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Study Finds Rise in Stormy Weather

By FELICITY BARRINGER,
The New York Times
Posted: 2007-12-05 13:33:47
(Dec. 5) -- Across the United States, the number of severe rainfalls and heavy snows has grown significantly in the last half-century, with the greatest increases in New England and the Middle Atlantic region, according to a report released yesterday

Photo Gallery: Climate Change and Weather

Ed Andrieski, AP

Heavy rains and snows in the U.S. have risen by as much as 26 percent, says a new analysis of weather data from 1948 to 2006. Above: an April 2005 blizzard in Denver.

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Environment America, a national group that advocates new laws and policies to mitigate the effects of climate change, issued the report.

The report, on the group’s Web site, environmentamerica.org, is an independent analysis of precipitation data from 1948 to 2006 that was vetted by two climate scientists.

It shows that the number of downpours and heavy snows has increased by 22 percent to 26 percent across the country since 1948. Louisiana, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont were among the states in which occurrences of severe precipitation have increased more than 50 percent, according to the report. In Oregon and Florida, however, the incidence of extreme rainfall dropped slightly, though in Florida the drop was not statistically significant.

In some metropolitan areas, like Baton Rouge, La.; Binghamton, N.Y.; Bloomington, Ind.; Jackson, Miss.; Portland, Me.; and Reading and Williamsport, Pa., occurrences of extreme precipitation more than doubled.

“As temperatures rise,” the report notes, “precipitation will become increasingly likely to fall as rain rather than snow, increasing runoff and likely reducing water supplies in areas dependent on snowpack.”

The report’s release happened to coincide with the arrival of a destructive storm in the Pacific Northwest, where high winds and heavy rains flooded highways and left thousands of residents without power, prompting the governors of Oregon and Washington to declare states of emergency.

One scientist who reviewed the report, David Easterling, of the federal National Climatic Data Center, said that it contributed some new information on localized occurrence of extreme weather to the existing scientific literature. The findings of increasingly heavy rainfalls and snowfalls, Mr. Easterling said, are consistent with the prediction that climate change is likely to increase the intensity of storms.

“If you warm up the air, the air can hold more moisture,” he said. “And the amount it increases is not linear; it goes up exponentially.”

Another report released yesterday, by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, and posted on its Web site, pewclimate.org, detailed predicted impacts of climate change on four parts of the country — the Midwest, the Gulf Coast, Western forests and the Chesapeake Bay.

The authors said the Midwest was likely to endure more prolonged and intense heat waves, while the increase in Western wildfires was likely to accelerate. Climate change is also predicted to put more stress on the Louisiana coastal wetlands and to worsen an existing problem in the Chesapeake Bay of a summer “dead zone,” an area where the oxygen has been depleted.

Copyright © 2008 The New York Times Company
2007-12-05 09:49:32
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3298 comments

caborojo55 09:07:18 AM Dec 11 2007

Billami, for a person who claims to be older you show to be vey ignorant too. If you know evolution you would know that what you said "some" scientists have said about human evolutions was totally impossible. Evolutions operates over long periods of time. Maybe what you remember "reading' was some article I read byt some idiot on Time magazine. I was a biology student then, and i do remember laughing that off, and every professor who mentioned that did the same thing.

As of global warming/climate change, you again show you ignorance, typical of all Bushies. The dust bowl in the 1930's and what is happening now was totally different thing. At time NO ONE claimed that it was cause by global warming because it was a localized event. The average planedt temperature had remained steady. Today the phenomenos is diffrent. All scientific data shows that our planet (globally) is warming up. The average temperature for the plaet has gone up, the number of extreme weather events GLOBALLY (not lo

Billlami 12:01:00 PM Dec 06 2007

I love scientists' predictions. They just jump on the bandwagon so their name will get in print and they will achieve some noteriety in their lifetime. When I was young in the 50's, many years ago, scientists said that in 100 years man will have a tiny, skinny body and a huge head because man will all brain and no brawn. This evolution into the "new" man was to be caused by technology making us so smart that we no longer have to work physically to do anything! Machines will do it all. Well technology has made life easier here in the 21'st century but the scientists forgot one major thing...we still like to eat! And so our brain hasn't grown much but our bellys sure have.
The Dust Bowl years are another example of cyclic weather patterns. What would have Al Gore said during those years..."the earth is turning to dust!"

mouthegr8 08:07:11 AM Dec 06 2007

Stupid AOL I apologize but I only sent it again after AOL said it couldn't go send it later these were sent over a ten minute period. SHEESH

mouthegr8 08:04:31 AM Dec 06 2007

I'll try one more time, there will be lots more snow in the wetter parts of the world and a lot of the coastlines are going to be further inland. The deserts are already getting drier and spreading. The seas are getting fresher [less salty] because of the melting of icecaps, that releases more water into the oceans and into the atmosphere. This additional water will fall as rain in the more temperate zones [which are moving north in the USA] and rain will be diminished because of the increased heat elsewhere.

mouthegr8 08:04:00 AM Dec 06 2007

I'll try one more time, there will be lots more snow in the wetter parts of the world and a lot of the coastlines are going to be further inland. The deserts are already getting drier and spreading. The seas are getting fresher [less salty] because of the melting of icecaps, that releases more water into the oceans and into the atmosphere. This additional water will fall as rain in the more temperate zones [which are moving north in the USA] and rain will be diminished because of the increased heat elsewhere.

tgondolier 08:04:00 AM Dec 06 2007

One thing nobody can do anything about is the weather. It's all Bullshit

mouthegr8 07:59:34 AM Dec 06 2007

I'll try one more time, there will be lots more snow in the wetter parts of the world and a lot of the coastlines are going to be further inland. The deserts are already getting drier and spreading. The seas are getting fresher [less salty] because of the melting of icecaps, that releases more water into the oceans and into the atmosphere. This additional water will fall as rain in the more temperate zones [which are moving north in the USA] and rain will be diminished because of the increased heat elsewhere.

davidw1gdq 07:36:00 AM Dec 06 2007

Cape Cod got NO snow last winter. A first in 20 years.

nutmegdoug 07:35:34 AM Dec 06 2007

I would look to Al Gore to be our savior, but he flunked out of divinity school, so to whom should I turn?

msurlessc 07:21:02 AM Dec 06 2007

The Earth has weather cycles and as the Earth rotates the cycles can shift. We use to be in a Tornado belt then about 25 yrs ago it suddenly shifted and now they go NE of us. I believe the scientist are half right, but in order to get more $$ to do research they tend to inflate the facts to scare congress and the ill informed into giving up the $$. Please do your homework, think about it then open your mouth and speak up. Merry Christmas

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