Face Off returns! Two of our writers will be posting separate pieces on a hot-button topic. You can check out both and then vote for the one that speaks to you and aligns with your views.

Today the topic is Hillary: Should she drop out?

Check out today's posts:


Denise Williams writes:

[A] reason to stay is the situation with the rules-breaking Florida and Michigan. Clinton's advocacy (albeit selfish) for these two "disenfranchised" states keeps the heat on to find an equitable solution to seating their delegates in August. Without her continued pressure on Obama and the DNC, voters in these two states may be put off enough to stay home in November or go to McCain.

Continue reading Hillary Should Stay In...

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David Knowles writes:

Last night in West Virginia, Hillary Clinton came away with an impressive 41-point win over Barack Obama. She shaved his popular vote lead by roughly 140,000 votes, and used her surrogates to continue hammer away on the point that Obama can't win with poor, undereducated white voters. The spin from Camp Clinton is that all of this matters in her race race for the nomination with Obama. But the math -- Oh, the dreaded math! -- speaks otherwise.

Continue reading Hillary Should Drop Out...

Last night in West Virginia, Hillary Clinton came away with an impressive 41-point win over Barack Obama. She shaved his popular vote lead by roughly 140,000 votes, and used her surrogates to continue hammer away on the point that Obama can't seem to win over poor, undereducated white voters. The spin from Camp Clinton is that all of this matters in her race race for the nomination with Obama. But the math--Oh, the dreaded math!--speaks otherwise.

From her resounding Mountain Momma thumping of Obama, Clinton netted a total of 9 delegates. That "Foggy Mountain Breakdown" means that as of last night Clinton has suffered a net loss of 19 delegates since Indiana and North Carolina. This morning came word that three more superdelegates were formally endorsing Obama. Clearly, this treadmill is moving faster than its runner--Hillary Clinton--can keep up.

By CNN's count, Clinton now trails by 168 delegates. Newsflash, with four remaining contests, and superdelegates flocking to her opponent, there's simply no way that she is going to make up that difference.

First Read's Domenico Montanaro makes a good point about why things aren't looking good for Hillary Clinton even though she'll win big in West Virginia today. The problem? Numbers:

Obama has now picked up 25 (with Romer would be 26) [superdelegates] this past week. That's more delegates than Clinton will net out of the West Virginia's 28 delegates at stake. And if Obama rolls out four more, he'd have gained more superdelegates in the past week than there are delegates at stake in West Virginia.

First Read is apparently sorely in need of a copy-editor, but the inference is a valid one. With the superdelegates now going over to Obama in droves, the remaining delegates that Clinton will net from West Virginia and Kentucky will be all but negated. Even James Carville seems to know the end is nigh.

Tommy has a great rundown, but let me add one interesting fact-o-tum to the mix. UPI is reporting that the Clinton campaign is out of money and canceling events:

The cash-strapped campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton has forced curtailments of political events and advertising as the primary season winds down, aides say.

...

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times reported options are being considered to allow Clinton a graceful exit from race with Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who leads in pledged delegates and popular vote.

One supporter familiar with the campaign said Clinton wanted to leave on an up note, possibly after winning a couple of the remaining primaries. The supporter also said Clinton would want a resolution concerning the seating of Florida and Michigan delegates, who lost their seats the Democratic national convention as punishment for the states' changing their primaries.

The last paragraph (emphasis mine) is an important one and the reason why she hasn't thrown in the towel yet. She will win in WV and KY, she may even blow Obama out, and this is where I disagree with Tommy, even with the late news, I don't think it's likely that she will lose outright. She will have more delegates and more bargaining power in a few days, so it would be quite easy to persuade her that she owes it to her supporters to stick it out for at least a little while longer.

And if that's so bad, why did Reagan go to the convention in 1976 and Kennedy in 1980. That was Kennedy's last hurrah, but Reagan weirdly enough might be an inspiration to Hillary (yeah I know!) . By going to the convention and fighting for his platform, he was able to set himself up for 1980, thanks to Gerald Ford's loss.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that Hillary doesn't care about the damage to the party, because she is setting herself up for 2012 in the face of an Obama loss. In this case, she would need Obama to actually lose, so again, her interests are aligned with McCain, not the Democratic party. If that's the scenario, she fights to the end, regardless of the delegate count. For the Democratic party, that's one ugly thing to think about. This is where my healthy dose of cynicism comes in handy.

