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North Pole May Be Ice-Free This Year

By Alan Duke,
CNN
Posted: 2008-06-27 11:49:41
Filed Under: Science News
(June 27) -- The North Pole may be briefly ice-free by September as global warming melts away Arctic sea ice, according to scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

"We kind of have an informal betting pool going around in our center and that betting pool is 'does the North Pole melt out this summer?' and it may well," said the center's senior research scientist Mark Serreze.

It's a 50-50 bet that the thin Arctic sea ice, which was frozen last autumn, will completely melt away at the geographic North Pole, Serreze said.

The ice retreated to a record level in September when the Northwest Passage -- the sea route through the Arctic Ocean -- opened up briefly for the first time in recorded history.

"What we've seen through the past few decades is the Arctic sea ice cover is becoming thinner and thinner as the system warms up," Serreze said.

Specific weather patterns will determine whether the North Pole's ice cover melts completely this summer, he said.

"Last year, we had sort of a perfect weather pattern to get rid of ice to open up that Northwest Passage," Serreze said. "This year, a different pattern can set up so maybe we'll preserve some ice there. We're in a wait-and-see mode right now. We'll see what happens."

The brief lack of ice at the top of the globe will not bring any immediate consequences, he said.

"From the viewpoint of the science, the North Pole is just another point in the globe, but it does have this symbolic meaning," Serreze said. "There's supposed to be ice at the North Pole. The fact that we may not have any by the end of this summer could be quite a symbolic change."

Serreze said it's "just another indicator of the disappearing Arctic sea ice cover" but that it is happening so soon is "just astounding to me."

"Five years ago, to think that we'd even be talking about the possibility of the North Pole melting out in the summer, I would have never thought it," he said.

The melting, however, has been long seen as inevitable, he said.

"If you talked to me or other scientists just a few years ago, we were saying that we might lose all or most of the summer sea ice cover by anywhere from 2050 to 2100," Serreze said. "Then, recently, we kind of revised those estimates, maybe as early as 2030. Now, there's people out there saying it might be even before that. So, things are happening pretty quick up there."

Serreze said those who suggest the Arctic meltdown is just part of a historic cycle are wrong.

"It's not cyclical at this point. I think we understand the physics behind this pretty well," he said. "We've known for at least 30 years, from our earliest climate models, that it's the Arctic where we'd see the first signs of global warming.

"It's a situation where we hate to say we told you so, but we told you so," he said.

Serreze said the Arctic sea ice will not be the same for decades.

"If we had a few cold years in a row, we could put sort of a temporary damper on it, but I think at this point going to an ice-free Arctic Ocean is inevitable," he said. "I don't think we can stop that now."

Reduced greenhouse gas emissions could "cool things down a bit," he said.

"It would recover fairly quickly, but it's just not going to happen for a while," he said. "I think we're committed at this point."

There are some positive aspects to the ice melting, he said. Ships could use the Northwest Passage to save time and energy by no longer having to travel through the Panama Canal or around Cape Horn.

"There's also, or course, oil at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean," he said. "Now, the irony of that is kind of clear but the fact that we are opening up the Arctic Ocean does make it more accessible."

The U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site -- NSIDC.org -- publishes a near-realtime image of the Arctic sea ice cover.

2008-06-27 07:23:43
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detectivenurse5 04:38:55 PM Jul 04 2008

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I'm almost at a loss for words. This is not only insult to my intelligence but also the world population and let me explain why. One reason is because the world's governments and scientists are down playing it significance. There is a reason it's called the North POLE. Global warming will increase, sea levels will rise, hurricanes will increase, volcanic eruptions may occur in an effort to decrease the atmospheric temperature, agriculture will be affected, wild life will be affected and the list goes on. Hey, but it's okay because now the Northwest Passage can be used for travel and oil drilling can now begin in the North Pole (nice touch from the media). However, Russia has already claimed the North Pole for itself. Here's an idea, let's go to war with Russia. Then we will be able to occupy the territory. You are wrong, if you think this can not happen, even with a brief disappearance of the ice.

