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Obama Reportedly Will Declare Victory

By DAVID PAUL KUHN,
politico.com
Posted: 2008-05-09 06:17:08
(May 8) - Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.

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Politico.com reported Thursday that Barack Obama plans to declare victory in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination on May 20. Time magazine is already ahead of him. The magazine's May 19 issue features Obama on the cover with the headline "And the Winner* Is..." The small type at the bottom reads, "*Really, we're pretty sure this time."


And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clinton's campaign plans to dispute it.

It's a train wreck waiting to happen, with one candidate claiming to be the nominee while the other vigorously denies it, all predicated on an argument over what exactly constitutes the finish line of the primary race.

The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, which pegs a winning majority at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates—a figure that excludes the penalized Florida and Michigan delegations. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, insists the winner will need 2,209 to cinch the nomination—a tally that includes Florida and Michigan.

"We don't accept 2,025. It is not the real number because that does not include Florida and Michigan," said Howard Wolfson, one of Clinton's two chief strategists. "It's a phony number."

Wolfson said they intend to contest the DNC's 2,025 number "every day," as well as any declaration of victory made by Obama based upon that number, because it does not include Florida and Michigan.

In January, Clinton won both states by wide margins when Obama did not actively contest them. The two states were stripped of their delegates for holding early primaries not sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee.

Obama will not reach the 2,025 magic number on May 20. Rather, on that date he is all but certain to hit a different threshold—1,627 pledged delegates, which would constitute a winning majority among the 3,253 total pledged delegates if Florida and Michigan are not included.

"On May 20 we're going to declare victory," said an Obama senior advisor who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, adding that after those contests they will be "the ones with the most pledged delegates and the most popular votes."

While the nature of that declaration of victory is "still developing," in the advisor's words, the Obama campaign contends that the winner of a majority of pledged delegates should be the party nominee.

"Senator Obama, our campaign and our supporters believe pledged delegates is the most legitimate metric for determining how this race has unfolded," wrote Obama campaign manager David Plouffe Wednesday in a memo to superdelegates. "It is simply the ratification of the DNC rules - your rules - which we built this campaign and our strategy around."

But the Clinton campaign's insistence on counting Florida and Michigan would alter not only the overall delegate math, but the pledged delegate math as well. Because if the two states are included in the count, the total number of pledged delegates would rise from 3,253 to 3,566—which means the magic number for a majority rises to 1,784, not 1,627 as the Obama campaign asserts.

By hewing to that interpretation, the Clinton campaign would thus be able to raise doubts about a May 20 declaration of victory by Obama.

Since the earliest possible resolution of the Florida/Michigan dispute is May 31, when the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee will meet in Washington to address petitions from Michigan and Florida DNC members, the 11-day period between the May 20 primaries and the RBC meeting could produce a chaotic stretch where Obama claims to be the party nominee while Clinton argues otherwise.

Already, the two campaigns are gearing up for the battle.

"With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days," wrote Plouffe in his memo. "While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or its millions of supporters, volunteers, and donors."

"You can declare mission accomplished but that doesn't mean that the mission has actually been accomplished," Wolfson said.

Avi Zenilman contributed to this report

2008-05-08 16:39:05
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3615 comments

eroticnewcpl 11:38:31 PM May 14 2008

Its about time . There's no way for her to win . He's the winner lets move on to fight Mc Cain now. AND TO ALL THEM CRY BABIES LETS STOP THIS **** AND MOVE ON WITH OBAMA. HILLARY PUT UP A GOOF FIGHT . BUT EVEN SHE WILL HAVE TO BACK UP OBAMA NOW. IF SHE DOESNT SHE WILL BE DISGRACED by the Democratic National Committee.and The Political Machine and peoples.

kvhagedorn 11:03:50 PM May 14 2008

If a negro can vote for the obamination because he's black, I can vote for McCain because he's white.

h3j3h3 10:37:42 PM May 14 2008

Cost of presidential campaign: Millions

Look on white bigots' faces when they have a black president: PRICELESS

BARAK OBAMA IN 2008!

jpmonk30 08:35:50 PM May 14 2008

why don't all you cry babies tell it to someone else you know who you are your easy to see the one's with I hate blacks on my shirt and bumper stickers. that's what it's really about, you don't mind that this bit.. lies to your face says anything to get your vote that's if you hate mongers are even registered to vote, usually you are not and probably never served in the defense of this country, some of you have but did little investagating of the people running and after obama is in office will you be man or women enough to say I made a mistake, I can and did I was a hillary supporter and once a very bigoted person but I grew up.
JP usmc 61/67

raasfv 07:50:27 PM May 14 2008

OBAMA... LOL... VITCTORY... LOL.. MAYBE IN AFRICA NEXT TO HIS COUSIN.. WHO'S MURDERING MEN, WOMEN AND CHILDREN BECAUSE HE DIDN'T WIN THE PRESIDENTAL ELECTION OVER THERE.. SO HE'S GONIG ABOUT IF A DIFFERENT WAY WTIH TERROR.. AND KILLING.. HUMMM PART OF OBAMAS' FAMILY.. AND WE WANT A MAN LIKE THAT HERE IN THIS COUNTRY.. I GUESS IF HE DOESNT GET HIS WAY.. WE ARE IN FOR RIOTS AND THE LIKE OF AFRICA

raasfv 07:48:12 PM May 14 2008

WELL THERE GOES ANOTHER REASON TO STOP READING TIME... IF THEY WILL STOOP TO THIS TRASH.. THEY ARE NO LONGER SOMEONE I CARE TO DO BUSINESS WITH.. ALREADY DROPED TIME WARNER.. AND NOW THE MAGAZINE...... HOPE ALL HILLARY SUPPORTERS WILL JOIN IN AND STOP BUYING THAT TRASH AND BOYCOTT THEM

hydroman02 07:47:01 PM May 14 2008

I'd vote republican before I ever syooped that low to vote for a racist like Obama.......

hydroman02 07:45:15 PM May 14 2008

Hey Kandeeapple, you must of ate way to many apples in your days...Why would anybody in their right mind want a Islamic nationality to be their president?? Sure the hell isnt me,i'd rather bow down to any woman then take any orders off that moron...WAKE UP AMERICA BEFORE ITS TOO LATE,,,,,,,,,The man has you all bafflled and confused by all his sweet talk that amounts to garbage..If he should win the presidentcy,the white race might as well kiss their azzes goodbye,he's nothing but a racist along with OprahWinfrey..............

kandeeapple56 05:15:24 PM May 14 2008

Obama should declare victory because Hillary will not go away unless she is publicly dragged through the streets displaying her as the disgusting disgrace she is.....she is a glutton for punishment, therefore she should be treated like the swine she is......Edwards just endorsed Obama, and Hillary needs to get a clue and try to act like a human being instead of an all encompassing butthole....

meg8907 04:19:19 PM May 14 2008

Obama seems like a nice person, but he is not ready for Prime Time. On the international level, he is a child--a naive child if he thinks he can "talk with" the terrorist elements. Jimmy Carter has tried that for years and failed. So have others with far greater minds and experience. I have no doubt that McCain will make mincemeat out of Obama in a debate. I think all the flak against the Republicans now is primarily because of the oil prices and the economy in general. I don't think Dems have the solutions for it either--certainly not raising my taxes--but I think most people are expressing anger on the congressional election levels. When it comes to the prez, they'll/we'll want someone who can keep us safe. That's McCain.

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