Update: 3 more Supers go to Obama today. See end of story for details. 6pm:Make that 4.

As my friend, David Knowles, noted yesterday, Barack Obama has now taken the Superdelegate lead from Hillary Clinton for the first time in this campaign. After taking the lead, more and more supes began to fall Obama's way. Even before Tuesday, the delegate math had stopped adding up for Hillary.

The Political Machine also reports that Rasmussen has stopped polling the Democratic Primary race, Terry McAuliffe has signaled that the end is near, and negotiations for a VP slot are already under way.

In the face of such inevitability, the question is now, not if, but when Hillary Clinton Conventional wisdom varies a lot on this, from just after the Kentucky primary on May 20, to June 3, the date of the last primary, with some convinced she'll still go to the convention. I suggest a different date. If not today, then tomorrow or Monday. She can skip right over the defeat and go right to accepting that Vice Presidency, having ended on the high note of a victory in Indiana.

The alternative is to watch a flood of Supers go to Obama, and possibly even lose in West Virginia and Kentucky. She can be Rocky Balboa from the first film, or William Wallace's vanquished Braveheart.

Whatever happens, I want to see Democrats behaving with grace and good sportsmanship toward Hillary and her supporters. Obama himself has struck the right chord, as did Senator Claire McCaskill on Thursday's conference call, but the same cannot be said for Ted Kennedy. Worse than that, though, was this display of disrespect on CNN Tuesday night, which I have just now seen for myself.

Via ABC News, the inevitable has happened:

For the first time this campaign season, Barack Obama has surpassed Hillary Clinton's support among superdelegates, according to the ABC News delegate estimate.

The tipping point occurred this morning, when New Jersey's Rep. Donald Payne defected from Clinton to Obama, and Oregon's Rep. Peter DeFazio, previously uncommitted, saw fit to join up with the Obama wagon trail.

By ABC's count, that gives Obama 267 supers, while Clinton has 256. Later this morning, Clinton edged back with the endorsement of Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carter, so it looks as though she only trails now by 1 superdelegate.

UPDATE: Back up to a two-point lead. Obama nabs another.
UPDATE II: Make it a three-point lead courtesy of another California super, Ed Espinoza.
UPDATE III: Up to seven. Wilber Lee Jeffcoat (S.C.), Vernon Watkins (Ca.), Mazie Hirono (Hi.), and Laurie Weahkee (N.M.) all get on board Obama's bus.
UPDATE IV: Add five more for Obama on Saturday, including another defector.
UPDATE V: Since last Tuesday's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, Obama has picked up 24 superdelegates. Clinton has received 1.5, a net gain of 22.5 for Obama.
UPDATE VI: Hawaii's Sen. Akaka, and Idaho Dem. Chairman Keith Roark both give Obama the nod. Today's score, 4-0.
UPDATE VII: Four more for Obama.


My hunch is that many supers were waiting to see if Clinton was going to make a graceful exit from the race. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem like it's going to happen. Therefore, she has put many reluctant supersdelegates in the position of having to do the dirty work.

How dire is Hillary's situation? She is now asking fence-sitters for their secret allegiance. If your supporters won't publicly declare their support, you know you're in trouble.

Well, the proverbial fat lady, she has ditched the sotto voce and is belting it out loudly for all to hear.

Rasmussen Reports, the widely respected polling organization, has decided it has seen enough. From the company's Web site:

...while Senator Clinton has remained close and competitive in every meaningful measure, she is a close second and the race is over. It has become clear that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

At the moment, Senator Clinton's team is busily trying to convince Superdelegates and pundits that she is more electable than Barack Obama. For reasons discussed in a separate article, it doesn't matter. Even if every single Superdelegate was convinced that the former First Lady is somewhat more electable than Obama, that is not enough of a reason to deny him the nomination.

With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will end our daily tracking poll of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama.