corey9110 09:56:35 PM Jul 01 2008

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alright, all yall askin wut is causing this are FUKIN RETARTED...you cannot say this is a natural cycle.....are billions and billions of fossil fuel burning cars natural?????no way, if we dont reverse are carbon dioxide producing ways HUMANS WONT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT WHATS GONNA HAPPEN IN 2050...some retard is compring this to ice in a cup.....u wanna talk about the water levels rising??? the fukin ice melts and the water in the cup gets hottt. EVERYONE WHO DONT BELIEVE IN GLOBAL WARMING OR THINK ITS NOT BECAUSE OF HUMANS ARE DOWN RIGHT STUPID.....FUK IT!!!!! i know wut im sayin BUT I CANT CONVICE YOU ALL TO BELIEVE ME.....DONT LEAVE BITCHASS COMMENTS ABOUT MY COMMENT......FUK U IF U THINK THIS IS NOT caUSED BY PEOPLE

dalzell63 06:04:51 AM Jul 01 2008

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think of sea ice as you would ice cubes in a glass, as the ice melts the water level in the glass remains the same. It's when land locked ice like glaciers melt that you will see ocean levels rise the freshing effects will change if not stop some of the ocean currents , this will have a reversing effect on the warming trend in some places around the globe causing an Ice age effect in places like europe.

jimbobmpls 07:29:08 PM Jun 30 2008

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pkonk 02:03:12 PM Jun 30 2008 There is no increase in volcanic activity within the Arctic Circle or anywhere else.....Not necessarily true. The report on a joint study by Woods Hole and Max Plank institutes was just released. There is a tremendous amount of volcanic activity in the Gakkel Ridge. What is NOT clear, however, is whether this is something new or not. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/06/080626-arctic-volcano.html

pkonk 02:06:25 PM Jun 30 2008

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Oh, and regarding the effects of melting polar ice on sea levels, don't foget much of the polar ice is (was) above sea level to begin with, not to mention receding mountain glaciers and snow cover.

pkonk 02:03:12 PM Jun 30 2008

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The energy trapped by greenhouse gases does not simply stay as heat in the atmosphere. That heat can transform to add velocity to the wind, and warm air can hold more moisture, etc. There is no increase in volcanic activity within the Arctic Circle or anywhere else. Must be an "American Spectator" article picked up by Fox News and believed by the gullible.

elharleyco 09:29:05 AM Jun 30 2008

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According to Al Gore, when the Arctic ice melts New York City and Miami will be underwater. So what will it be Al? Are we all going to drown from coastal flooding? If and when the Arctic Ice melts there will be no coastal flooding. Al Gore lied and exaggerated to sell a movie and further his cause. If the Arctic ice melts by the summers end it will be proven that Al Gore lied about the coastal flooding. He is an alarmist and should be held accountable.

elharleyco 09:27:00 AM Jun 30 2008

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According to Al Gore, when the Arctic ice melts New York City and Miami will be underwater. So what will it be Al? Are we all going to drown from coastal flooding? If and when the Arctic Ice melts there will be no coastal flooding. Al Gore lied and exaggerated to sell a movie and further his cause. If the Arctic ice melts by the summers end it will be proven that Al Gore lied about the coastal flooding. He is an alarmist and should be held accountable.

jimbobmpls 06:49:26 AM Jun 30 2008

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wweronko - What is causing the changes in atmospheric pressure that cause the "unusual winds"? Maybe it is a natural cycle, but maybe it is caused by global warming. In any event, most climatologists are in agreement that the rapid ice melt is due to a combination of factors and not solely to global warming.

jimbobmpls 06:34:39 AM Jun 30 2008

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donedaytona 04:32:13 PM Jun 29 2008 Report This! jimbob, No where in this article does anyone mention the FACT that volcanic activites are causing ice melt ...........................The study on volcanic activity in the Arctic was just released. The impact on seawater temperatures and relation to the ice melting is completely unknown. Maybe it is a contributing factor - but maybe the volcanic activity has been going on for 10,000 years and has absolutely nothing to do with warming in the Arctic. Maybe the volcanic activity is much lower than is normal and is actually acting as a mitigating factor. NO ONE KNOWS. To claim it as fact betrays complete ignorance.

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