for the Arizona Senator.

Crist, 51, has served as a state Senator, Attorney General, and now Governor of Florida. He carries very high approval ratings, over 70 percent in some polls, and considers education, crime, elder affairs, the environment, and ethics as issues he has championed. The latter two he shares with McCain, who has sponsored anti-global warming legislation in the United States Senate and has been a strong voice against waste of resources and abuse of power in Washington.

Crist's selection as a running mate seems unlikely. Crist is viewed as more of a moderate Republican, and has no signature issue that identifies him to conservatives and party activists, a constituency McCain will seek to mollify with his VP selection. McCain figures to win Florida in November, with or without Crist on the ticket, and especially with the controversy over the Democratic Party primary in the state possibly depressing Democrat turnout.

Gov. Mark Sanford (S.C.)

Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina has been on conservatives' short list of potential running mates for McCain, even if he has not been on McCain's list. Sanford is a former Member of Congress in the House and is considered a stalwart conservative. Sanford is a budget hawk, an area of agreement with McCain. He is a tax cutter, earning high marks from the National Taxpayers' Union and a number one ranking from the fiscal watchdog group Citizens Against Government Waste during his time in Congress. As Governor, Sanford has cut taxes while focusing on government reform, economic growth and job creation, and quality of life issues in South Carolina.

Sanford, 47, is often mentioned in conservative circles as a future presidential candidate. He would be seen a shoring up a perceived McCain weakness on the economy and economic theory. He also would bring critical executive experience to the ticket. Sanford was reelected to his second term in 2006 with 55% of the vote, in a bad year nationally for Republicans.

Sanford did not endorse any candidate before the crucial South Carolina primary, although he was heavily lobbied by all the campaigns. His endorsement almost certainly would have swung the state to whomever he favored. McCain won the primary in a close contest over Mike Huckabee, which set him up for his momentum establishing victory in Florida. McCain is expected to win South Carolina in the general election, so a Sanford selection would be most useful in other conservative Southern states.

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Clinton Superdelegate Sees Obama Presidency

By Jay Allbritton

Apr 1st 2008 12:26PM

Filed Under: Barack Obama, 2008 President

There's something about foreign media that gets the tongues of otherwise guarded American political figures wagging when it comes to the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. A Scottish journalist notably quoted Barack Obama's foreign policy adviser Samantha Power when she called Hillary Clinton a monster. Clinton fund-raiser Niall O'Dowd compared Obama's former pastor Jeremiah Wright to white supremacist David Duke on Irish radio last week.

Today, Ben Smith of The Politico reports that Democratic Representative and superdelegate Emmanuel Cleaver of Kansas has joined the ranks of those speaking freely to foreign media. During an interview on Canadian public radio, Cleaver, a Clinton supporter, predicted a general election victory for Barack Obama. "If I had to make a prediction right now," he said, "I'd say Barack Obama is going to be the next president. I will be stunned if he's not the next president of the United States."

After expressing what he calls the Democratic party line that it's "good for America" if the race goes all the way to the convention, he added that he truly believed that if that happened it would be the "tragedy of tragedies." Of his support for Clinton, Cleaver said, "Even though I don't expect the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Indianapolis Colts, I cheer for the Kansas City Chiefs."

Mississippi Predictions!

Oh this one is h-a-r-d! Not. Obama wins.

125,000+ Mississippi voters (out of 1.78 registered) are expected to cast votes today for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. The Magnolia State has 33 delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

Neither candidate is in Mississippi today.

Dick Morris: It's Over

By Dave

Mar 9th 2008 4:37PM

Filed Under: Hillary Clinton, Democrats, 2008 President

Dick Morris is certain and his logic is sound:

The results are already clear. Obama will go to the Democratic Convention with a lead of between 100 and 200 elected delegates. The remaining question is: What will the superdelegates do then? But is that really a question? Will the leaders of the Democratic Party be complicit in its destruction? Will they really kindle a civil war by denying the nomination to the man who won the most elected delegates? No way. They well understand that to do so would be to throw away the party's chances of victory and to stigmatize it among African-Americans and young people for the rest of their lives. The Democratic Party took 20 years to recover from the traumas of 1968 and it is not about to trigger a similar bloodletting this year.

That doesn't mean that Hillary will withdraw, it just means that she will draw things out, hope for a scandal or an implosion, which is pretty much all she can do. Barring that, the only other option is to engineer a power play at the national convention with superdelegates. This is fraught with danger of blowback, and I believe that apart from hardcore Clintonites, most Democrats won't allow that to happen.


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