What can you say? When polling firms join the chorus and decide there's nothing more to say about this race, you'd think that reality would have to start sinking in with one HRC. All that's really left for her now is to further divide and damage the party. It's her choice, I guess.

In a move that will rock the Democratic foundations, Barack Obama will reportedly announce his victory as the Democratic nominee following the May 20 primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. The bold (perhaps reckless) declaration will excite party loyalists and spark an aggressive response from the Clinton campaign.

Both sides will cite variously tortured numbers in support of their interpretations of the Democratic party's torturous nominating process. Obama's campaign will peg the threshold at 2,025 pledged and super-delegates (a tally excluding Florida and Michigan). Clinton will include those states and demand a total count of 2,209. Yet, Obama will not have met either of those markers following the May 20 primaries. Instead, Obama will have won the majority of pledged delegates (1,627) - excluding, of course, those from Florida and Michigan, which would raise the bar to 1,784 (which Obama will not likely reach on May 20). Clinton will also retort that pledged delegates alone do not win the contest, but only those Illuminati-esque super-delegate can finally award victory. And then there is the whole issue of the popular vote, which might not be in accord with the delegate count (with or without the two states in limbo).

Regardless of the dizzying math and rivaling perspectives, the inescapable result of an Obama declaration of victory will be that Clinton will cry foul. Both campaigns will then inundate the public with interpretations, constructions, statistics and a load of other perplexing formulations which will all boil down to calling the other candidate a cheat. The wedge between Obama and Clinton supporters will widen, and Clinton voters will engender animosities toward Obama which will make their conversion to his camp (following his inevitable nomination) all the more difficult. A Clinton vice-presidency will become less palatable as she resorts to personal dispersions against her too-presumptive challenger.

Obama's early declaration will be premature, and its effect will be to harden Clinton supporters and engulf the Democratic party in a bickering tainted with charges of fraud. Perhaps McCain could be so lucky that one of the campaigns would threaten a lawsuit. Obama's gamble will win him (unneeded) media attention, but it will not secure his nomination any sooner than would otherwise have occurred.

Today in Superdelegate news:

A defection. Virginia's Jennifer McClellan, who had both previously endorsed Hillary Clinton, has now jumped ship (along with George McGovern) and supports Barack Obama.

Clinton picked up Rep. Heath Shuler (N.C.), and Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth. Clinton won both of their districts yesterday.

Obama also got the nod from N.C. State Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek, and from Jeanette Council, also formerly undecided from N.C. And then came word that California's Inola Henry has declared for Obama.

Shuler and Meek cancel each other out, leaving Coucil and Henry as unmatched pick-ups, but because McClellan pulled their support from Clinton (-1 for Clinton, +1 for Obama), the net gain for today stands thus:

Obama 4, Clinton 1.

The first big superdelegate name to declare in the wake of Hillary Clinton's disappointing showing last night. Get ready. The flood is coming. Barack Obama heads to Washington D.C. tomorrow to talk to uncommitted superdelegates.

No doubt there are more than a few supers who'd like Hillary to make their decision a moot point. Geroge McGovern, the former Senator from South Dakota, as well as a former Hillary supporter and friend of the Clintons, doesn't appear to be content to wait.

McGovern had previously endorsed Clinton, so that means a loss in the superdelegate column for Hillary, and a pick-up for Obama. The message is pretty clear.

An e-mail from my colleague Liza Porteus Viana details McGovern's call-in appearance on MSNBC:

Not sure if you heard McGovern,

"I think the mathematics indicate Senator Obama is probably going to be the nominee. I have no regrets about Senator Clinton... but I think the time has come for democrats to unite and to get ready for a tough race this fall against Senator McCain. And that's why I'm hopeful that Senator Clinton will see fit fairly soon..."

He talked about his conversation with Bill Clinton, during which he announced his intention. Bill "of course wishes I had stayed with HIllary." But "we didn't have one single angry word." Bill did not admit Hillary's chances are next to impossible. "He recognizes it's a tough race but he didn't express any of those views."

Thanks Liza!

Update: Clinton gets a super of her own, post Indiana./N.C.